WSL 2025–26 Gameweek 5: Preview & Predictions
Title contenders collide as Manchester United host Chelsea and Man City face Arsenal, while every other fixture promises razor-thin margins across the table.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Gameweek 5 kicks off Friday night with a blockbuster: Manchester United host league leaders Chelsea in a top-two clash. United remain unbeaten with the league’s best defence, but Chelsea’s perfect start and dominant head-to-head record set the stage for a high-stakes showdown.
Saturday’s early kick-off sees Manchester City welcome Arsenal in another heavyweight meeting. City have been free-scoring but more open at the back, while Arsenal arrive unbeaten and with recent success at the Joie Stadium. A pivotal six-pointer in the title race.
Sunday’s slate opens with Leicester vs Everton, two sides still searching for rhythm. Leicester’s home record in the head-to-head gives them confidence, but Everton’s competitive edge keeps this one delicately balanced.
At Chigwell, West Ham face Aston Villa in a clash of winless sides. The Hammers are rooted bottom after four straight defeats, while Villa’s late equaliser at Arsenal showed resilience. Both need a result to lift momentum.
Meanwhile, Tottenham vs Brighton looks a genuine mid-table swing game. Spurs bounced back strongly at Leicester, while Brighton’s balance and defensive improvement underlines their progress. Margins are likely to be tight again.
Finally, London City Lionesses host Liverpool with both sides struggling at the wrong end. LCL’s spirited displays have been offset by defensive leaks, while Liverpool’s attack has stalled with just one goal in four. A narrow contest looms at Copperjax.
With the top four colliding across two days and points at a premium for those lower down, this round could prove season-shaping — stretching gaps at both ends of the table or closing them dramatically.
G1 — Manchester United vs Chelsea
Fri 3 Oct, 7:30 PM | Progress with Unity Stadium | Broadcast: BBC
Model win probabilities: MUN 29% — 26% draw — CHE 45%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Manchester United (2nd)
Professional 2–0 away win at Liverpool last time out (Miyazawa 4′, Toone 45+2′) — solid control, limited Liverpool to 2 shots on target.
Sitting 2nd, unbeaten in four with the league’s best goal difference (+10) and just one goal conceded — they’re creating far more chances than they give up.
Chelsea (1st)
Blew West Ham away 4–0, effectively done inside 15 minutes; controlled the rest with ease despite the Hammers’ red card.
Top of the table with four wins from four (12 points), 10 goals scored and only 2 conceded — a team in control at both ends of the pitch.
Squad Value Snapshot
Chelsea ~€11.9m vs Manchester United ~€6.3m — roughly 1.9× higher, signalling a depth/quality edge on paper.
Head-to-Head
Chelsea holds a commanding historical record against Manchester United, with 14 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss in 16 meetings. In the WSL, Chelsea has won all of their last 5 meetings with an aggregate of 12–1. Even when tight, as was the last two matches(1-0, 0-1), margins have tilted blue.
Prediction
Chelsea’s broader chance creation, depth and historical dominance give them a slight nod at 45% win probability, but there has been a significant shift in underlying competitive dynamics to suggest that United can certainly get something out of this match.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 1–2, 1–1.
G2 — Manchester City vs Arsenal
Sat 4 Oct, 12:00 PM | Joie Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports Main Event
Model win probabilities: MCI 33% — 28% draw — ARS 39%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Manchester City (3rd)
Rolled LCL 4–1 last weekend; sharp start again with early goals and sustained pressure.
Free-scoring with 12 goals already, though more open at the back (5 conceded); their matches have been the most end-to-end so far.
Arsenal (5th)
1–1 vs Aston Villa after a stoppage-time equaliser conceded — strong control for long spells but didn’t kill the game. They will look to bounce back.
Two wins and two draws, with a strong +7 goal difference; they’ve been solid defensively and hard to beat.
Squad Value Snapshot
Arsenal ~€9.44m vs Manchester City ~€7.33m — roughly 1.3× higher, hinting at a slight depth/quality edge for the visitors on paper.
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head form between City and Arsenal has been very tight. In the last five meetings across all competitions, both teams have two wins each, with one draw.
In the WSL alone, City are yet to win Arsenal in their last 5 meetings. In fact, Arsenal have won twice on the bounce at City ground.
Prediction
Model gives a slight Arsenal edge (39%) with City still very live at 33%; draw sits at 28%.
Most likely scorelines: 1–2, 0–1, 1–1.
G3 — Leicester City vs Everton
Sun 5 Oct, 11:55 AM | King Power Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: LEI 34% — 28% draw — EVE 37%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Leicester City (8th)
Narrow 1–2 loss to Spurs last weekend after fighting back before half-time; compact shape and set-piece threat kept them in it.
Still looking for rhythm with only 2 goals scored and 7 conceded; they’ve struggled to turn effort into points.
Everton (7th)
Edged out 0–1 at Brighton in a tight game; struggled for incision in the final third despite decent spells.
Just one win, but has been competitive in most of the games (5 scored, 6 conceded); capable of pulling off results against stronger sides.
Squad Value Snapshot
Everton ~€1.46m vs Leicester ~€1.01m — roughly 1.4× higher, hinting at a slight depth/quality edge for the visitors on paper.
Head-to-Head (WSL)
Recent meetings lean Leicester’s way. Last five WSL games: Leicester 3 wins, Everton 1 win, 1 draw. Leicester put together three straight 1–0s (Oct ’23 → Oct ’24) before Everton snapped it 4–1 in Feb ’25.
