2025–26 WSL Gameweek 10 Preview & Predictions
Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City all face bottom-four opposition, while Spurs–Villa and London City–Brighton shape a congested mid-table.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
This round is defined by a clear top–bottom split.
The current top four – Manchester City (1st, 24 pts), Chelsea (2nd, 21), Manchester United (3rd, 17) and Arsenal (4th, 16) – all face sides sitting 9th or lower: Leicester City, Everton, West Ham United and Liverpool respectively. The points gaps are stark, ranging from 13 to 18 points, underlining how heavily favoured the leading pack are on paper.
Beneath them, a compact middle of the table sees Tottenham Hotspur (5th, 16 pts), London City Lionesses (6th, 15) and Brighton (7th, 11) all in action against each other or close rivals, with Aston Villa (8th, 10) trying to cling to their heels.
At the bottom, Liverpool (12th, 2 pts from 8 matches) and West Ham United (11th, 4 pts) are tasked with extremely difficult trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, while Leicester and Everton also face top-two opposition.
The model’s heaviest favourites this weekend are Arsenal and Chelsea (both 84% home win probability), with Manchester City (79% away win) and Manchester United (75% home win) also strongly fancied. London City vs Brighton and Spurs vs Aston Villa look far more evenly poised on the numbers.
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Sat 06 Dec, 12:00 PM | Emirates Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: ARS 84% – 11% draw – 5% LIV
Arsenal
Arsenal come into this after a 2–1 home win over Real Madrid in the UWCL on 19 November, having previously drawn 1–1 with Chelsea in the league on 8 November.
In the league they sit 4th with 16 points from 9 matches (record 4–4–1), scoring 18 and conceding 8 (goal difference +10, 1.78 points per match).
Their recent WSL form reads D–D–W–W–L, reflecting a side that has generally been hard to beat and usually on the right side of the underlying numbers.
Key players: Their top scorer is Alessia Russo (4 goals) while their creative force is Mariona Caldentey (21 chances created).
Liverpool
Liverpool arrive on the back of a 4–1 League Cup win away at Sheffield United on 1 December, following WSL 1–1 draws with Brighton (9 November) and Chelsea (16 November) as they continue to search for a first league win of the season.
In the league they are 12th with 2 points from 8 matches (record 0–2–6), with 5 goals scored, 14 conceded (goal difference –9, 0.25 points per match).
Their recent WSL form reads D–D–L–L–L reflecting some recent improvement in terms of avoiding defeat, but overall they remain under pressure.
Key players: Their top scorer is Beata Olsson (3 goals) while their creative force is Ceri Holland (9 chances created, 2 assists).
Squad Value Snapshot
Arsenal ~€9.44m vs Liverpool ~€2.67m – roughly 3.5× higher for Arsenal on squad valuation.
Recent WSL History
Arsenal have dominated this fixture, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings with Liverpool managing just 1 victory. The Gunners have outscored Liverpool 31-4 across those encounters.
Prediction
Our model makes this one of the most one-sided fixtures of the weekend on paper: 84% home win, 11% draw, 5% away win. The most likely scorelines are 3–0, 2–0 and 4–0, all pointing towards a comfortable Arsenal victory if they play to their underlying level.
Leicester City vs Manchester City
Sun 07 Dec, 12:00 PM | King Power Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: LEI 7% – 7% draw – 79% MCI
Leicester City
Leicester City come into this after a 0–3 home defeat to Crystal Palace in the Women’s League Cup on 23 November, having previously lost 4–1 away to Brighton in the WSL on 16 November.
They sit 9th with 6 points from 9 matches (record 1–3–5), with 6 goals scored and 17 conceded (goal difference –11, 0.67 points per match).
Their recent form L–D–L–D–D underlines a tendency to draw but also a difficulty in turning games around once they fall behind.
Key players: Their top scorer is Noemie Mouchon (2 goals) while their creative force is Samantha Tierney (11 chances created).
Manchester City
Manchester City come into this after a 2–0 away win over Nottingham Forest in the Women’s League Cup on 22 November, having previously beaten Manchester United 3–0 at home in the WSL on 15 November.
City lead the division, sitting 1st with 24 points from 9 matches (record 8–0–1). They have 23 goals scored and 9 conceded (goal difference +14, 2.67 points per match).
Their form is immaculate: W–W–W–W–W across the last five league games.
