WSL 2025–26 Gameweek 3: Preview & Predictions
Top-of-table showdown at LSV, Spurs–City under Friday lights, Villa Park test for struggling Liverpool — full Gameweek 3 analysis with win probabilities and dificulty ratings.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Week 3 sees the first heavyweight clash of the season as Manchester United host Arsenal with both riding perfect 2–0–0 starts. Something's gotta give at Leigh Sports Village on Sunday afternoon.
Friday night offers up intrigue as well – Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City under the lights in London, with Spurs looking to prove their 6-point start is no fluke against a title contender.
Elsewhere, Chelsea welcome a Leicester City side fresh off a valiant win (the champions also 2–0–0, so an upset at Kingsmeadow would truly stun).
Aston Villa host winless Liverpool at Villa Park in a matchup of two sides desperate to kickstart their campaigns.
Brighton and West Ham United face off with both seeking a first win, while Everton will aim to rebound at Goodison against newcomers London City.
With four teams on 6 points and three still on zero, this round promises to stretch the table out – or spring a few more surprises.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City
Fri 19 Sept, 7:30pm | Venue: BetWright Stadium | Broadcast: SKY SPORTS
Model win probabilities: TOT 15% – 20% draw – MCI 65%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Tottenham couldn't have asked for a better start under new boss Martin Ho – two wins from two, two clean sheets, and a spring in their step. After grinding out a 1–0 opening win via a late Beth England penalty, Spurs impressed with a professional 2–0 away victory at Everton last week. The defence has yet to be breached, and summer signing Olga Ahtinen even chipped in a goal.
This is a massive step up, however, against a Man City side packed with serious quality.
City bounced back from an opening loss at Chelsea by coming from behind to beat Brighton 2–1 – Khadija Shaw's relentless second-half display (5 shots, 1 goal) and Yui Hasegawa's winner reminded everyone of City's firepower.
City's squad boasts roughly three times the market value of Spurs (≈€7.4m vs €2.3m), underlining the depth gap on paper. Still, Tottenham's confidence is real and bolstered by new additions and a renewed mentality.
Head-to-Head (WSL, last 10)
City have historically dominated this matchup. They have won 9 of the last 10 WSL meetings, with Tottenham’s only win – a 2–1 away victory in Sept 2021.
City won both league encounters last season (including a hard-fought 2–1 at this ground in March).
Overall, history leans heavily to City, but Spurs will recall that win in 2021 as proof that anything can happen on the night.
Prediction
City’s proven quality and big-match experience give them a clear edge. Our model has MCI at 65% to win — Tottenham will need another resolute defensive display and clinical moments in transition to tilt it.
Everton vs London City Lionesses
Fri 19 Sept, 7:30pm | Goodison Park | Broadcast: SKY SPORTS | YOUTUBE
Model win probabilities: EVE 36% – 25% draw – LCL 39%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Everton come in with a 1–0–1 record that only partially tells the story. In Matchweek 1 they stunned Liverpool 4–1 at Anfield, powered by a perfect hat-trick from new signing Ornella Vignola. But the Toffees were brought back down to earth in a 0–2 home loss to Spurs where they failed to register a single shot on target.
Which Everton will we see here? Brian Sørensen will demand a response, and he does have attacking talent to do that.
Newly promoted London City Lionesses have endured a baptism of fire against two of the league's best (Arsenal and Man United), shipping 9 goals in two defeats. That said, there have been flashes of promise: they scored first at the Emirates in Week 1 and actually created more big chances than United last week despite the 1–5 scoreline.
LCL's ambitious summer recruitment (including France star Grace Geyoro) gives them a squad value (
€2.2m) slightly higher than Everton's (€1.5m) – on paper they have talent, but cohesion and WSL experience are lacking.Head-to-Head
This is the first ever WSL meeting between Everton and London City. The Lionesses are in their debut top-flight season, so history offers no clues here.
It's a big occasion for LCL, playing at Goodison Park under the lights – a far cry from their Championship away days.
Intangibles
Desperation factor: London City will view this as their first realistic shot at points after two brutal fixtures; expect urgency from the visitors to prove they belong at this level.
Everton's bounce-back: The Toffees were humbled last match – how they start this game will be telling.