Leicester are unbeaten at home in the last three vs Everton (W2, D1), while Everton’s success has come at Walton Hall Park, including that 4–1.
Prediction
Slight away lean, low-margin game: Everton has slightly edge it on paper, but Leicester’s home edge and the head-to-head trend keep this close (EVE 39%). This is a tough one.
Most likely scorelines: 1–1, 0–1, 1–0.
G4 — West Ham United vs Aston Villa
Sun 5 Oct, 11:55 AM | Chigwell Construction Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports+ app
Model win probabilities: WHU 28% — 27% draw — AVL 45%
Baseline, Form & Squad
West Ham (12th)
Suffered a 4–0 defeat to Chelsea last weekend — effectively out of the contest after 15 minutes and reduced to 10 players on 23′ (Belloumou red). They failed to register a single shot on target.
Bottom of the table with four straight losses, 14 conceded and only 2 scored — needing defensive stability and attacking spark to climb out of trouble.
Aston Villa (10th)
Dramatic 1–1 draw away at Arsenal, Lucy Parker’s stoppage-time equaliser (90+5′) snatching a point. Showed resilience and threat from set pieces.
Winless in three (2 draws, 1 loss) but competitive, with a –2 goal difference suggesting they’re closer to turning draws into wins.
Squad Value Snapshot
Aston Villa ~€1.65m vs West Ham ~€1.56m — essentially level (Villa ~1.06×), so little to choose on paper.
Head-to-Head (WSL)
Villa are unbeaten in their last five meetings (3 wins, 2 draws), including a 2–3 away win at Chigwell last October.
Villa won both ties last season, 2-3 away and 3-1 at home.
Prediction
Model gives Villa the edge (45%), West Ham at 28%, draw 27%.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 1–1, 1–2.
G5 — Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton
Sun 5 Oct, 11:55 AM | BetWright Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Go Extra
Model win probabilities: TOT 35% — 26% draw — BHA 39%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Tottenham (4th)
Bounced back from the City thrashing with a gritty 2–1 away win at Leicester (Tandberg 15′, Holdt 21′).
Three wins from four (9 points), sitting 4th; 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. Patchy at the back but sharper in attack, +0 GD overall.
Brighton (6th)
Narrow 1–0 home win over Everton, teenage star Michelle Agyemang with the decisive finish.
Two wins, one draw and one loss (7 points, 6th place), solid xGD (+0.1) and only 6 conceded — signs of greater balance compared to last season.
Squad Value Snapshot
Tottenham ~€2.29m vs Brighton ~€2.02m — essentially level, so little to choose on paper.
Head-to-Head
Recent form is even: the last five WSL meetings are split 1–3–1 each (aggregate 7–6 to Spurs), with three draws and margins generally tight.
Venue note: Spurs are winless in their last three home league meetings vs Brighton (D2, L1), including Brighton’s 0–1 win in March 2025.
Prediction
Model leans Brighton (39%) but margins are thin. Spurs’ home edge vs Brighton’s tighter shape points to a cagey contest.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 1–1, 1–2.
G6 — London City Lionesses vs Liverpool
Sun 5 Oct, 11:55 AM | Copperjax Community Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports+ app
Model win probabilities: LCL 44% — 24% draw — LIV 32%.
Baseline, Form & Squad
London City Lionesses (9th)
Beaten 4–1 away at Manchester City last weekend despite a spirited Nikita Parris strike; their defensive shape was breached twice inside 15 minutes.
One win in four but a heavy –9 goal difference; they’ve been punished defensively despite flashes going forward.
Liverpool (11th)
Fell 2–0 at home to Manchester United, conceding early and failing to land more than two shots on target.
Winless in three (0–0–3), with only 1 goal scored and 7 conceded so far (–6 GD). Their xG is the 2nd lowest in the league (2.8), signalling attacking struggles.
Squad Value Snapshot
Liverpool ~€2.29m vs London City Lionesses ~€1.94m — roughly 1.2× higher, suggesting a small edge in depth/quality on paper.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool edge it across the last six competitive meetings: LIV 3W – LCL 1W – 2D, including an away FA Cup win in Feb 2024. Tight, low-scoring margins have been common.
Prediction
Our model leans LCL (44%) at home, but the squad-value edge and steadier xGD profile keep Liverpool (32%) very live; draw 24%. Expect a narrow, low-scoring game.
Most likely scorelines: 1–0, 2–1, 0–0.
📝 Final Word
No clear favourites this week: Every model edge is sub-50%. It’s a round of fine margins and coin-flips.
Slim model edges (still tight):
Chelsea 45% at Man United — history + depth, but United’s defence keeps it live.
Arsenal 39% at Man City — slight away nudge; first goal huge.
Aston Villa 45% at West Ham — strongest lean on the board, yet still far from decisive.
Brighton 39% at Tottenham — cagey profile, recent venue trend favours BHA.
Everton 37% at Leicester — visitors’ slight squad edge vs Leicester’s home H2H.
London City Lionesses 44% vs Liverpool — marginal home tilt; low-scoring vibes.
Highest-variance fixtures:
Man City–Arsenal — both can score in bursts; transitions could swing it.
Spurs–Brighton — three draws in last five; one moment likely decides it.
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Missed last week? Catch the full Matchweek 4 Recap. Also check out our opening home fixtures attendance analysis here.