WSL 2025–26 Gameweek Recap – Chelsea Run Riot as Arsenal’s Finishing Lets Them Down
Arsenal 0–0 Manchester United; Manchester City 2–0 Everton; Aston Villa 2–1 Brighton; Chelsea 5–0 West Ham United; Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 Leicester City; Liverpool 0–0 London City Lionesses
Overview
This weekend six fixtures delivered 11 total goals, with two draws and seven clean sheets. It was a gameweek where one match screamed “process” and another screamed “scoreboard” – and both were right.
The biggest “data vs football” moment came at the Emirates: Arsenal 0–0 Manchester United despite completely dominating the game based on chances. Arsenal created 2.8 xG to United’s 0.43, put up 25 shots to 4, played against ten for most of the match as United received a red card. Still fell short.
At the other end of the spectrum, Chelsea’s 5–0 demolition of West Ham looked exactly like the numbers suggested it should – 4.11 xG, 26 shots, 65% possession, total control.
If you wanted a second reminder that the scoreboard doesn’t always follow the xG script, it arrived at Villa Park. Aston Villa beat Brighton 2–1 even though Brighton led the expected goals battle 1.44 to 0.54 and had more than double the box touches (34–15).
There were plenty of narratives this weekend – just not much agreement on what it all meant.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
Arsenal 0–0 Manchester United
Venue: Emirates Stadium (London) | Attendance: 37,627
This was a siege without a breakthrough. Arsenal posted wave after wave of pressure — 25 shots, 6 on target, 63 box touches, and 8 corners — but couldn’t find the finish. United offered little going forward (0.43 xG, 4 shots) and had to lean heavily on defending (including 6 saves, 13 blocks, 67 clearances) while also navigating a match that included a red card.
Key stats
Territorial dominance – Arsenal controlled the game with 64% possession, a 25–4 shot edge, and 63–9 box touches. For context, 25 shots is Arsenal’s highest single-match shots total this season, and 63 box touches is just four shy of their season high (66). That’s the scale of the dominance.
Chance quality (and set plays) – Arsenal generated 2.8 xG, including 1.1 set-play xG, and created 3 big chances – missing all three. The set-piece frustration continues: this was their second-highest set-play xG of the season, yet they still failed to convert.
Goalkeeping + last-ditch defending – Manchester United’s defensive workload was immense: 6 saves, 13 blocks, and 67 clearances. That combination is the clearest reason this ended 0–0. For context, those were all season highs for United – their highest single-match defensive involvement all season.
Retrospection
The model favoured Arsenal (58%) with 2–0, 1–0 and 1–1 the most likely scorelines. The draw sat within that range – but everything else about the performance suggested Arsenal should have won. By xG, by shot volume, by territorial control, this was the type of match they usually do.
Manchester City 2–0 Everton
Venue: Joie Stadium (Manchester) | Attendance: TBC
City’s scoreboard lead was ‘only’ two, but it was a dominant performance. Kerolin opened the scoring on 26 minutes (assist Kerstin Casparij), and Vivianne Miedema added a second on 63 minutes (assist Khadija Shaw). Everton barely escaped their own third — and needed save after save plus a wall of blocks to keep it at 2–0.
Key stats
Relentless shot volume – City attempted 32 shots to Everton’s 2, with 13 on target to 1. City were completely dominant. For context, 32 shots is the highest City have recorded in a single match this season.
Chance creation – City produced 3.76 xG and 8 big chances (Everton: 0.35 xG, 1 big chance). Despite the win, by City’s standards they were wasteful – they missed 7 big chances, their highest “big chances missed” total of the season so far.
Everton in survival mode – Everton’s back line and keeper were under constant pressure: 11 saves, 10 blocks, and 36 clearances, reflecting how often City entered dangerous areas (52 box touches). The scoreline stayed respectable because of that sheer defensive work – Courtney Brosnan’s 11 saves kept City out, the highest by any goalkeeper in a single match this season. She made sure Shaw didn't score.
Retrospection
City were massive favourites (91%), with the model expecting heavy wins like 3–0, 4–0, or 2–0. They did win as predicted, but the actual scoreline was surprisingly close given how dominant the model thought they’d be.
Aston Villa 2–1 Brighton
Venue: Villa Park (Birmingham) | Attendance: 2,361
Brighton struck first through Fuka Tsunoda on 11′, but Villa flipped the match in a breathless spell after the hour: Rachel Daly equalised on 57′ from Lucia Kendall’s assist, then Kirsty Hanson scored the winner just a minute later from Miriael Taylor. Based on the chances created, it’s a match Brighton will feel they “should” have won – but Villa were clinical in the moments that mattered.
