Preview: Lyon vs Arsenal | Key Stats & Predictions | UWCL Semi-Final 2nd Leg
We look ahead to tomorrow's UWCL semi-final 2nd leg at Groupama Stadium with our Lyon vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can Arsenal overturn their first leg deficit against the French champions?
📅 Date: Sunday, 27th April 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 17:00 BST
📍 Venue: Groupama Stadium
📺 How to Watch: DAZN, TNT Sports
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Arsenal travel to Lyon for the second leg of their UWCL semi-final tie, looking to overturn a 2-1 deficit from the first leg at the Emirates. The Gunners face the daunting task of defeating a Lyon side that boasts a perfect record in this season's competition with 9 wins from 9 matches.
Despite losing the first leg, Arsenal created more chances (2.1 xG vs Lyon's 1.0), giving them hope they can produce another memorable European night. The Gunners will draw confidence from their spectacular 5-1 victory at this very stadium in October 2022 – Lyon's heaviest UWCL defeat in recent years.
Arsenal received a significant boost ahead of the match with goalkeeper Daphne van Domselaar returning to training after missing the first leg. Her potential inclusion could be pivotal as the Gunners aim to reach the UWCL final.
🔵 Lyon's Formidable Form
Lyon's European campaign has been nothing short of exceptional. With 9 wins from 9 matches, they've scored 27 goals while conceding just 3, demonstrating remarkable efficiency at both ends of the pitch. Their group stage performance was flawless – 18 points from 6 matches with 19 goals scored and just 1 conceded.
Defensively, Lyon has been virtually impenetrable, keeping 6 clean sheets in 9 matches. Teams average just 7.44 shots per 90 minutes against them, with only 1.44 on target. Their expected goals against is a mere 0.63 per match.
At Groupama Stadium, Lyon's home xG differential stands at an impressive +7.9 (+2.64 per match). Their quarter-final second leg saw them dispatch Bayern Munich 4-1 at home, showing their ability to perform in high-pressure European knockout matches.
🔴 Arsenal's European Resilience
Arsenal topped Group C with 15 points from 6 matches (5W, 1L), scoring 17 goals and conceding 9. Their Champions League journey includes an extraordinary comeback against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, where they overturned a 2-0 first leg deficit with a remarkable 3-0 victory at the Emirates.
The Gunners have scored 21 goals in their UWCL campaign while conceding 13. They've shown they can create chances against even the most formidable opponents, generating 23.56 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes – significantly higher than their opponents' 14.67.
Arsenal's away form in Europe has been impressive, with notable victories at Juventus (4-0) and Vålerenga (3-1). Most significantly, their perfect record at Groupama Stadium – that stunning 5-1 win in 2022 – will give them belief they can overcome the deficit.
💪 Goalkeeper Boost: Van Domselaar Returns
Arsenal's hopes have been significantly enhanced by the return to training of first-choice goalkeeper Daphne van Domselaar. The Dutch international missed the first leg but appears set to reclaim her place between the posts for this crucial encounter.
Van Domselaar's statistics in the Champions League this season have been exceptional:
Just 3 goals conceded in 5 starts (0.6 per 90 minutes)
82.4% save percentage – among the highest in the competition
Arsenal concede 0.6 goals per 90 minutes with her in goal, compared to 2.5 with Manuela Zinsberger
Her return could be transformative for Arsenal's defensive solidity. Not only does she offer superior shot-stopping, but her distribution (91.2% pass completion rate) provides a significant boost to Arsenal's build-up play from the back.
🔥 Key Battle Areas
The most fascinating tactical battle will be between Lyon's clinical attack and Arsenal's improving defense. Lyon converts chances with ruthless efficiency, while Arsenal showed in the first leg they can limit Lyon's opportunities (holding them to just 1.0 xG).
Arsenal's possession game (they had 58% possession in the first leg) will be tested against Lyon's pressing. The Gunners' technical quality in midfield, with Kim Little's 90.6% pass completion as the hub, could be crucial to breaking Lyon's defensive structure.
Set pieces could be decisive – Arsenal have multiple proficient takers in McCabe, Kelly, and Mead, while Lyon boasts aerial threats like captain Wendie Renard, who has 3 goals from center-back and wins 66.7% of aerial duels.
