2025–26 WSL Gameweek 9 Preview & Predictions
Manchester and North London derbies headline the round as City host United and Spurs welcome Arsenal; Chelsea visit Liverpool as Villa, London City, West Ham and Everton chase momentum.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Gameweek 9 serves up two massive derbies with major implications.
In Manchester, leaders Manchester City put their top spot on the line against cross-city rivals Manchester United in a derby that doubles as a test of City’s title credentials and United’s bounce-back ability after a shock defeat last week.
Across the capital, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal face off in the North London derby – a high-stakes encounter for “bragging rights” and precious points as Arsenal push to close the gap to the summit.
Chelsea head to Merseyside as heavy favourites against bottom-side Liverpool, but the Reds will be buoyed by finally getting off the mark and the memory of past upsets.
Aston Villa and London City Lionesses meet in an intriguing mid-table clash of last week’s giant-killers – both coming off statement wins that have injected confidence.
At the bottom of the table, West Ham United desperately seek their first win of the season at home against a struggling Everton, in a matchup that could prove pivotal in the relegation playoff battle.
With the season nearing its midpoint, every fixture carries weight – from derby drama affecting the title race to crunch games that may shape the fight for survival.
Manchester City vs Manchester United
Sat 15 Nov, 01:30 PM | Etihad Stadium | Broadcast: BBC
Model win probabilities: MCI 49% – 26% draw – 25% MUN
Manchester City
Manchester City come into this derby on the back of a 2–1 away win at Everton, a result that sent them top of the table. Vivianne Miedema and Khadija “Bunny” Shaw were on the scoresheet as City managed the big moments after the break to secure the points.
City sit 1st with 21 points (7–0–1 record) and have been in fine form, winning seven on the trot since a season-opening defeat.
They’ve scored 20 goals and conceded 9 (GD +11), averaging 2.63 points per match – a reflection of their potent attack and generally solid defence.
Form: W–W–W–W–W – a perfect five wins in the last five matches. Confidence is sky-high in Jeglertz’s side.
Manchester United
United were stunned 0–1 at home by Aston Villa last weekend, however, they have quickly recovered from the setback as they beat PSG 2–1 at home in the UEFA Women’s Champions League during the week.
That defeat to Villa was United’s first of the WSL campaign. They now sit third in the league with 17 points, holding a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from eight matches.
United have 19 goals for, 6 against (GD +13), averaging 2.13 points per match, which had reflected an unbeaten start until last week.
They remain a balanced outfit with a generally sturdy defence; their goals conceded tally (6) is second-best in the league.
Form: L–W–W–D–W – that loss to Villa snapped a seven-match unbeaten run. Prior to that, United had been building momentum with two wins and a draw in the previous three.
Squad Value Snapshot
Manchester City ~€7.33m vs Manchester United ~€6.27m – roughly 1.2× higher for City. This is a meeting of two heavyweights with plenty of quality on both sides, so the difference will come down to execution on the day rather than finances.
Head-to-Head
City have traditionally had the edge in this rivalry, losing just two of the eleven league derbies, with five wins and four draws. However, United have closed the gap in recent seasons. In their last five league meetings, both sides have won twice, with one draw, including United’s memorable 4–2 victory at the Etihad last season.
This suggests that United are currently in ascendancy head-to-head and are capable of getting a positive result come Saturday
Prediction
The model gives City a moderate edge at home (49% win chance) in what is projected as a closely-fought derby between title contenders.
City’s superior form and attacking firepower make them favourites, but United’s recent derby record and motivation to rebound after last week’s disappointment could narrow the gap.
Most likely scorelines: 1–1, 1–0, 2–1. A tightly contested affair with fine margins – a single goal either way or a share of the spoils – would not be a surprise too.
Aston Villa vs London City Lionesses
Sun 16 Nov, 12:00 PM | Villa Park | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: AVL 50% – 24% draw – 26% LCL
Aston Villa
Aston Villa arrive in high spirits after a statement 1–0 away win at Manchester United last week – arguably their best result of the season. A Miríael Taylor goal and a resolute defensive display earned Villa a famous victory at Leigh Sports Village.
That result extended Villa’s unbeaten run and lifted them to 7th place with 10 points (2–4–1) from seven matches (having a game in hand on some rivals). They’ve scored 8 and conceded 7 (GD +1), reflecting a side that generally keeps games close.
Villa’s points-per-match is 1.43, underlining that they’ve been tough to beat but have often shared points.
Form: W–D–D–W–D – Villa are unbeaten in five league outings, a run that includes two wins and three draws. That consistency in avoiding defeat has been built on defensive organisation and resilience.
