WSL 2025–26 Gameweek 4: Preview & Predictions
Northwest derby and London clashes spice up Week 4, as champions Chelsea face winless West Ham and title chasers navigate potential banana skins.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Arsenal open Gameweek 4 on Saturday, welcoming Aston Villa to the Emirates as they look to keep pace at the top.
Sunday brings the headline Northwest Derby, with Liverpool hosting Manchester United in a fierce rivalry shaped by very different starts.
Champions Chelsea also travel across London to face bottom-placed West Ham — first versus last on current form.
Elsewhere, Manchester City host ambitious newcomers London City Lionesses in a classic Goliath-vs-David matchup after LCL’s first ever WSL win.
Meanwhile, Brighton vs Everton shapes as a mid-table swing game, and Leicester vs Tottenham tests Spurs’ response after last week’s heavy defeat.
With Chelsea holding a slim early lead and two clubs still searching for form, this round could start to stretch the table — or spring a few surprises that tighten both the title and relegation races.
G1 — Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Sat 27 Sept, 12:00 | Emirates Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: ARS 74% — 12% draw — AVL 14%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Arsenal
Arsenal have started fast and look settled under Renée Slegers: a 4–1 opening-day win over London City Lionesses at the Emirates, a ruthless 5–1 away at West Ham, and a disciplined 0–0 at Manchester United last weekend to stay unbeaten (GF 9, GA 2).
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s start has been steadier than spectacular: a hard-fought 0–0 at Brighton on opening weekend, followed by a 1–3 defeat to Chelsea. Their GW3 fixture vs Liverpool was postponed, so match rhythm is a minor question.
Midweek note: Villa played in the Subway Women’s League Cup on Wed 24 Sept, drawing 0–0 at Tottenham before losing 7–6 on penalties — useful minutes for sharpness even if the extra load isn’t ideal before the Emirates trip.
Squad Value Snapshot
Arsenal’s squad is valued at roughly ~€9.44m versus Villa’s ~€1.65m — about six times higher — underlining a clear depth gap on paper. Still, Villa’s compact shape, set-piece threat and transition moments give them a puncher’s chance if they can keep the game tight
Head-to-Head (WSL, Last 5)
Although Arsenal have historically dominated this fixture, the last 5 WSL meetings paint a slightly different story. Arsenal still edge it 3–2 on results, with an aggregate score of 11–9. Caveat: Villa’s famous 5–2 win last spring was a reminder they can sting the big teams.
Prediction
Arsenal’s quality, form and Emirates advantage give them a clear edge. Our model has ARS at 74% to win — Villa will need a resolute low block, set-piece efficiency and clinical moments in transition to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 2–0, 3–0, 4–0
G2 — Leicester City vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 28 Sept, 12:00 | King Power Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports / WSL YouTube
Model win probabilities: LEI 22% — 27% draw — TOT 51%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Leicester
Competitive but still searching for a league spark. A narrow 0–1 defeat at Chelsea last weekend showed resilience (Leitzig busy, structure decent), and midweek brought a confidence boost: a 5–1 League Cup win away to Ipswich Town that let key attackers stretch their legs.
Tottenham
After two clean-sheet wins to open the WSL, Spurs were brought down to earth by Manchester City 5–1 on Friday night. Useful response midweek, though: a 0–0 vs Aston Villa in the League Cup, edged 7–6 on penalties to bank the bonus point and reset the mood.
Squad Value Snapshot
Spurs’ squad is valued at roughly ~€2.29m versus Leicester’s ~€1.01m — a little over twice as high — underlining a depth/quality edge on paper. Still, Leicester’s compact shape and set-piece threat keep them live if they can slow the game and drag it into moments.
Head-to-Head (WSL, recent)
Spurs edge the series 3–2–0 with an aggregate 6–3, though the 3 victories have all been very tight, by just a 1-goal margin. Last season it was 1–1 at Leicester and 1–0 at Spurs.
Prediction
Tottenham’s quality edge and broader chance creation give them the nod. Our model has TOT at 51% — Leicester will need a disciplined block, set-piece efficiency, and sharp transitions to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 1–2, 0–1, 0–2
G3 — Manchester City vs London City Lionesses
Sun 28 Sept, 12:00 | Joie Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: MCI 78% — 14% draw — LCL 8%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Manchester City
Rolled Spurs 5–1 last weekend to reassert their attacking ceiling. Backed that up in midweek with a 3–1 League Cup win over Everton—useful minutes and momentum without overextending the core.
London City Lionesses
Already off the mark with a first league win last weekend. In the League Cup on Wednesday they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2–1 away—confidence boost, but also extra load.
Squad Value Snapshot
City’s squad is valued at roughly ~€7.35m versus LCL’s ~€2.28m—over three times higher, underlining a major depth gap on paper. Still, if LCL can compress the game, lean on set pieces and counter efficiently, they’ve got a slight chance.
Head-to-Head
This is the first ever competitive meeting between Manchester City and London City so history offers no clues here.