Key Stats:
Lyon: 9 wins from 9 UWCL matches, 27 goals scored, 3 conceded
Arsenal: 6 wins, 3 losses in UWCL, 21 goals scored, 13 conceded
Lyon home record: Perfect, with +2.64 xG differential per match
Arsenal's previous visit to Groupama Stadium: Won 5-1 in October 2022
First leg: Lyon won 2-1 despite Arsenal having higher xG (2.1 vs 1.0)
Arsenal need to overcome a one-goal deficit to advance
🏆 Head-to-Head Analysis
The comprehensive head-to-head record between these clubs dates back to 2007, with Lyon historically dominant:
Lyon wins: 6
Arsenal wins: 1
Draws: 1
Goals scored: Lyon 14, Arsenal 10
In matches played at Lyon's home grounds (Stade de Gerland and now Groupama Stadium), Arsenal has struggled with 1 win, 3 losses, and 1 draw. At Arsenal's venues, Lyon has been perfect, winning all 3 matches.
Despite this overall record favouring Lyon, Arsenal's sole victory was particularly emphatic—that stunning 5-1 win at Groupama Stadium in October 2022, which remains Lyon's heaviest UWCL defeat in recent years. In that match, both teams had identical xG (1.7) despite Arsenal's convincing scoreline.
The rivalry has featured several notable knockout ties, with Lyon eliminating Arsenal from UWCL competition in 2007-08 (quarter-finals) and 2010-11 (semi-finals).
The first leg of this semi-final saw Arsenal create better chances (2.1 xG vs Lyon's 1.0) despite losing 1-2, suggesting they can trouble Lyon's otherwise impregnable defense despite the historical head-to-head imbalance.
🔎 Players to Watch
Kadidiatou Diani (Lyon)
Lyon's leading scorer with 6 goals and 4 assists in the competition (1.33 G+A per 90 minutes). Her clinical finishing has seen her exceed her xG (4.1) by 1.9 goals, and she scored in the first leg against Arsenal.
Melchie Dumornay (Lyon)
The 21-year-old star creates 6.63 shot-creating actions per 90 (team high) and has accumulated 9 goal-creating actions alongside her 5 goals and 2 assists. Her dynamic attacking play makes her a constant threat.
Christiane Endler (Lyon)
Lyon's goalkeeper has been exceptional with 6 clean sheets in 9 matches and an 85.7% save percentage. She's conceded just 3 goals while facing 14 shots on target throughout the competition.
Daphne van Domselaar (Arsenal)
Her potential return from injury is a massive boost for Arsenal. With just 3 goals conceded in 5 European starts (0.6 per 90) and an 82.4% save percentage, she could be the difference-maker in Arsenal's quest to overturn the deficit.
Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal)
Arsenal's leading scorer in the UWCL with 6 goals, including 2 penalties, and 2 assists in 8.1 matches. She scored Arsenal's only goal in the first leg from the penalty spot and will be crucial to their comeback hopes.
Alessia Russo (Arsenal)
With 6 goals in 7.6 matches and an impressive 62.5% shots on target rate, Russo's finishing ability will be essential if Arsenal are to overturn the deficit. Her movement and link-up play will test Lyon's defense.
📌 Prediction
Based on comprehensive statistical analysis, historical context, and the potential return of Daphne van Domselaar, we forecast:
Lyon win: 46%
Arsenal win: 35%
Draw: 19%
To Qualify: Lyon: 58%
Arsenal: 42%
Key Factors:
Lyon's perfect record in this season's competition
Arsenal's previous success at Groupama Stadium (5-1 win in 2022)
Arsenal's attacking threat (created 2.1 xG in the first leg)
Lyon's exceptional defensive record (just 3 goals conceded in 9 matches)
The Gunners' proven resilience in European knockout rounds (overturned 2-0 deficit vs Real Madrid)
The potential return of Daphne van Domselaar, who dramatically improves Arsenal's defensive solidity
📢 Have Your Say!
Can Arsenal produce another European comeback? Will Lyon's perfect record continue all the way to the final? Which players will prove decisive in this mouthwatering UWCL semi-final second leg? Drop your predictions in the comments!