Prediction
Our model leans LCL (39%) — slight edge to the visitors on underlying quality indicators — but margins are fine. Everton’s experience and home setting keep this live; if they impose themselves early, a narrow home result is still in play.
Chelsea vs Leicester City
Sun 21 Sept, 12:00pm | Kingsmeadow | Broadcast: SKY SPORTS
Model win probabilities: CHE 82% – 10% draw – LEI 8%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Reigning champions Chelsea have kicked off in efficient if not spectacular fashion. Sonia Bompastor’s side is 2–0–0, having edged Man City 2–1 at home and then dispatched Aston Villa 3–1 away. Last week saw the long-awaited return of Sam Kerr – and she promptly scored her 100th club goal for Chelsea in second-half stoppage time.
The Blues haven't fully hit top gear yet, but with talents like Kerr, Aggie Beever-Jones (goals in both games), Maika Hamano in their ranks, their "B+ game" is still often enough.
Leicester City, meanwhile, got their first win last week: a gritty 1–0 home win over Liverpool despite going down to 10 players on 56′. New boss Rick Passmoor earned his first WSL points in dramatic fashion, as Leicester scored with their only shot on target and then defended for their lives (24 tackles, 26 clearances).
On paper, this is a massive mismatch: Chelsea boast the league's most valuable squad (~€11.6m), while Leicester's is among the smallest (~€1m). Depth and superstar quality heavily favour the home side.
Head-to-Head (WSL, last 8)
Since Leicester’s promotion in 2021, the Foxes have earned just one WSL point against Chelsea—a 1-1 draw at King Power on 14 December 2024—and they have endured four defeats of six goals or more (9-0, 8-0, 7-0, 6-0).
In those eight games, Chelsea kept clean sheets in five and outscored the Foxes 38-4.
Prediction
It would take a monumental upset for Leicester to take anything here. Chelsea are ruthless at avoiding slip-ups in this fixture profile. Model lean: Chelsea (82%) — comfortable home win unless complacency creeps in early.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Sun 21 Sept, 12:00pm | Villa Park | Broadcast: SKY SPORTS
Model win probabilities: AVL 41% – 27% draw – LIV 32%
Baseline, Form & Squad
After six straight wins to end last season, Aston Villa have hit a bit of a wall to start 2025–26 – a 0–0 draw at Brighton followed by a 1–3 loss to Chelsea. They remain winless (0–1–1).
Villa's unbeaten run did extend to 6 with that opening draw, and they gave Chelsea a stern test last week: Ebony Salmon scored a first-half equaliser and was a constant threat (6 shots, 8 box touches). Under coach Natalia Arroyo, Villa are organised and hard-working; they'll view this fixture as a prime opportunity to get that first win on the board.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are in a bit of disarray. The Reds have started 0–0–2, shipping 5 goals and scoring just once. In Week 1, they blew an early lead in a 1–4 home derby loss to Everton. Week 2 was even more painful: a 0–1 defeat at Leicester against 10 players, where Liverpool dominated possession (74%) and registered 9 shots to Leicester's 3 but still couldn't score.
New manager Gareth Taylor is still searching for his first point – and for some confidence in the final third. It's worth noting Liverpool's attack struggled last season too (22 goals in 22 games) and they lost their two top scorers in the summer, so the current drought isn't entirely shocking.
In terms of squad, Liverpool's total market value (~€2.7m) does edge Villa's (~€1.6m), but that hasn't translated on the pitch.
Head-to-Head (WSL, last 6)
Liverpool leads the series: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (agg 12–8).
Last season brought away wins both ways — Liverpool 2–1 at Villa Park (Nov ’24) and Villa 2–1 at St Helens (Mar ’25).
In 2023–24 season, Liverpool did the league double (2–0 H, 4–1 A). Overall, history leans slightly Liverpool, but Villa’s recent Anfield win shows it’s no foregone conclusion.
