Preview: Arsenal Women vs Leicester City | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Round 19

We look ahead to Tuesday's WSL clash at the Emirates with our Arsenal vs Leicester City prediction and preview. Can Arsenal continue their title push against Leicester's resolute defence?

📅 Date: Tuesday, 15th April 2025

⏰ Kick-off: 19:30 BST
📍 Venue: Emirates Stadium
📺 How to Watch: Sky Sports Main Event

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🔍 Match Context & Overview

Arsenal host Leicester City at the Emirates, with the two teams experiencing contrasting fortunes. The Gunners are in scintillating form with six consecutive WSL victories, keeping their title hopes alive as they sit second in the table. Leicester, meanwhile, occupy 10th place but have shown remarkable improvement in recent weeks.

This fixture comes at a pivotal moment for Arsenal, with a Champions League Semi-Final against Lyon looming on Saturday. The high-stakes European clash just four days later is likely to influence Renée Slegers’ team selection and tactical approach.

The 15-point gap between the sides reflects their differing ambitions—Arsenal are chasing down leaders Chelsea, while Leicester are focused on securing their WSL status. Arsenal’s strong home form will be tested by a Leicester side still searching for their first away win of the season.

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🔴 Arsenal's Title Chase & European Balancing Act

Currently second in the WSL with 42 points, Arsenal have been formidable at home, winning six of their nine matches. Their attacking strength is clear: they’ve scored a league-joint-high 49 goals in 18 games (an average of 2.72 per match) and created a league-leading 66 big chances—more than any other side.

Renée Slegers’ team must maintain their momentum if they are to chase down Chelsea in the title race. Their domestic form has been exceptional, with six straight WSL wins producing 24 goals. With just four games left and a six-point gap to the top, every win is now crucial.

However, the likely absences of key players—top scorer Alessia Russo (11 goals), first-choice goalkeeper Daphne van Domselaar (10 clean sheets), and influential winger Chloe Kelly—will test Arsenal’s squad depth even before the Lyon clash. All three picked up slight knocks during the international break, and while not necessarily rested for rotation, their availability remains uncertain. This could open the door for Stina Blackstenius and Manuela Zinsberger to step into the starting XI.

Despite these changes, Arsenal’s defensive solidity remains a strong foundation. They’ve conceded just 13 goals all season—the joint second-best record in the league—and kept 11 clean sheets in 18 matches. That said, the absence of van Domselaar will be a notable disruption to their well-drilled backline.

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🔵 Leicester's Defensive Resilience

Despite struggling in the league, Leicester City lead the WSL in total tackles (469) and tackles + interceptions (676), demonstrating their defensive work ethic. They’ve also recorded the highest number of clearances (576) in the league, with CJ Bott (74 tackles + interceptions) and Sophie Howard (28 blocks) forming the backbone of their defence.

Leicester’s away form (0W, 2D, 7L) highlights the challenge they face at the Emirates. They’ve scored just 3 goals and conceded 17 on their travels, suggesting this will be their sternest test yet.

However, they have shown they can be difficult to break down. They’ve committed only 4 errors leading to shots (fewest in the WSL) and make the most tackles in the defensive third (246), indicating a strong last-line defence.

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🔥 Key Battle Areas

Arsenal’s attack vs Leicester’s defence will be the defining contest. The Gunners average 16.83 shots per match, with 6.33 on target, while Leicester have conceded 27 goals in 18 games. Although Leicester boast a respectable 52.2% tackle success rate, Arsenal’s possession-heavy style (61.6% average possession) will stretch their defensive structure over 90 minutes.

The midfield battle could prove decisive. Arsenal make a greater share of their tackles in the middle third (48.7%) compared to Leicester’s focus on the defensive third (52.5%). Arsenal’s progression through players like Katie McCabe and Leah Williamson will be tested by Leicester’s midfield disruptor Ruby Mace, who will be key in breaking up play and setting the physical tone.

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📊 Key Stats

• Arsenal: 42 points from 18 matches (13W, 3D, 2L)

• Leicester: 16 points from 18 matches (4W, 4D, 10L)

• Arsenal home: 30 scored, 7 conceded in 9 matches

• Leicester away: 3 scored, 17 conceded in 9 matches

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🏆 Head-to-Head (Last 5 WSL Meetings)

Arsenal’s dominance in this fixture is clear:

• Arsenal wins: 5

• Draws: 0

• Leicester wins: 0

Goals scored:

• Arsenal – 14

• Leicester – 2

Clean sheets: Arsenal have kept 3 in these 5 meetings.

The most recent encounter saw Arsenal win 1–0 at the King Power Stadium (Sept 2024), while their last meeting at the Emirates ended in a commanding 3–0 victory.

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🔎 Players to Watch

Katie McCabe (Arsenal)
Leading the WSL with 15 big chances created, McCabe’s delivery from set-pieces and open play will be vital in breaking down Leicester’s defence. Averaging 5.21 shot-creating actions per 90, her influence extends well beyond scoring.

Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal)
Arsenal’s creative hub, Caldentey averages 5.11 shot-creating actions per 90 and has scored 7 goals this season. Her ability to overperform her xG by 1.9 highlights her clinical edge.

Samantha Tierney (Leicester)

With Ruby Mace still sidelined through injury, Tierney's role becomes even more crucial in Leicester's midfield. She has contributed 4 goal-creating actions this season despite modest shot creation numbers, and her defensive work will be essential to disrupt Arsenal's creative flow through the middle.

Janina Leitzig (Leicester)
Leitzig has faced 81 shots on target (5.1 per 90) compared to van Domselaar’s 42 (2.8 per 90), underlining the pressure she faces. Her 71.6% save rate will be tested by Arsenal’s sharp frontline.

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📌 Prediction

Our model, based on historical data and recent form, forecasts:

• Arsenal win: 68%

• Leicester win: 12%

• Draw: 20%

Key Factors:

• Arsenal’s exceptional home record

• Leicester’s poor away form (0W, 2D, 7L)

• The 46-point gap in shot-creating actions between the sides

• Arsenal’s 6-game winning streak

• Leicester’s defensive solidity vs attacking limitations

• Arsenal’s likely squad rotation ahead of the Lyon clash

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📢 Have Your Say!

Can Arsenal maintain their title push with another home win while balancing rotation before their European semi-final? Will Leicester’s disciplined defence frustrate a potentially reshuffled Gunners XI? And how should Slegers balance domestic and European ambitions?

Drop your predictions in the comments!

Edit: Updated on April 14, 2025 to reflect Ruby Mace's continued unavailability due to injury.