London City Lionesses
London City come into this match buoyed by a breathless 4–2 home win over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, a result that announced their arrival as genuine competitors in the WSL.
The victory – their fourth of the season – has London City sitting 6th on 12 points (4W–0D–4L). It’s an impressive tally for a debut WSL campaign, though their goal difference is –7 (GF 11, GA 18), highlighting defensive frailties.
London City Lionesses’ underlying performance metrics highlight their struggles this season: their xG is 11.4 while their xGA is 14.7, resulting in a negative expected goal difference (xGD) of –3.3, or –0.41 per match. This shows they have largely been out-created by opponents, and the data aligns with their actual results and goal differential so far.
Form: W–L–W–W–L – the Lionesses have three wins in their last five. They rebounded spectacularly from a loss at Chelsea in Gameweek 7 to beat Spurs. The pattern suggests a bit of inconsistency, but also a fearless approach.
Squad Value Snapshot
Aston Villa ~€1.65m vs London City ~€2.30m – roughly 1.4× higher for London City. Villa will not be overawed on paper, but London City’s spending underscores their intent and depth, making this a fairly even matchup resources-wise.
Head-to-Head
First ever WSL meeting between Aston Villa and London City. The Lionesses are in their inaugural top-flight season, so there is no league history between these sides.
Prediction
The model leans towards the home side, giving Villa a 50% chance of victory versus 26% for London City. Essentially, it’s tipping Villa to edge what could be a tightly contested game, likely factoring in Villa’s defensive solidity and home advantage. However, this feels like an open contest. London City’s confidence will be high after last week.
Most likely scorelines: 1–1, 1–0, 2–1. A close, low-margin game is expected.
Brighton vs Leicester City
Sun 16 Nov, 12:00 PM | The American Express Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: BHA 55% – 23% draw – 22% LEI
Brighton
After a dramatic 1–1 draw with Liverpool, a result they rescued deep into added time last weekend, Brighton also suffered a disappointing 0–1 home loss to WSL2 side Charlton Athletic in the Women’s League Cup from an 18’ strike by Mary McAteer.
Brighton currently sit 8th in the table with 8 points (2W–2D–4L). In eight matches they have scored 9 and conceded 9 (GD 0), epitomising a mid-table balance – capable of scoring but also prone to lapses.
Brighton’s expected goals data for the season reads: xG 10.9 and xGA 11.2, resulting in an xGD of –0.3 (–0.04 per match). This indicates their performances have been almost break-even on expected goals, matching closely with their actual results and even goal difference.
Form: D–L–L–L–W – last week’s draw stopped a run of three straight losses. Earlier in the season they had back-to-back wins, so consistency has been an issue.
Leicester City
Leicester make the trip to Brighton after a 1–1 draw at West Ham, where they nicked a 97th-minute equaliser to break the Hammers’ hearts.
Leicester sit 9th with 6 points (1–3–4) and, like Brighton, will view this match as a chance to pull further clear of the bottom. They have struggled for goals with just 5 scored, against 13 conceded (GD –8) in eight games.
Leicester’s underlying metrics reveal major issues, particularly going forward: their xG sits at just 4.6, while their xGA is 11.1, giving them a negative xGD of –6.5 (–0.81 per match). An average xG of about 0.6 per game indicates a very limited attacking output, with the team generally unable to create quality chances.
Form: D–L–D–D–L – Leicester have managed to draw three of their last five, showing resilience. However, they have only one victory all season.
Squad Value Snapshot
Brighton ~€2.02m vs Leicester ~€1.01m – exactly 2× larger for Brighton. Both clubs operate with smaller budgets relative to the WSL’s elite, but Brighton’s squad investment is double that of Leicester’s.
Head-to-Head
This matchup has been closely contested. Across their last eight league games, Brighton have won three, Leicester four, with one draw. Last season, both sides won their respective home fixtures – Leicester took the most recent match 3–2.
There is no clear historical edge here, results have generally been balanced.
Prediction
Brighton are favourites according to our model, with a 55% chance of a home win. Given their superior firepower and home advantage, the Seagulls will be expected to take care of business.
Most likely scorelines: 1–0, 1–1, 2–0. The projections point toward a relatively low-scoring game.
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Sun 16 Nov, 12:00 PM | Totally Wicked Stadium (St Helens) | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: LIV 6% – 18% draw – 76% CHE
Liverpool
Liverpool finally put a point on the board last weekend with a 1–1 draw at Brighton, but it could have been even better. The Reds led 1–0 deep into stoppage time only to concede a 90+3′ equaliser that denied them a long-awaited victory.