Prediction
City’s quality and experience give them a clear edge. Our model has MCI at 78% to win — LCL will need a resolute low block, aggressive set-piece targeting and clinical counters to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 2–0, 2–1, 3-0
G4 — West Ham United vs Chelsea
Sun 28 Sept, 14:30 | Chigwell Construction Stadium | Broadcast: BBC iPlayer
Model win probabilities: WHU 7% — 14% draw — CHE 79%
Baseline, Form & Squad
West Ham
A bruising league week followed by a lift in midweek. The Hammers were beaten 4–1 at Brighton last weekend, but responded in the League Cup with a 5–1 win away at Charlton Athletic — a genuine morale boost with multiple scorers and attacking patterns clicking.
Chelsea
Edged Leicester 1–0 last weekend to stay perfect and top the table trajectory. They didn’t have a midweek League Cup tie, so arrive fresher with freedom to name a settled XI.
Squad Value Snapshot
Chelsea’s squad is valued at roughly ~€11.88m versus West Ham’s ~€1.55m — around eight times higher — underlining a major depth gap on paper. Still, if West Ham compress the game, lean on restarts, and spring quickly in transition, they’ve got a chance to disrupt the script.
Head-to-Head (WSL, recent)
One-way traffic: West Ham winless vs Chelsea in their last 5, with only one draw. Chelsea dominate the series 4–1–0, aggregate 14–3. Last season’s 2–2 draw shows West Ham can frustrate if they survive the early wave.
Prediction
Chelsea’s proven quality and big-match experience give them a clear edge. Our model has CHE at 79% to win — West Ham will need a resolute block, set-piece efficiency, and clinical moments in transition to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 0–2, 0–3, 1–2
G5 — Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton
Sun 28 Sept, 12:00 | Broadfield Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports / WSL YouTube
Model win probabilities: BHA 55% — 16% draw — EVE 29%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Brighton
A clear step forward last weekend: Brighton 4–1 West Ham — sharper final ball, strong set-piece threat, and better control in midfield zones. Midweek (League Cup): Portsmouth 0–2 Brighton — a professional away win and a genuine morale booster.
Everton
Still searching for rhythm after a tough seven days. Last weekend: Everton 0–2 Tottenham, second-half pressure but little incision. Midweek (League Cup): Manchester City 3–1 Everton — competitive phases but ultimately outgunned; this becomes a bounce-back assignment with an emphasis on defensive compactness and quicker outlets in transition.
Squad Value Snapshot
Brighton’s squad is valued at roughly ~€2.02m versus Everton’s ~€1.43m — about 1.4× higher — a modest on-paper edge. It’s typically fine margins here: set-pieces, second balls, and how well Brighton protect their box against counters.
Head-to-Head
Brighton edge it 3–0–2, aggregate 11–7. Last season Brighton did the double over Everton with a 3–2 away win and an emphatic 4–0 victory at home.
Prediction
Brighton’s improved chance creation and a confidence-building midweek win give them the slight nod at home. Our model has BHA at 55% — Everton will need a disciplined block, set-piece efficiency, and sharper counterattacking timings to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 2–1, 2–0, 1–0
G6 — Liverpool vs Manchester United
Sun 28 Sept, 12:00 | LFC Academy, St Helens | Broadcast: Sky Sports / WSL YouTube
Model win probabilities: LIV 12% — 23% draw — MUN 65%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Liverpool
An odd week to read: their GW3 league fixture vs Aston Villa was postponed, so no weekend minutes; then a thumping 5–0 in the League Cup against Sunderland on Wednesday — a genuine morale boost with attackers getting reps and confidence. The question is how that cup rhythm translates against a top-three calibre side that compresses space far better than Sunderland.
Manchester United
United played out a disciplined 0–0 vs Arsenal last weekend — compact without the ball, controlled in midfield phases, and happy to manage game state. They didn’t have a midweek League Cup tie, so arrive fresher and with scope to pick a settled XI around their core creators and runners.
Squad Value Snapshot
United’s squad is valued at roughly ~€6.27m versus Liverpool’s €2.67m — about 2.3× higher — underlining deeper options line-to-line. Liverpool mitigate with structure and set-piece threat; United’s edge is in chance volume and bench impact if it becomes a war of attrition.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool actually edge the recent series 3–0–2, aggregate 6–7 (tight overall): Recent meetings say “knife-edge,” but United’s heavier squad and current defense/attacking baseline narrow Liverpool’s chaos window.
Prediction
United’s quality and big-match experience give them a clear edge. Our model has MUN at 65% to win — Liverpool will need a resolute block, fast wide-to-central transitions, and set-piece efficiency to tilt it.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 1–2,1–1
📝 Final Word
Clear favourites: Chelsea (79%) at West Ham, Manchester City (78%) vs LCL and Arsenal (74%) vs Villa; — depth, form + firepower should see all three secure comfortable wins.
Solid leans: Man United (65%) at Liverpool — fresher legs and bench impact tilt it their way.
Narrow calls: Where one goal likely decides it:
Brighton (55%) over Everton
Tottenham (51%) at Leicester
Highest-variance fixtures: Liverpool–United (derby chaos, first goal massive)
Upset radar:
If Leicester reach HT level, late set-pieces make the draw/steal plausible.
LCL need to survive City’s first 20’ — do that, and counters + Set-pieces keep the upset alive—however slim.
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Missed last week? Catch the full Matchweek 3 Recap + analysis here.