Preview: Manchester United vs Manchester City | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Derby Showdown
We look ahead to Sunday's Manchester derby at Old Trafford with our United vs City prediction and preview. Can United cement their Champions League qualification hopes or will City close the gap?
📅 Date: Sunday, 4th May 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 12:00 BST
📍 Venue: Old Trafford
📺 How to Watch: Sky Sports
🔍 Match Context & Overview
The WSL season reaches a crucial stage as Manchester United hosts Manchester City at Old Trafford with Champions League qualification on the line. United currently occupy 3rd place with 43 points (W13 D4 L3), while City sit just 4 points behind in 4th with 39 points (W12 D3 L5).
This derby carries significant weight beyond local bragging rights – a win for City would close the gap to just one point with remaining fixtures to play, while United could create a commanding 7-point cushion with victory. The reverse fixture saw United claim an impressive 4-2 victory at the Etihad in January, but City have historically had the edge in this rivalry.
Old Trafford provides a fitting stage for what promises to be a fascinating tactical battle between United's defensive solidity and City's possession-dominant approach.
🔴 Manchester United's Fortress
United's home form has been nothing short of exceptional this season, with 7 wins, 2 draws and just 1 loss from 10 matches at Old Trafford. Most impressively, they've conceded just 3 goals at home all season – the best defensive home record in the league.
Their overall defensive record is equally remarkable, with only 10 goals conceded in 20 matches (0.5 per game) – a league-best figure bolstered by 13 clean sheets (65%). American goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce has been central to this success with an outstanding 87.7% save percentage, outperforming her expected goals against by 7.7. She stands on the verge of history – one more clean sheet would equal Mary Earps's single-season WSL record of 14, while two more would break it outright.
United are also chasing collective defensive history. If they can keep clean sheets against both City and Arsenal in their final two matches, they'll match the all-time WSL low of just 10 goals conceded in a 22-game season (set by Chelsea in 2020-21 and Arsenal in 2021-22).
In attack, United have scored 36 goals this season (1.8 per game), with Elisabeth Terland leading the way with 9 goals, supported by Grace Clinton (7 goals) and the creative Celin Ildhusøy (5 assists). United enter this derby with virtually a clean bill of health – a significant advantage. Marc Skinner reported no new injuries after Wednesday's Chelsea match.
🔵 Manchester City's Attacking Prowess
City arrive at Old Trafford with the league's third-best attack, having scored 42 goals in 20 matches (2.1 per game). Their possession-dominant style (65.2% - highest in the league) has yielded impressive attacking returns, though their defensive record (24 goals conceded) remains a concern.
However, City face a significant attacking crisis with all three of their natural center-forwards sidelined. Khadija "Bunny" Shaw (12 goals this season) is not yet back in training, Vivianne Miedema (7 goals) is out with a hamstring tear, and Mary Fowler (6 goals, 7 assists) recently underwent ACL surgery after an injury in the FA Cup semi-final. Expect Jess Park to continue as a false 9.
The return of Lauren Hemp and Alex Greenwood after getting 60 minutes last weekend offers some relief, while Aoba Fujino and Laura Blindkilde Brown have re-joined training this week. Hemp's return is particularly significant – she has provided six assists in just 597 league minutes this season (one every 100 minutes), the best rate in WSL history for any player with 500+ minutes. Sunday could also mark her 100th league start for City if she's named in the starting XI.
Despite their injury challenges, City have an impressive record of finding the net in this fixture – they've scored in all ten previous WSL derbies (19 goals total), with United still hunting their first league clean sheet against their neighbours.
🔥 Key Battle Areas
The tactical contrast between these sides sets up a fascinating contest. City's league-leading possession (65.2% vs United's 50.7%) will face a stern test against United's organised defensive block. City make significantly more passes per match (11,421 vs United's 6,884) and create more chances through possession (29.0 shot-creating actions per 90 vs 22.6).
United's defensive superiority is evident in their tackles and interceptions (694 compared to City's 488), and their goalkeeper's exceptional save percentage (87.7% vs City's 65.2%). While City generate more shots per match (16.55 vs 13.65), United have shown a better conversion rate (13% vs 12%).
A fascinating subplot is the battle between United's record-chasing defense and City's perfect scoring record in this derby. Tullis-Joyce is hunting league history with her clean sheet tally, but City have never failed to score in ten previous WSL derbies – setting up a classic "unstoppable force meets immovable object" scenario.
Key Stats:
Manchester United: 43 points from 20 matches (W13 D4 L3)
Manchester City: 39 points from 20 matches (W12 D3 L5)
United home record: W7 D2 L1, 21 goals scored, 3 conceded
City away record: W6 D2 L2, 18 goals scored, 12 conceded
United clean sheets: 13 (65%)
City clean sheets: 7 (35%)
🏆 Head-to-Head (WSL)
City have historically dominated this fixture, but the gap has narrowed recently:
Manchester City wins: 5
Draws: 3
Manchester United wins: 2
The teams' most recent encounter in January saw United claim an impressive 4-2 victory at the Etihad, though City won 3-1 in their last visit to Old Trafford in November 2023.
The goal statistics show City's historical advantage:
City have scored 19 goals against United
United have scored 12 goals against City
🔎 Players to Watch
Elisabeth Terland (Manchester United)
United's top scorer with 9 goals from 62 shots (3.91 per 90) will be crucial to their attacking plans. Though slightly underperforming her xG of 9.4, her high-volume shooting provides constant threat. Fully fit and ready for the derby after training with the squad on Friday.
Phallon Tullis-Joyce (Manchester United)
The American goalkeeper has been exceptional with 13 clean sheets and an 87.7% save percentage. Her shot-stopping heroics have saved United 7.7 goals based on post-shot expected goals metrics.
Lauren Hemp (Manchester City)
With City's top scorers all sidelined, Hemp's return to fitness comes at a crucial time. Creating the most shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (6.66) with 6 assists in 6.6 90s played, her crossing ability (58 crosses) will be vital after getting 30 minutes against Leicester last weekend.
Jess Park (Manchester City)
With Shaw, Miedema, and Fowler all unavailable, Park is expected to continue as a false 9. Her ability to adapt to this unfamiliar role will be crucial to City's attacking hopes, having shown clinical finishing with 5 goals from just 4.0 xG this season.
📌 Prediction
Based on comprehensive statistical analysis, recent form, and the current injury situation, we forecast:
Manchester United win: 46%
Manchester City win: 29%
Draw: 25%
Key Factors:
United's exceptional defensive record, particularly at home
City's superior possession and chance creation statistics despite injury challenges
United's recent 4-2 victory at the Etihad
City's severe injury crisis in attack, missing all three center-forwards
United's near full-strength squad compared to City's depleted options
City's proven tactical adaptability throughout the season
The high stakes of Champions League qualification
📢 Have Your Say!
Will United's home fortress hold firm against City's attacking talent? Can City close the gap in the race for Champions League qualification? Which derby day heroes will emerge in this crucial WSL clash?