WSL 2025–26 Gameweek 14 Recap – Kerolin Hat-Trick Powers City's 5–1 Demolition of Chelsea in Title Race Statement
City destroy Chelsea 5–1 at the Etihad; Naalsund brace sees United past Liverpool; Spurs come from behind at West Ham; London City steal it at Brighton; Fernandez late winner for Everton.
Overview
Matchweek 14 produced 19 goals and no clean sheets. Late drama, ruthless finishing, and unexpected turnarounds defined a weekend where the title race looks almost certainly over.
The headline came from the Etihad: Manchester City demolished Chelsea 5–1 in what was supposed to be the weekend’s marquee fixture. Kerolin grabbed a hat-trick, and City generated nine big chances – their most emphatic statement of the season.
Manchester United continued their momentum with a 3–1 victory over Liverpool in the North-West derby. Lisa Naalsund scored twice in eight second-half minutes.
Tottenham mounted a comeback at West Ham, turning a 1–0 deficit into a 2–1 win despite finishing with ten after Drew Spence’s late red card. Spurs had 28 shots – their highest of the season – but missed every big chance before eventually finding a way through.
Elsewhere, London City pulled off the weekend’s biggest smash-and-grab at Brighton, winning 2–1 with just 0.21 xG. And Everton snatched all three points against Aston Villa through Martina Fernandez’s 89th-minute header – both goals assisted by Ruby Mace from set pieces.
It was a weekend where the numbers told only half the story – except at the Etihad, where they told the whole thing.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
West Ham United 1–2 Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: Chigwell Construction Stadium (Dagenham, Essex) | Attendance: 1,525
West Ham landed the first punch when Shekiera Martinez opened the scoring on 10′ (assist Leila Wandeler), but the rest of the afternoon belonged to Spurs’ pressure. Matilda Vinberg equalised on 54′ (assist Toko Koga) before Olivia Holdt struck on 73′ to complete the turnaround. Spurs even finished with ten after Drew Spence was dismissed on 90+5′, but by then they’d done the hard work.
Key Stats:
Tottenham’s 28 shots was their highest so far this season and was more than 2.5× their season average (11.0). Their 10 corners more than doubled their typical output (4.6).
The same numbers also explain why this didn’t become a rout: Spurs posted 2.70 xG but only 0.78 xGOT (poor shot placement and low-quality on-target attempts), and they missed all three big chances they created.
Implications:
Tottenham’s comeback moved them level on points with Arsenal in the European chase, while West Ham’s inability to convert a rare lead into points left them rooted in the bottom two.
Retrospection:
Our preview framing treated this as near-balanced but leaned West Ham (39.4%) with “2–1” as the most likely scoreline – the weekend’s first example of how thin edges can flip when the shot volume is this one-sided.
Manchester United 3–1 Liverpool
Venue: Progress with Unity Stadium (Leigh) | Attendance: 4,502
United waited until the second half to turn control into goals, with Lisa Naalsund firing them ahead on 52′ (assist Jessica Park). Liverpool hit back through Alice Bergström on 59′ (assist Cornelia Kapocs), but Naalsund responded almost immediately on 60′ (assist Julia Zigiotti Olme). The contest remained edgy until Fridolina Rolfö sealed it late on 87′ (assist Hanna Lundkvist)
Key stats:
Liverpool’s underlying attack spike was impressive – 1.56 xG is nearly double their season average (0.86) – but it was overwhelmingly dead-ball driven (1.32 set-piece xG; 84.6% of their total).
United, by contrast, created almost all of their xG in open play and paired it with elite shot execution: 1.82 xG translated into 2.96 xGOT and three goals.
Implications:
United’s win pushed them into second and sustained their run of momentum; Liverpool’s loss reinforced the season-long problem that the preview put front and centre – they simply do not generate enough threat to survive error-free for 90 minutes.
Retrospection:
This was our most straightforward call for the weekend (68.3% United), and the result mostly agreed – although the 3–1 scoreline arrived via a set-piece equaliser and a decisive “response-to-the-response” sequence.
Brighton 1–2 London City Lionesses
Venue: Broadfield Stadium (Crawley) | Attendance: 1,919
Brighton started brightly, and Kiko Seike put them ahead on 23′ (assist Madison Haley). But London City stayed alive through a chaotic first half: Moeka Minami turned the ball into her own net on 36′ (OG), before Freya Godfrey struck on 45+1′ (assist Kosovare Asllani) to complete a smash-and-grab turnaround.