Key players: Their top scorer is Khadija Shaw (6 goals – highest in the league) while their creative force is Vivianne Miedema (16 chances created).
Recent WSL History
City have a perfect record in the last 8 meetings, winning every encounter without conceding defeat. The aggregate scoreline reads 22-1 in City’s favour.
Squad Value Snapshot
Leicester City ~€1.01m vs Manchester City ~€7.33m – roughly 7× higher for City, reflecting their status near the top of the division in terms of resources as well as performance.
Prediction
The model makes City overwhelming favourites with a 79% chance of an away win, just 7% on a home win and 7%for a draw. The most likely scorelines are 0–2, 0–3 and 0–1, all suggesting a controlled City performance if they hit their usual level.
London City Lionesses vs Brighton
Sun 07 Dec, 12:00 PM | Copperjax Community | Broadcast: Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: LCL 35% – 27% draw – 38% BHA
London City Lionesses
London City Lionesses come into this after a 2–0 away win over Ipswich Town in the FA Cup on 23 November, having previously earned a 3–1 away victory at Aston Villa in the league on 16 November.
They sit 6th with 15 points from 9 matches (record 5–0–4), with 14 goals scored and 19 conceded (goal difference –5, 1.67 points per match).
Their recent league form W–W–L–W–W shows a team that wins often but is open enough to be involved in high-variance games.
Key players: Their top scorer is Isobel Goodwin (3 goals) while their creative force is Kosovare Asllani (25 chances created – the highest in the league).
Brighton
Brighton come into this after a 4–1 home win over Leicester City in the WSL on 16 November, having previously fallen 1–0 at home to Charlton Athletic in the League Cup on 12 November.
They are 7th with 11 points from 9 matches (record 3–2–4), scoring 13 and conceding 10 (goal difference +3, 1.22 points per match).
Recent form W–D–L–L–L is mixed, combining that big win over Leicester with a run of prior defeats.
Key players: Their top scorer is Kiko Seike (3 goals) while their creative force is Marisa Olislagers (17 chances created).
Squad Value Snapshot
London City Lionesses ~€2.30m vs Brighton ~€2.02m – slightly higher for London City, with both clubs operating in a similar band.
Recent WSL History
First ever WSL meeting. The Lionesses are in their inaugural top-flight season, so there is no league history between these sides.
Prediction
The model sees this as one of the round’s tightest fixtures: 38% away win for Brighton, 35% home win for London City and 27% draw. The most likely scorelines are 1–1, 0–1 and 1–2, pointing toward a close contest where a single goal either way – or a draw – feels most plausible.
Manchester United vs West Ham United
Sun 07 Dec, 12:00 PM | Leigh Sports Village Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: MUN 75% – 17% draw – 8% WHU
Manchester United
Manchester United come into this after a 5–2 away defeat to Wolfsburg in the UWCL on 19 November, having previously lost 3–0 away to Manchester City in the league on 16 November.
Despite those setbacks, they sit 3rd with 17 points from 9 league matches (record 5–2–2), with 19 goals scored and 9 conceded (goal difference +10, 1.89 points per match).
Their recent league form L–L–W–W–D includes a pair of earlier wins that helped keep them near the top.
Key players: Their top scorer is Melvine Malard (5 goals) while their creative force is Ella Toone (14 chances created, 5 assists).
West Ham United
West Ham come into this after a 2–0 League Cup defeat away to Portsmouth on 23 November, having previously beaten Everton 3–1 at home in the league on 16 November.
In the WSL they are 11th with 4 points from 9 matches (record 1–1–7), scoring 6 and conceding 20 (goal difference –14, 0.44 points per match).
Form over the last five league games is W–D–L–L–L, with that win over Everton the bright spot.
Key players: Their top scorer is Shekiera Martinez (2 goals) while their creative force is Viviane Asseyi (16 chances created).
Squad Value Snapshot
Manchester United ~€6.27m vs West Ham United ~€1.56m – about 4× higher for United in terms of squad valuation.
Recent WSL History
United hold a strong advantage in the last 11 meetings, winning 7 with West Ham managing just 1 victory. United have outscored the Hammers 27-7 across those encounters.
Prediction
The model heavily favours the hosts with a 75% chance of a Manchester United win, 17% draw and 8% away win. The most likely scorelines are 2–0, 3–0 and 1–0, pointing towards a solid United home performance if they execute.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Sun 07 Dec, 12:00 PM | The BetWright Stadium | Broadcast: Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: TOT 42% – 28% draw – 30% AVL
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham come into this after a 1–0 away win at Bristol City in the Subway Women’s League Cup on 23 November, having previously held Arsenal to a 0–0 draw at home in the league on 16 November.