Key stats
Data vs football: Brighton led the xG battle 1.44–0.54 and logged 34 box touches to Villa’s 15 – but lost the scoreboard battle 2–1.
Fine margins: Villa hit the woodwork twice, and despite creating only 1 big chance, they converted at the key moment. If those shots were inches lower, Villa’s numbers would flip entirely. So while the stats suggest Villa got lucky, they were just margins away from a dominant performance.
Shot quality over volume: The shot counts were fairly even (10–8 Brighton), but Villa extracted maximum value from minimal high-quality looks.
Retrospection
The model slightly favoured Villa (46%), with the most likely scorelines being 1–1, 2–1, or 1–0. So the 2–1 result wasn’t a shock – what’s interesting is how one-sided the underlying numbers were, with Brighton clearly ahead on xG.
Chelsea 5–0 West Ham United
Venue: Kingsmeadow (Kingston upon Thames, Surrey) | Attendance: TBC
Chelsea got a dream start when Yu Endo's own goal gifted them the lead inside a minute. From there, they never let go – Lauren James made it two, then Alyssa Thompson and Sandy Baltimore (twice) piled on before half-time. Baltimore grabbed her second after the break to complete the demolition.
Key stats
Relentless dominance – Chelsea produced 4.11 xG from 26 shots (10 on target). They controlled 65% possession and spent long stretches camped in West Ham’s half, piling up 50 box touches and winning 10 corners. For context, 4.11 xGis Chelsea’s highest figure of the season so far – and they also created a season-high 9 big chances.
West Ham couldn’t escape – Under constant pressure, West Ham managed just 0.25 xG and one shot on target. Once Chelsea turned an early gift into a multi-goal lead, there was no realistic route back into the game.
Retrospection
Chelsea were heavy favourites (82%), with 3–0, 2–0, and 4–0 the likeliest scorelines. The 5–0 thrashing was even more one-sided than predicted – the model had the clean sheet and the comfortable win right, but underestimated just how ruthless Chelsea would be.
Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 Leicester City
Venue: BetWright Stadium (London) | Attendance: TBC
The only goal came from an unfortunate source: Ashley Neville, who just joined Leicester from Tottenham, put through her own net on 40′ to hand her former side the win. Tottenham controlled possession and territory, but Leicester had their moments – they matched Spurs for shots on target.
Key stats
Spurs dominated territory – Tottenham controlled 73% possession and spent long spells around Leicester’s box, recording 34 box touches to Leicester’s 10. But a large share of that dominance came via set plays: Spurs generated 0.99 set-play xG out of 1.72 xG total, suggesting they found it harder to break Leicester down in open play and leaned heavily on dead-ball situations.
Spurs’ wastefulness kept it close – Despite creating 5 big chances (their highest in a single match this season), Spurs missed all five. That’s why this stayed a nervy 1–0, rather than turning into the comfortable win their territorial control implied.
Retrospection
The model gave Spurs a slight edge (46%), with 0–0, 1–0, and 1–1 the likeliest scorelines. The result matched perfectly – a tight game where one goal made all the difference.
Liverpool 0–0 London City Lionesses
Venue: St Helens Stadium (St Helens, Merseyside) | Attendance: 2,419
A low-event stalemate. Liverpool had more shots (7–2) and slightly higher xG (0.41–0.17), but neither side managed a shot on target. It never really got going – no sustained pressure, no real danger, just a flat game that was always heading for 0–0.
Key stats
Neither side created much – The combined xG was just 0.58 across only 9 shots, with Liverpool edging it slightly (0.41–0.17). But the telling stat was shots on target: 0–0. When neither team can even test the goalkeeper, a goalless draw is inevitable.
A disjointed affair – London City’s 14 fouls (their highest in a single match this season) and 4 yellow cards disrupted any rhythm the game might have found – a clear sign of frustration. It became stop-start rather than flowing, preventing either side from building sustained attacks or creating clear-cut chances.
Retrospection
The model favoured London City (51%), with 0–1, 0–0, and 1–1 the likeliest scorelines. The 0–0 matched one of the scoreline expectations – and frankly, with the lack of chances either side created, it was about right.
Final Word
This was a weekend of extremes: Chelsea and City provided the cleanest ‘model-friendly’ wins – huge xG, huge shot volume, clean sheets – while Arsenal and Brighton were left with the familiar frustration of dominating without reward.
And if there’s a single theme to take forward, it’s finishing. Arsenal’s 2.8 xG produced zero goals; Spurs won despite missing five big chances; Villa beat a team that led the xG battle.
It all came down to finishing
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