WSL 2025–26 Gameweek 16 Recap – Manchester City Hit Leicester for Six as Tottenham Produce Ten-Goal Villa Park Thriller
Man City demolish Leicester 6–0; Spurs thrash Villa 7–3; Man United come from behind to beat London City 2–1; Chelsea see off Liverpool 2–0; Everton make it three wins in a row with 1–0 over West Ham.
Overview
Matchweek 16 produced 22 goals across five fixtures (4.4 per game) after Brighton versus Arsenal was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch. The weekend delivered a title statement at the top, a ten-goal thriller in the middle, and more pain at the bottom.
The headline was at the Joie Stadium, where Manchester City responded to last week’s Arsenal defeat with a ruthless 6–0 demolition of bottom club Leicester. Four goals in 16 first-half minutes killed the contest before the break, with Lauren Hemp creating 11 chances in the game – most by any player in a single WSL match this season.
Manchester United ground out a gutsy 2–1 comeback against London City Lionesses to stay second – former Red Nikita Parris gave the visitors a surprise early lead before a Jess Park stunner and Millie Turner’s late header sealed a seventh straight win in all competitions. Chelsea kept pace in third with a composed 2–0 victory over Liverpool at Kingsmeadow, Lauren James starring with an assist and a brilliant goal.
The weekend’s wildest spectacle came at Villa Park, where Tottenham hammered Aston Villa 7–3 in a breathless affair. Every time Villa clawed back to within a goal, Spurs immediately restored the gap – Cathinka Tandberg striking twice off the bench as Martin Ho’s side climbed level on points with Arsenal. For Villa, a fourth defeat in five deepens the pressure.
At the bottom, Everton’s revival continued with a 1–0 win over West Ham at Goodison Park – Honoka Hayashi’s early strike sealing a third consecutive victory and lifting them to 17 points, while the Hammers remain just two points above the relegation playoff spot.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
Manchester City 6–0 Leicester City
Venue: Joie Stadium (Manchester) | Attendance: 2,276
City went ahead on 22’ when Khadija Shaw headed home from a Lauren Hemp cross and the floodgates opened with four goals in 16 minutes as Vivianne Miedema struck twice (28’, 36’) and Yui Hasegawa added a fourth (38’) to give the hosts a commanding 4-0 lead at the break. Leicester were hoping the floodgates had shut, but Kerolin smashed a stunning effort into the top corner from distance just three minutes after the restart (48’) before substitute Aoba Fujino rounded goalkeeper Clark and fired home (66’) to complete a ruthless display from the league leaders.
Key Stats
Manchester City were utterly dominant across the board. They nearly doubled all their usual attacking outputs. 15 shots on target – highest of any team in a single WSL game this season, 26 chances created, also most of any WSL game this season.
Leicester City might have suffered a heavy loss but one positive is that they actually created more than their usual quality in isolated moments – 3 big chances vs a 0.87 season average (≈3.4×) and 1.50 xG vs their 0.68 average – but couldn’t convert any of them. They were unlucky to hit the frame twice.
Implications
Manchester City stay 1st on 42 points (16 played) – maintaining an 8-point lead over Manchester United (34 pts). Chelsea (33 pts) and Arsenal (29 pts with two games in hand) remain in the chasing pack, but City need just 12 points from six remaining matches to clinch the title.
Leicester City remain 12th on 9 points (15 played) – rooted to the bottom of the table, one point behind Liverpool and two behind West Ham United. A fourth consecutive defeat deepens the crisis, with a crucial relegation six-pointer against Liverpool on 15 March still to come.
Retrospection
Our preview made Manchester City overwhelming favourites (90% win) with "3-0" the most likely scoreline. The outcome was never in doubt, but City blew past even the most optimistic projections – a 6-0 demolition that made our predicted 3-0 look conservative.