They are 5th with 16 points from 9 matches (record 5–1–3), with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded (goal difference –1, 1.78 points per match).
Their recent league form D–L–W–L–W reflects a stop–start pattern of alternating wins and setbacks.
Key players: Their top scorer is Cathinka Tandberg (4 goals) while their creative force is Amanda Nildén (13 chances created).
Aston Villa
Aston Villa come into this after a 3–3 home thriller against Birmingham City in the Subway Women’s League Cup on 21 November (losing on penalties), having previously been beaten 3–1 at home by London City Lionesses in the league on 16 November.
In league play they sit 8th with 10 points from 8 matches (record 2–4–2), scoring 9 and conceding 10 (goal difference –1, 1.25 points per match).
Their recent WSL form L–W–D–D–W shows only one defeat in the last five, with several draws keeping them competitive.
Key players: Their top scorer is Kirsty Hanson (3 goals) while their creative force is Chasity Grant (14 chances created).
Squad Value Snapshot
Tottenham Hotspur ~€2.29m vs Aston Villa ~€1.65m – roughly 1.4× higher for Spurs.
Recent WSL History
A perfectly balanced rivalry over the last 10 meetings with Villa holding a slight edge, winning 5 to Spurs’ 3, with 2 draws. The aggregate score is level at 18-18.
Prediction
The model edges towards the home side with 42% win probability for Spurs, 30% for Villa and 28% draw. The most likely scorelines are 1–1, 1–0 and 2–1, suggesting a close game where small margins – and finishing – could be decisive.
Chelsea vs Everton
Sun 07 Dec, 02:30 PM | Cherry Red Records Fans’ Stadium | Broadcast: BBC
Model win probabilities: CHE 84% – 11% draw – 5% EVE
Chelsea
Chelsea come into this after a 1–1 home draw with Barcelona in the UWCL on 20 November, having previously drawn 1–1 away to Liverpool in the league on 16 November.
They are 2nd with 21 points from 9 league matches (record 6–3–0), scoring 16 and conceding 5 (goal difference +11, 2.33 points per match).
Their recent WSL form is D–D–W–W–D – three draws in the last five, not the kind of form we normally associate with Chelsea, they will be eager to put things in place.
Key players: Their top scorer is Agnes Beever-Jones (4 goals) while their creative force is Erin Cuthbert (15 chances created).
Everton
Everton travel for this after a 3–1 away win over Newcastle United in the League Cup on 23 November, having previously lost 3–1 away to West Ham in the league on 16 November.
In the league they are 10th with 5 points from 9 matches (record 1–2–6), scoring 12 and conceding 19 (goal difference –7, 0.56 points per match).
Their recent WSL form is L–L–D–L–D, – winless in the last five and on a 2 match loosing streak, they will be desperate for a result.
Key players: Their top scorer is Ornella Vignola (4 goals) who also leads in creativity (7 chances created).
Squad Value Snapshot
Chelsea ~€11.88m vs Everton ~€1.50m – almost 8× higher for Chelsea, the largest gap in squad valuation in this weekend’s set of fixtures.
Recent WSL History
Chelsea have completely dominated over the last 14 meetings, winning 13 with Everton yet to record a victory. The Blues have outscored the Toffees 42-2 across those encounters.
Prediction
Like Arsenal–Liverpool, the model views this as a heavily tilted contest: 84% home win, 11% draw, 5% away win. The most likely scorelines are 3–0, 2–0 and 4–0, indicating a strong expectation of a multi-goal Chelsea victory if they perform to type.
Final Word
On the numbers, this weekend looks set up for the current top four to consolidate:
Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal are all heavily favoured against opponents in the bottom four, with model win probabilities of 79%, 84%, 75% and 84% respectively.
In the middle of the table, London City vs Brighton and Tottenham vs Aston Villa stand out as genuine contests. The probabilities in both fixtures cluster near the 40–30–30 range, and the most likely scorelines are one-goal games or draws, underlining how finely balanced they are.
For the strugglers, Liverpool, West Ham, Leicester and Everton all face daunting tasks against teams with stronger records, superior underlying numbers and significantly higher squad valuations. Any point they can take from these fixtures would punch above the model’s expectations.