Still, that draw halted a run of six straight losses and gives Liverpool something to build on.
They remain 11th(second-bottom) with 1 point (0–1–6 record, having played one game fewer than most). Goals have been hard to come by – they’ve scored only 4 and conceded 13 (GD –9). That equates to a mere 0.14 points per match, reflective of their struggles so far.
Liverpool’s underlying numbers tell the story of their struggles this season: their xG stands at 5.4, while their xGA is 9.9, resulting in an xGD of –4.5 (–0.64 per match). They are averaging well under 1.0 xG per game – the 2nd lowest in the league, and concede about 1.4 xG per match, confirming both offensive and defensive issues.
Form: D–L–L–L–L – the draw at Brighton was Liverpool’s first positive result of the campaign. Prior to that, they had lost every match. One slight silver lining has been that Liverpool scored first in each of their last two matches (against Spurs and Brighton), showing they can start brightly.
Chelsea
After a tense 1–1 draw at Arsenal last weekend. The Blues took care of business in the UEFA Women’s Champions league in the midweek with a commanding 6–0 victory away against Austrian side SKN St. Pölten.
Chelsea remain unbeaten and sit 2nd with 20 points (6–2–0). They are one point off the top and will be determined to return to winning ways immediately.
Chelsea have scored 15 goals and conceded just 4 (GD +11), demonstrating their typically excellent balance between attack and defence. Their points-per-match stands at 2.50, and they have yet to taste defeat as reigning champions.
Chelsea’s underlying numbers are among the best in the league: their xG is 18.4, xGA is just 8.8, giving an xGD of +9.6 (+1.20 per match). This means Chelsea create plenty of high-quality chances (averaging around 2.3 xG per match) and concede very few (under 1.1 xGA).
Form: D–W–W–D–W – Chelsea have four wins and two draws in their last six, illustrating consistency even when not taking maximum points. They are unbeaten in eight matches this season.
Squad Value Snapshot
Liverpool ~€2.67m vs Chelsea ~€11.88m – roughly 4.5× higher for Chelsea. This underlines a clear financial and resource edge in Chelsea’s favour.
Head-to-Head
Chelsea have dominated this fixture. In 11 league meetings, Chelsea have won 8 and drawn 1. Liverpool’s last league victory over Chelsea was three seasons ago – a 2-1 home win. Since then, Chelsea have won all five of their encounters.
This sustained record highlights Chelsea’s supremacy in this head-to-head matchup over recent years.
Prediction
Chelsea are overwhelming favourites here, with a 76% win probability according to our model – the highest of any team this round. On paper this should be a routine victory for the Blues. Liverpool’s chances of an upset are pegged at a mere 6%, reflecting the stark gap in form, talent, and experience.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 0–2, 0–3. The model sees a comfortable away win, with Chelsea likely to keep a clean sheet.
West Ham United vs Everton
Sun 16 Nov, 12:00 PM | Chigwell Construction Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: WHU 34% – 27% draw – 39% EVE
West Ham United
After a disappointing 1–1 draw with Leicester City last weekend, West Ham secured a morale boosting 5–0 victory over Southampton in the Women's League cup during the week.
The Hammers were on the brink of their first league win of the season last weekend, leading into stoppage time, but conceded a 97th-minute equaliser that left them crestfallen.
On the upside, that draw did finally get them off the mark – it was West Ham’s first point of the campaign.
They remain bottom in 12th place with 1 point (0–1–7 record). Goals have been painfully scarce – just 3 scored, with 19 conceded (GD –16). A points-per-match of 0.13 highlights how tough this season has been.
Form: D–L–L–L–L – that draw last weekend stopped a seven-match losing streak, underlining how tough their recent run has been.
Everton
Everton make the trip to east London after a 1–2 home loss to Manchester City. They were competitive for stretches against the league leaders and went into halftime level, but conceded shortly after the break and couldn’t recover.
That defeat extended Everton’s winless run to 7 in the league only.
The Toffees sit 10th with 5 points (1–2–5). They have scored 11 goals and conceded 16 (GD –5) – interestingly, the 11 goals scored is the highest of any team in the bottom half, showing that scoring isn’t their primary issue but keeping teams out.
Form: L–D–L–D–L – Everton have not won in their last 5 league games, with two draws and three losses in that span. They’ve shown flashes (like a 3–3 draw at Villa in which they scored late to grab a point), but consistency is lacking. Brian Sørensen’s team will target this match as one to turn things around.
