Preview: Manchester City Women vs Crystal Palace | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Final Day
We look ahead to the final WSL fixture of the season at Joie Stadium with our City vs Crystal Palace prediction and preview. Can City end their season on a high against already-relegated Palace?
📅 Date: Saturday, 10th May 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 12:30 BST
📍 Venue: Joie Stadium
📺 How to Watch: BarclaysWSL Youtube Channel
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Manchester City host Crystal Palace on the final day of the WSL season with nothing but pride at stake for both teams. City are locked into 4th place with 40 points (30 clear of their opponents), while Palace are already confirmed for relegation at the bottom of the table with just 10 points.
This fixture represents one of the largest points gaps (30) of any match on the final day, highlighting the stark contrast between these two sides. Although Chelsea’s clash with Liverpool features an even bigger 32-point gulf, the disparity here still underscores the difference in quality between City and Palace. Despite the lack of competitive significance, a festival atmosphere is expected with a potential record crowd at the Joie Stadium as fans celebrate the season's conclusion.
City enter this fixture unbeaten in their last three matches (1W 2D), while Palace recently ended a four-match losing streak with a draw in their previous outing. The hosts will be looking to finish Nick Cushing's interim managerial spell (3W 2D 4L) on a positive note.
🔵 Manchester City's Season Review
City's fourth-place finish represents something of a disappointment given their ambitions at the season's start. Their home form has been inconsistent (6W 1D 3L), scoring 24 goals while conceding 12 at the Joie Stadium.
City's statistical dominance has been clear throughout the season – leading the league in possession (65%) and recording an impressive 28.9 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. Their attacking output of 44 goals showcases their offensive capability, though defensive frailties have cost them at times, conceding 26 goals.
The major storyline surrounding City concerns their injury crisis, with key attackers Khadija "Bunny" Shaw (hamstring), Vivianne Miedema (hamstring), and Mary Fowler (ACL) all sidelined. Shaw's absence is particularly significant as she remains joint golden boot leader with 12 goals – the same tally as Arsenal's Alessia Russo, who plays simultaneously in another fixture.
🦅 Crystal Palace's Relegation Reality
Palace's maiden WSL campaign ends in relegation after a difficult season yielding just 10 points (W2 D4 L15) and a league-worst goal difference of -42. Their away form has been particularly problematic, collecting just 5 points (W1 D2 L7) and conceding 29 goals on their travels.
The Eagles have struggled in all key metrics – maintaining just 41% possession on average, creating only 13.3 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and recording the fewest shots per match (8.0) in the division. Their defensive vulnerability is reflected in conceding a league-high 60 goals.
Palace will be without captain Aimee Everett, who has undergone foot surgery, while Aniek Nouwen and Clarissa Larisey, both recently returned from injury, may still have their minutes managed carefully. Despite these challenges, Palace will be determined to end their top-flight journey with a respectable performance.
🔥 Key Battle Areas
The most significant disparity between these teams lies in attacking output and chance creation. City's 16.5 shots per 90 minutes dwarfs Palace's 8.0, while their respective shot-creating actions (28.9 vs 13.3) highlight the creative gulf.
Despite City's injury crisis depleting their attacking options, Lauren Hemp's creativity (7 assists in just 659 minutes) will pose a significant challenge to Palace's backline. Her remarkable 6.69 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes makes her one of the league's most effective playmakers.
Palace will need to establish a solid defensive structure and look to counter when possible. Their resilience in recent matches suggests they've found some defensive improvement despite their difficult season.
Key Stats:
Man City points: 40 from 21 matches (4th place)
Crystal Palace points: 10 from 21 matches (12th place)
Man City home record: W6 D1 L3, 24 goals scored, 12 conceded
Palace away record: W1 D2 L7, 9 goals scored, 29 conceded
Man City possession: 65% (league-highest)
Palace possession: 41% (league-lowest)
🏆 Head-to-Head Analysis
The previous meeting between these sides this season saw City dominate with a comfortable 3-0 victory. The statistical mismatch was evident as City maintained 79% possession and generated 3.0 expected goals compared to Palace's meager 0.4 xG.
This encounter follows a similar pattern to their first meeting, with City's technical superiority likely to result in significant territorial advantage. However, their depleted attacking options could potentially limit their goal-scoring capabilities compared to the earlier fixture.
🔎 Players to Watch
Lauren Hemp (Manchester City)
With many of City's attackers sidelined, Hemp's creative influence becomes even more crucial. Her 7 assists from just 659 minutes played showcase her exceptional playmaking ability, while her 6.69 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes will be the primary source of danger for Palace's defense.
Jess Park (Manchester City)
The young attacker will likely shoulder additional responsibility in the absence of Shaw and Miedema. Her technical ability in tight spaces and driving runs from midfield could prove decisive against Palace's defensive block.
Katie Stengel (Crystal Palace)
Palace's joint top-scorer with 4 goals has been a rare bright spot in a difficult campaign. Her physical presence and finishing ability represent Palace's best hope of finding the net at the Joie Stadium.
Annabel Blanchard (Crystal Palace)
One of Palace's joint top-scorers with 4 goals, Blanchard has been one of the few bright spots in a difficult campaign. Her technical ability and eye for goal make her a rare attacking threat for the visitors, who will need her creativity to capitalise on limited opportunities at the Joie Stadium.
📌 Prediction
Based on the comprehensive statistical analysis, we forecast:
Manchester City win: 65%
Crystal Palace win: 10%
Draw: 25%
Key Factors:
The massive 30-point gap between the teams
City's technical and possession superiority (65% vs 41%)
Palace's defensive fragility (60 goals conceded)
City's severe injury crisis significantly hampering their attacking options
The absence of golden boot contender Shaw (12 goals) and other key attackers
Palace's improving resilience (recent draw after four straight losses)
The end-of-season context with nothing at stake for either team
📢 Have Your Say!
How will City cope without their injured attacking stars? Can Palace restore some pride on the final day? Drop your predictions in the comments!