Aston Villa 3–7 Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: Villa Park (Birmingham) | Attendance: 2,563
Tottenham ran riot at Villa Park with a stunning seven-goal display to move level on points with Arsenal. Signe Gaupset opened the scoring in the 10th minute before Kirsty Hanson equalised for Villa shortly after. Bethany England and Olivia Holdt then struck to give Spurs a commanding 3–1 half-time lead. The goals kept flowing in a breathless second half, with substitute Cathinka Tandberg netting twice and Maika Hamano and Julie Blakstad both scoring their first Spurs goals to seal a remarkable victory. Hanson and Oriane Jean-François replied for Villa, but it was a chastening afternoon for Natalia Arroyo's side, who have now lost four of their last five.
Key Stats
Tottenham were devastating in attack, producing numbers far beyond anything in their season profile. 27 shots(≈2.2× their 12.3 average), 12 shots on target (≈2.9× their 4.2 average), and 21 chances created (≈2.5× their 8.4 average). And they converted at a remarkable rate – 7 goals from 2.80 xG – making the most of virtually every opportunity that came their way.
Aston Villa were below their season baseline in almost every attacking metric – 10 shots vs a 12.1 average, 6 chances created vs 7.9, and just 0.82 xG vs their 1.24 average (≈0.66×). However, they did create 4 big chances – double their 2.00 season average – and were remarkably clinical in converting them, scoring 3 goals from 0.82 xG. The issue was entirely at the other end: they simply could not stem the tide of Spurs attacks.
Implications
Tottenham remain in 5th on 29 points (16 played) – drawing level with Arsenal, though the Gunners have two games in hand.
Aston Villa drop to 9th on 16 points (16 played) – that’s now four consecutive WSL defeats conceding 16 goals across those four losses. The gap to bottom club is still seven points, but with City visiting Villa Park after the break, the slide needs to stop before it becomes a genuine survival concern.
Retrospection
Our preview had this as the most balanced fixture of the weekend (48% home – 26% draw – 26% away) with “1-1” the most likely scoreline. What followed was anything but balanced – a stunning 10-goal thriller as Tottenham hammered Villa 7-3 at Villa Park.
Chelsea 2–0 Liverpool
Venue: Kingsmeadow | Attendance: TBC
Chelsea produced another professional performance this week to see off Liverpool 2–0 and strengthen their hold on third place. Lauren James' cross found Sjoeke Nüsken, who finished from close range to open the scoring on 40 minutes. Lauren James then doubled the lead in the 65th minute with a curling effort into the bottom left corner to seal a comfortable victory in the Blues' pursuit of a Champions League spot.
Key Stats
Chelsea won comfortably without reaching their usual levels. They were below season average in almost every attacking metric – 13 shots vs a 17.6 average, 1.50 xG vs 2.10, and just 1 big chance vs a season average of 3.06 (≈3× below). The difference-maker was individual brilliance of Lauren James.
Liverpool were actually more creative than usual – 8 chances created vs their 5.6 season average (≈1.4×) – but the quality wasn’t there. They generated just 0.55 xG from those chances, well below their already low 0.89 average, and managed only 2 shots on target from 8 attempts.
Implications
Chelsea remain 3rd on 33 points (16 played) – 1 point behind Manchester United (34 pts) and 9 behind leaders Manchester City (42 pts). The title is gone, but the top-three race and UWCL qualification is very much on. The danger lurks behind them: Arsenal (29 pts, 14 played) have two games in hand and sit just 4 points back – win both and they’d leapfrog Chelsea into 3rd. No room for complacency heading into the month-long break before fixtures resume on 15 March.
Liverpool remain 11th on 10 points (16 played) – just one point above Leicester City in the relegation play-off spot and one point below West Ham United (11 pts).
Retrospection
Our preview made Chelsea clear favourites (77% win) with “2-0” the most likely scoreline – and it landed. A clean, professional Chelsea performance that matched our model’s top prediction exactly.
