Preview: Liverpool Women vs Aston Villa | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Week 18
We look ahead to Sunday's crucial WSL clash at St Helens with our Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Can Amber Whiteley's Reds bounce back from their heavy Arsenal defeat against Villa?
📅 Date: Sunday, 30th March 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 14:00 GMT
📍 Venue: St Helens Stadium
📺 How to Watch: BarclaysWSL YouTube Channel
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Liverpool host Aston Villa at St Helens Stadium with both teams looking to rebound from setbacks. The Reds are aiming to recover from a disappointing 4-0 defeat to Arsenal last weekend, despite winning three of their five matches prior to that result. Villa arrive in desperate need of points following a concerning run of six consecutive WSL defeats.
Liverpool currently occupy sixth place with 21 points from 17 matches, showcasing their mid-table stability under Amber Whiteley's guidance. In stark contrast, Aston Villa sit 11th with just 10 points, hovering precariously just one point above the relegation zone with Crystal Palace breathing down their necks.
🔴 Liverpool's Mid-Season Revival
Liverpool's home form has been reasonable with three wins from eight matches. While their attack hasn't been prolific (17 goals in 17 matches), their clinical finishing has been impressive, with Olivia Smith leading the line effectively with 6 goals—significantly outperforming her expected goals (xG) of 3.6.
Whiteley's side have shown tactical flexibility recently, switching from their established 3-5-2 formation to a 4-2-3-1 system that delivered a notable victory against Manchester United. This adaptability, coupled with their aerial dominance (averaging a league-high 16.3 aerials won per match), has made them a formidable opponent despite their modest possession statistics of 47%.
Defensively, Liverpool have improved but remain inconsistent, conceding 29 goals in 17 matches. Their backline, marshaled by the experienced Gemma Bonner (87 clearances, 64.7% aerial duels won), will need to be vigilant against a Villa side desperate to end their losing streak.
🟣 Aston Villa's Relegation Battle
The struggles under new manager Natalia Arroyo have been profound, with the Spanish coach still searching for her first WSL win since taking charge in January. Six consecutive defeats have left Villa fighting for WSL survival in 11th place. Their away form has been particularly concerning, with zero wins from eight matches on the road (0W, 2D, 6L), scoring just 5 goals while conceding 18.
Villa's possession-based approach (53.4% average—fifth highest in the league) has yielded little reward, with the team creating chances (19.2 xG) but failing to convert efficiently (16 goals scored). Their right-sided focus (41% of attacks) could target potential vulnerabilities in Liverpool's left flank.
Defensively, Villa have the second-worst record in the league, conceding 36 goals in 17 matches. Most worryingly, they've allowed 11.8 more goals than their expected goals against (xGA) of 24.2, suggesting fundamental defensive fragilities that Liverpool will be eager to exploit.
🔥 Key Battle Areas
Liverpool's aerial prowess vs Villa's possession game will be fascinating. The hosts average 16.3 aerial duels won per match (league highest), while Villa maintain 53.2% possession (5th highest). This contrast in styles could determine which team controls the tempo.
In attack, Liverpool's clinical edge against Villa's porous defense appears to be a significant mismatch. The visitors have conceded in 15 consecutive matches and managed just two clean sheets all season, giving Smith and her fellow attackers reason for optimism.
key stats:
Liverpool: 21 points from 17 matches (6W, 3D, 8L)
Aston Villa: 10 points from 17 matches (2W, 4D, 11L)
Liverpool home goals: 9 scored, 10 conceded in 8 matches
Aston Villa away goals: 5 scored, 18 conceded in 8 matches
🏆 Head-to-Head (Last 5 meetings)
Liverpool's recent dominance is clear:
Liverpool wins: 3
Draws: 1
Aston Villa wins: 1
Liverpool won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Villa Park in November 2024, continuing their recent supremacy in this fixture with their third consecutive victory against Villa.
The goal statistics highlight Liverpool's clinical edge:
Liverpool have scored 11 goals against Villa in their last 5 meetings
Villa have managed just 6 goals against Liverpool in the same period
Liverpool have outperformed their xG significantly (11 goals from 5.0 xG)
🔎 Players to Watch
Olivia Smith (Liverpool)
The striker has 6 goals this season despite an expected goals (xG) of just 3.6, demonstrating her clinical finishing. Her movement and composure in front of goal will be crucial against Villa's struggling defense.
Marie Höbinger (Liverpool)
With 2 goals and 1 assist this season, her creativity is vital to Liverpool's attacking play. Leading the team in shot-creating actions (51) and progressive passes (74), her set-piece delivery and playmaking ability could unlock Villa's defense.
Rachel Daly (Aston Villa)
Villa's captain and top scorer with 5 goals remains their primary attacking threat. Her experience and finishing ability will be essential if Villa are to end their losing streak and secure crucial points in their relegation battle.
Kirsty Hanson (Aston Villa)
With 3 assists and 32 shot-creating actions (2.84 per 90), she's Villa's most consistent creative force. Her crossing and link-up play with Daly could provide Villa's best route to goal against Liverpool's robust defense.
📌 Prediction
Our AI model, trained on historical data and recent form, forecasts:
Liverpool win: 59%
Aston Villa win: 18%
Draw: 23%
Key Factors:
Liverpool's need to bounce back from a heavy 4-0 defeat to Arsenal
Their previous momentum with 3 wins from 5 matches before the Arsenal loss
Aston Villa's concerning six-match losing streak
The Reds' clinical finishing against Villa's porous defense
Villa's winless away record this season
Liverpool's recent tactical flexibility and success
📢 Have Your Say!
Can Liverpool bounce back from their heavy Arsenal defeat and return to winning ways? Will Natalia Arroyo finally secure her first WSL win as Aston Villa manager to boost their survival hopes? Which players will prove decisive in this crucial WSL clash? Drop your predictions in the comments!