Preview: Everton Women vs Arsenal | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Week 16

We look ahead to Friday night's WSL clash at Walton Hall Park with our Everton vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can Brian Sorensen's side convert recent draws into a historic first victory?

📅 Date: Friday, 14th March 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 19:00 GMT
📍 Venue: Walton Hall Park
📺 How to Watch: FA WSL Youtube Channel

🔍 Match Context & Overview

Everton host Arsenal at Walton Hall Park on Friday night, aiming for a historic first-ever victory over the Gunners. Brian Sorensen’s side will hope home advantage can inspire an upset, especially given their strong performances on home soil. They currently sit eighth in the table.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are third—11 points behind leaders Chelsea—but with a game in hand. Determined to solidify their push for a top-three finish, they will be confident given their impressive away record this season.

🔵 Everton's Home Comfort

The Toffees have collected 11 of their 16 points at Walton Hall Park this season, averaging 1.57 points per match (PPM) at home compared to just 0.63 away. Their recent form (DLWLW) highlights inconsistency but also proves they can deliver results when needed—particularly on home turf, where they have won three of seven matches.

Defensively, Everton have been particularly well-organised at home, with goalkeeper Courtney Brosnan in outstanding form. She has overperformed her PSxG by an impressive 3.9 and boasts an 82.4% save percentage.

A recent tactical shift to a 4-4-2 formation paid dividends in their 2-0 away win against Aston Villa—a system they may stick with to counter Arsenal’s technical dominance.

🔥 Arsenal's Formidable Firepower

Arsenal will be eager to respond after their shock 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in the Adobe FA Cup quarter-final last Sunday. While the result may have dented confidence, it could just as easily fuel their determination to get back on track quickly.

Despite the setback, the Gunners arrive in scintillating form, having netted 17 goals in their last five WSL matches. Their attacking threat is undeniable, with 38 goals this season (2.53 per match), significantly outperforming their impressive xG of 33.2.

Away from home, Arsenal have been remarkably consistent, winning five of their seven league matches on the road. Their attacking trident—Alessia Russo (8 goals, 2 assists), Mariona Caldentey (6 goals, 3 assists), and Frida Maanum (6 goals, 1 assist)—has been particularly lethal. This firepower is backed by a rock-solid defence, which has kept 9 clean sheets in 15 matches (60%).

📊 The Numbers Tell a Story

Breaking down the numbers: The stats underscore Arsenal’s dominance in both attack and defence, but Everton’s strong home form remains a key factor. The Toffees’ ability to grind out results at Walton Hall Park (11 points at home) suggests they could make this a closer contest than the league standings imply.

🏆 Head-to-Head Record

Recent meetings have shown increasing competitiveness, despite Arsenal's historical dominance:

• Most recent: 0-0 (Emirates Stadium, October 2024)

• Previous: 1-1 (April 2024)

• Arsenal wins: 12

• Draws: 2

• Everton wins: 0

At Walton Hall Park specifically, Arsenal have won 4 times and drawn once, suggesting they're comfortable at this venue despite Everton's general home strength.

🔎 Players to Watch

Honoka Hayashi (Everton)

The Japanese midfielder has been remarkably clinical this season, scoring 4 goals from just 0.9 xG. Her ability to convert limited chances could be crucial against Arsenal’s well-drilled defence.

Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal)

The Spaniard has been in red-hot form, directly contributing to 7 goals in her last 5 games (1.4 goal involvements per match). She has scored in each of her last three WSL matches and will be a key attacking threat once again.

📌 Prediction

While Everton's home form offers genuine cause for optimism, Arsenal's attacking quality and depth make them favourites. However, the Toffees' recent ability to frustrate the Gunners suggests this could be closer than historical records indicate, especially with Arsenal potentially vulnerable after their FA Cup setback.

Our AI model, trained on historical data, xG trends, home/away patterns, as well as our expert analysis of recent cup form, and the narrowing competitive gap in head-to-head meetings, forecasts:

Expected Score: Everton 1-2 Arsenal

• Key Factors:

  • Everton's strong home form (1.57 PPM vs 0.63 away)

  • Arsenal's 5 wins from 7 away WSL matches

  • Arsenal's recent shock FA Cup defeat creating potential vulnerability

  • Two consecutive competitive draws in recent head-to-heads

  • Brosnan's overperformance vs Arsenal's clinical finishing

📢 Have Your Say!

Will Everton finally break their duck against Arsenal? Can the Gunners keep pace in the title race? Which players will be decisive in this Friday night showdown? Drop your predictions in the comments!