Everton 1–0 West Ham
Venue: Goodison Park | Attendance: TBC
Everton made it three WSL wins in a row as they ground out a 1–0 victory over West Ham to climb to eighth in the table. Hannah Blundell squared a pass to Honoka Hayashi, who tapped the ball into the net in the eighth minute to give the Toffees an early lead they never relinquished. West Ham pushed for an equaliser through Viviane Asseyi and Riko Ueki but couldn’t find a way past a resolute Everton defence, with the result marking interim boss Scott Phelan’s second successive WSL win since taking charge.
Key Stats
Everton’s attacking output was comfortably above their usual level. They posted 1.68 xG against a season average of 0.90 (≈1.9×) and created 2 big chances vs a 1.38 average – and crucially, nearly all of it came from open play, with set pieces accounting for just 6% of their xG.
West Ham had plenty of the ball (56% possession) and matched their season average for touches in the opposition box (19), but turned it into almost nothing. Their 0.30 xG was barely a quarter of their 1.10 season average (≈3.7× below), and they failed to create a single big chance – 0 vs a 1.06 average. Lots of territory, zero cutting edge.
Implications
Everton climb to 8th on 17 points (16 played) – a third successive win that pulls them into the comfort of mid-table and level on points with Brighton. Just three weeks ago they were 11th.
West Ham remain 10th on 11 points (16 played) – just one point above Liverpool and two above bottom club Leicester City, keeping them very much in the relegation playoff conversation.
Retrospection
Our preview had Everton as narrow favourites (43% win) with “1-0” the most likely scoreline. The model got the outcome and scoreline right – Honoka Hayashi’s eighth-minute strike was enough to secure a 1-0 Everton win.
Manchester United 2–1 London City Lionesses
Venue: Progress With Unity Stadium | Attendance: TBC
Manchester United came from behind to beat London City Lionesses 2–1 and extend their winning WSL run to four games. Former Red Nikita Parris headed the visitors in front inside five minutes, but Jess Park levelled with a brilliant strike on the half-hour. The game looked destined for a draw until Millie Turner powered home a Maya Le Tissier free-kick in the 79th minute, securing Marc Skinner’s side all three points and keeping them second in the table.
Key Stats
Manchester United were well below their season averages across the board – a far cry from the usual attacking output we’ve come to expect. Just 5 shots vs a season average of 14.9, 5 chances created vs 11.3, and a paltry 0.28 xG vs their 1.75 average – roughly a sixth of their usual attacking threat. 86% of their total xG came from set pieces (0.24 of 0.28), meaning United created almost nothing from open play. This was a grind-it-out win.
London City Lionesses will feel hard done by. They were competitive in nearly every metric and bettered their season baselines where it mattered – 3 big chances vs a 2.13 average (≈1.4×), 22 touches in the opposition box vs 21.3, and 10 shots roughly in line with their 10.4 norm. Their 1.02 xG significantly outstripped United’s 0.28 – on another day they take something from this game.
Implications
Manchester United stay 2nd on 34 points (16 played) – one point ahead of Chelsea and five clear of Arsenal, though the Gunners now have two games in hand after Brighton vs Arsenal was postponed. The gap to runaway leaders Man City stands at eight points with six matches remaining.
London City Lionesses remain 6th on 19 points (16 played) – two points above Brighton.
Retrospection
Our preview made Manchester United strong favourites (69% win) with “2-0” the most likely scoreline. None of our three most likely scorelines (2-0, 1-0, 1-1) landed, though the model was right where it mattered: backing a United home win.
Expected Points – MW16: Chelsea reclaim 2nd, Man City pull clear
Manchester City continued to strengthen their grip at the top, posting a weekend-high +2.66 xPts gain to move to 36.26 – now nearly six points clear in the xPts table. Chelsea’s +2.08 jump (30.66) saw them swap back to 2nd, overtaking Arsenal who remained static on 29.30 due to their match being postponed. Tottenham Hotspur were another big mover, surging +2.49 to leapfrog Brighton into 5th (22.24). Further down the table, Everton posted a notable +2.38 underlying gain – the third-largest of the weekend – though they remain 11th.