Key stats:
London City’s 0.21 xG would normally be a “lose most weeks” profile – it was more than a full goal below their season average (1.27), and it came with just four shots.
Brighton generated above-average volume and only slightly above-average xG, but their xGOT was just 0.41. In blunt terms, they created but did not test the goalkeeper with enough quality.
Implications:
London City reinforced their mid-table foothold, while Brighton’s stop-start season continued – the kind of defeat that doesn’t change how you play next week, but does change what you need from it.
Retrospection:
The model marginally favoured Brighton (44.7%) and listed “2–1” among the most likely scorelines — it got the one-goal margin right, but the direction wrong, largely because the finishing distribution broke hard against the home side.
Everton 2–1 Aston Villa
Venue: Goodison Park (Liverpool) | Attendance: TBC
Villa struck first as Ebony Salmon finished on 13′, but Everton’s response was all about delivery and timing. Martina Fernandez levelled on 32′ (assist Ruby Mace) and then, with the game drifting towards a draw, Fernandez rose again on 89′ (assist Mace) to snatch the points.
Key stats:
Everton’s attacking output jumped from “season-long survival mode” to “actual threat”: 15 shots versus an 8.3 season average, and 1.33 xG versus 0.83.
Most importantly, the quality was concentrated in set-piece situations (0.66 set-piece xG; ~50% share), which aligns perfectly with the match’s two headed goals. So ultimately, set-piece was the difference maker.
Implications:
Everton’s win created breathing room above the bottom two, while Villa’s defeat left them stuck in the lower mid-table and still looking for consistency week-to-week.
Retrospection:
The model leaned Villa (38.1%) with “1–2” as the most likely scoreline – in other words, the same game was seen, but the set-piece finishing swung it the other way.
Manchester City 5–1 Chelsea
Venue: Etihad Stadium (Manchester) | Attendance: TBC
City were relentless from the start. Kerolin opened the scoring on 13′, Khadija Shaw doubled it on 36′ (assist Vivianne Miedema), and then Kerolin took over completely – striking again on 49′ before completing her hat-trick on 54′ (assist Lauren Hemp). Chelsea pulled one back through Alyssa Thompson on 68′, but Miedema restored the four-goal cushion on 72′ (assist Kerstin Casparij) to cap a statement win.
Key stats:
City produced 4.14 xG – well above their already-elite season average (2.84) – and generated nine big chances.
Chelsea’s attacking profile collapsed relative to baseline: 1.34 xG (down from a 2.16 average) and just one big chance.
The upshot was a match where possession tilted Chelsea’s way but shot quality and shot frequency tilted overwhelmingly City’s way, a pattern consistent with City this season.
Implications:
City’s 13th league win in a row moved them 12 points clear of Chelsea and 11 ahead of United, while Chelsea dropped to third. Although our mid-season review already projected a League win, this is most it done.
Retrospection:
City were favourites (55.5%), but the predicted scorelines (mostly one-goal margins) totally underestimated the scale. The model expected a tight title clash; City delivered a separation performance beating the current champions comprehensively.
Expected Points – MW14: City pull away, Chelsea edge up
Manchester City posted the biggest xPts gain of the weekend (+2.62), turning their 5–1 demolition of Chelsea into a dominant underlying performance. Brighton (+2.40) and Tottenham (+2.29) also made significant jumps – Brighton despite losing, Spurs through sheer volume (28 shots). Chelsea moved up to second on xPts, but only because Arsenal didn’t play – their +0.30 gain from a 5–1 defeat tells the real story. At the bottom, Everton’s win lifted them above Leicester, who also didn’t play because of Arsenal Champions cup commitment.
Final Word
Gameweek 14 had a clear statistical through-line: territory and volume were often decisive, but not always rewarded in the way you’d expect. Tottenham and London City both won games where the underlying numbers point in a different direction.
At the other end of the spectrum, Manchester City’s demolition of Chelsea was the purest “numbers match the narrative” performance of the weekend: overwhelming xG, overwhelming shot quality, and a match that felt over, long before the final whistle.
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