Prediction
Form and tactical cohesion tilt this towards Villa, but margins are slim. Model lean: Aston Villa (41%) — narrow home win if they set the tempo.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs West Ham United
Sun 21 Sept, 12:00pm | Broadfield Stadium | Broadcast: SKY SPORTS | YOUTUBE
Model win probabilities: BHA 41% – 27% draw – WHU 32%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Brighton and West Ham both find themselves winless and looking to kickstart their campaigns. Brighton (0–1–1) opened with a gritty 0–0 home draw vs Villa and then gave Manchester City a scare in a 1–2 defeat. The Seagulls led at City through Fran Kirby's 14th-minute strike, before eventually succumbing to City's pressure.
West Ham (0–0–2) have had a rough start. A 0–1 loss at Spurs in Week 1 (conceding a late penalty) was followed by a 1–5 demolition at home to Arsenal. In that Arsenal game, West Ham actually led 1–0 early via an own goal but were then overwhelmed, managing 0 shots on target in 90 minutes.
The Hammers need attackers like Viviane Asseyi and Shekiera Martinez to find form; so far, clear chances have been few and far between.
Squad value comparison gives Brighton a slight edge (~€2.0m vs West Ham's ~€1.5m), which aligns with Brighton's slightly higher ambitions in recent seasons.
Head-to-Head (WSL, last 10)
Brighton hold the edge: 7 wins to West Ham’s 2 (1 draw). They split last season’s league meetings — Brighton 3–2 at home and West Ham 3–1 in the return.
Brighton’s home has generally been kind to them (4 wins in the last 5 here), and most games are close — half of the last ten were settled by a single goal.
Prediction
“Toss-up” energy with a slight lean to the hosts. Model lean: Brighton (41%) — if the Seagulls convert pressure into chances, a narrow home win is there; West Ham’s attacking threats still make this finely poised.
Manchester United vs Arsenal
Sun 21 Sept, 2:50pm | Leigh Sports Village | Broadcast): BBC One / iPlayer
Model win probabilities: MUN 27% – 26% draw – ARS 47%
Baseline, Form & Squad
Both United and Arsenal have 6 points from 6 and have been lighting up the league. Manchester United have been red-hot: a 4–0 opening win over Leicester followed by a 5–1 thumping of London City.
Arsenal have matched them blow for blow – the Gunners also boast 9 goals for, via a 4–1 over London City and a 5–1 over West Ham. They actually fell behind in both matches (slow starts), but the firepower is evident.
On paper, Arsenal's squad value (~€9.5m) is higher than United's (~€6.3m), reflecting the star-studded Arsenal roster – but United's balance and defensive solidity are top-notch.
This is also a meeting of last season's 2nd-place (Arsenal) vs 3rd-place (United) teams, both aiming to dethrone Chelsea.
Head-to-Head (WSL, last 10)
There's very little to choose between these sides historically. In the last 10 WSL meetings, Arsenal have 4 wins, United have 3, and there have been 3 draws.
If recent matches are any indication, we're in for a drama: their final-day clash last season was a 4–3 thriller won by Arsenal to pip United to second place, and the reverse fixture earlier in 2024 was a tight 1–1 draw.
Prediction
High-level, high-variance clash: United will try to impose physically and keep the tempo high; Arsenal will seek midfield control and overloads between the lines. Model lean: Arsenal (47%) — slight but clear edge to the visitors, with set-pieces and transitions likely to decide it.
📝 Final Word
Clear favourite: Chelsea (82%) over Leicester — depth + firepower should see them home comfortably.
Solid leans: Manchester City (65%) at Spurs, though Tottenham's early defensive steel keeps the draw (20%) alive if City don't score first.
Narrow calls: Three genuine close call where one goal could decides it:
Arsenal (47%) at United
Brighton (41%) over West Ham
Aston Villa (41%) over Liverpool
Surprise pick: Model slightly prefers London City (39%) over Everton (36%) — cohesion vs experience the swing factor.
Highest-variance fixtures: United–Arsenal and Brighton–West Ham — both can flip on the first goal, set-pieces, or a red card.
Upset radar: If Spurs extend their clean-sheet habit into HT, a late draw or narrow steal isn't off the table.
Which way do you see the games going? Drop your predictions 👇
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Missed last week? Our full Matchweek 2 Review + analysis is live here.
Thanks for this clear analysis, I love reading these pieces!
Curious why you chose to leave out the most likely score lines, I thought those were super interesting to get a sense of the models predictions for eg whose defense / offense was likely to do wel (helpful for fantasy picks!)