Squad Value Snapshot
West Ham ~€1.56m vs Everton ~€1.50m – essentially level in squad valuation. Both clubs are near the lower end of the WSL’s financial spectrum, and their resources are virtually identical on paper.
Head-to-Head
This matchup has been closely contested over the years. In their last ten league meetings, Everton have won five, West Ham four, and there has been one draw. Last season, West Ham won 2–0 at home and drew 1–1 away, which means they are unbeaten in their last two meetings against Everton.
Everton, however, will be encouraged knowing that two of their five victories came away at West Ham – a sign that the away fixture has not been a barrier for them. The balance of results suggests a very open matchup, with no side having a decisive edge historically.
Prediction
This is one of the weekend’s toss-ups. Our model slightly favours Everton (39% win chance) over West Ham (34%), essentially calling it almost even.
West Ham will view this as their best chance yet to grab a win – they’re at home, coming off a moral boosting 5-0 victory over Southampton.
Everton will also fancy this given West Ham’s position. It could come down to who handles the pressure better.
Most likely scorelines: 1–1, 0–1, 1–0. A low-scoring affair is anticipated. 1–1 is on the cards if neither side can find a clinical finish to pull away.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
Sun 16 Nov, 02:30 PM | The BetWright Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: TOT 13% – 21% draw – 66% ARS
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham host their North London rivals after a sobering 2–4 defeat away at London City Lionesses last week.
Spurs twice battled back to equalise in that game, but ultimately defensive frailties and a late collapse cost them.
It was a performance of bright attacking moments undone by costly concessions (including an own goal).
Tottenham now find themselves 5th with 15 points (5–0–3), and that loss halted what had been a strong start to the season. Their goal tally stands at 11 for, 12 against (GD –1), which is striking for a side in the top five – it indicates many of their games have been tight and low-scoring.
Form: L–W–L–W–W – Tottenham’s last five continue a pattern of inconsistency, alternating losses and wins. They had won three of four before the London City setback, so the ability is there – but so is defensive vulnerability.
Arsenal
After a dramatic 1–1 draw with Chelsea at the Emirates last weekend, Arsenal travelled to face German champions Bayern Munich in the UEFA Women’s Champions League. Despite holding a comfortable 2–0 lead at halftime, they lost 3–2.
The Gunners will be looking to quickly put that result behind them as they face their north London neighbour this weekend.
Arsenal are 4th with 15 points (4–3–1), level on points with Spurs but ahead on goal difference.
They have 18 goals scored and 8 conceded (GD +10), and average 1.88 points per match.
Form: D–W–W–L–D – in the last five, Arsenal have two wins, two draws, and a loss. That defeat (a narrow one to Man City in late October) is their only stumble in the past six weeks.
Squad Value Snapshot
Tottenham ~€2.29m vs Arsenal ~€9.44m – roughly 4.1× higher for Arsenal. Despite Spurs league position, the gulf in squad investment between these two clubs is enormous.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal have been overwhelmingly dominant in this matchup, winning 9 and drawing 2 of the last 11 league meetings. Spurs’ sole victory was a 1–0 home win two seasons ago; all other recent encounters have gone Arsenal’s way, usually by comfortable margins.
This record gives Arsenal a clear historical advantage in the fixture.
Prediction
Arsenal are strong favourites according to our model (66% win probability). They simply have more quality across the pitch and far greater depth. If both teams play to form, Arsenal should emerge with three points.
Most likely scorelines: 0–2, 0–1, 1–2. The model sees Arsenal winning with a clean sheet or by a single-goal margin.
Final Word
Favourites: On paper, this round’s fixtures have some clear favourites. Chelsea and Arsenal come in as the strongest picks – the model heavily backs both to win their games. Brighton and Aston Villa, have also been given slight nod.
The headline matches in Manchester and North London will draw the spotlight. The City vs United derby pits first against third and could have a significant impact on the title race momentum – City have a chance to create a gap, while United will be eager to close it and recover from last week’s hiccup.
Arsenal’s visit to Tottenham, while heavily weighted towards the Gunners by the numbers, is still a derby – and derby logic often defies statistical logic. Arsenal can’t afford any slip as they chase the top, and Spurs would love nothing more than to derail their rivals’ charge.
Matter of urgency: At the bottom, both Liverpool and West Ham finally got off the mark in Gameweek 8 with their first points, but the task ahead remains daunting. They both still seek a first win.
Missed last week? Catch the full Gameweek 8 Recap + analysis in our archive.
Data sources: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FBref & FotMob
Thanks as always for the excellent article!
I got really excited when you said arsenal had a game in hand on the top three but I checked and we really don't (though I wish we did points wise lolol) 😂