Preview: Arsenal vs Manchester United | Key Stats & Predictions | WSL Season Finale
We look ahead to Saturday's season-defining WSL clash at Emirates with our Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Can Gunners secure 2nd place against Skinner's defensive specialists?
📅 Date: Saturday, 10th May 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 12:30 BST
📍 Venue: Emirates Stadium
📺 How to Watch: BBC Two, BBC iPlayer (UK); BarclaysWSL YouTube (international)
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Arsenal host Manchester United in a high-stakes season finale at the Emirates with both teams battling for the coveted second place finish. With Chelsea already crowned WSL champions, this match will determine who finishes as runners-up. Just one point separates the sides, with Arsenal (45 points) narrowly ahead of United (44 points). Both teams have already secured a place in next season’s UEFA Women’s Champions League, but second place carries an important advantage—progressing directly to the third qualifying round. Third place, by contrast, must enter a round earlier at the second qualifying stage, which is typically a mini-tournament format rather than a straightforward two-legged tie.
Arsenal enter this fixture on concerning form, having suffered back-to-back league defeats against Aston Villa (5-2) and Brighton (4-2). In contrast, Manchester United have taken 8 points from their last five matches (W2-D2-L1), including a hard-fought 2-2 draw in the Manchester derby that secured their Champions League qualification. Despite a narrow 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in late April, United have shown resilience in recent weeks and will be eager to cap their league campaign with a statement result. The clash also features intriguing subplots—from Alessia Russo's reunion with her former club to the Golden Boot race, where Russo (12 goals) leads United’s Elisabeth Terland (9 goals).
The Emirates Stadium is on course for another huge crowd, with over 45,000 tickets already sold and the potential to push toward a sell-out. The current WSL attendance record of 60,160—set by these same teams in February 2024—could still be challenged if sales continue strongly. The atmosphere should be electric for a fixture that has produced 24 goals across their last 10 WSL meetings.
🔴 Arsenal's Second Place Push
Currently second in the WSL, Arsenal’s recent league form (W-W-W-L-L) highlights some defensive fragility at a crucial stage of the season. However, their home record remains a key strength: 7 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss at the Emirates, with 35 goals scored and only 8 conceded.
Arsenal boast the most prolific attack in the league, netting 58 goals (highest in the WSL) and averaging 2.76 goals per game. Their creative output is unmatched, generating around 30 shot-creating actions and 4.3 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes. Dominating possession (62.8%, the league’s 2nd best) and with 84% passing accuracy, Renée Slegers’ side are built for sustained attacking pressure.
Alongside their domestic battle, Arsenal are also preparing for a historic Champions League final against Barcelona on May 24—marking their first appearance in the final in 18 years.
🔵 Manchester United's Defensive Fortress
United arrive with the division's stingiest defense, conceding just 12 goals in 21 matches (0.57 per game)—half Arsenal's total. Their 13 clean sheets (61.9% of matches) and impressive defensive metrics (738 tackles + interceptions) demonstrate why Marc Skinner's team is so difficult to break down.
Goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce has been outstanding with a 85.7% save percentage, while their defense has significantly outperformed their expected goals against (xGA) of 20.7, conceding only 12 goals (8.7 fewer than expected).
United's attacking approach is more measured than Arsenal's, with 38 goals scored from 35.8 xG and an average possession of 50.1%. Their direct attacking style (770 progressive passes compared to Arsenal's 1,237) contrasts sharply with Arsenal's fluid build-up play.
United have also been preparing for the FA Cup final against Chelsea on May 18th, with this match serving as an ideal dress rehearsal for Wembley.
🔥 Key Battle Areas
The tactical contrast is stark: Arsenal's league-leading creativity against United's iron-clad defense. Arsenal average 2.76 goals per 90 compared to United's 1.81, while United concede just 0.57 goals per 90 compared to Arsenal's 1.10.
Arsenal's width will be crucial—they've attempted 489 crosses (2nd highest in WSL), compared to United's 415. Their progressive carries (441 vs. 284) also highlight their territorial dominance and attacking intent.
United's discipline could be a factor, with 37 yellow cards compared to Arsenal's 17, reflecting their more physical approach. However, Arsenal have won 4 penalties to United's 1, indicating their ability to put pressure on defenses in dangerous areas.
Key Stats:
Arsenal points: 45 from 21 matches (14W, 3D, 4L)
Manchester United points: 44 from 21 matches (13W, 5D, 3L)
Arsenal goals: 58 scored, 23 conceded (GD: +35)
Manchester United goals: 38 scored, 12 conceded (GD: +26)
Arsenal home record: 7W, 2D, 1L, 35 goals scored, 8 conceded
Manchester United away record: 6W, 2D, 2L, 15 goals scored, 7 conceded
🏆 Head-to-Head (Last 10 WSL Meetings)
The historical record is tight, highlighting how competitive this fixture has become:
Arsenal wins: 4
Draws: 3
Manchester United wins: 3
Arsenal have scored 14 goals while conceding 10 across these meetings. Recent encounters have been particularly dramatic:
The reverse fixture this season (November 3, 2024) ended in a 1-1 draw, with Russo scoring against her former club before Melvine Malard equalized
Arsenal's last home meeting with United (February 17, 2024) ended in a 3-1 victory for the Gunners
United claimed a dramatic 3-2 comeback victory at the Emirates in November 2022 with late goals from Millie Turner and Alessia Russo (then playing for United)
🔎 Players to Watch
Alessia Russo (Arsenal)
The England striker faces her former club for the second time this season, having already scored in the reverse fixture. Leading the Golden Boot race with 12 goals, Russo (recently voted FWA Women's Footballer of the Year) has been clinical, outperforming her xG of 9.4. Her 68 shots (highest in the league) demonstrate her attacking threat.
Katie McCabe (Arsenal)
Arsenal's creative force with the highest expected assists (xAG: 7.2) in the team. Her delivery from set-pieces and crossing ability (part of Arsenal's 489 crosses) will test United's defensive resilience.
Elisabeth Terland (Manchester United)
United's primary attacking threat with 9 goals and 5 assists, averaging 0.83 goal contributions per 90 minutes. A hat-trick would see her draw level with Russo in the Golden Boot race.
Phallon Tullis-Joyce (Manchester United)
Has played every minute this season with 13 clean sheets and an impressive 85.7% save percentage. Her performance could be decisive in neutralizing Arsenal's potent attack.
Maya Le Tissier (Manchester United)
United's captain has played every minute of the season (1,890 minutes), providing defensive stability and leadership. With right-back Jayde Riviere injured and Aoife Mannion suspended, she may need to adapt her role in this crucial fixture.
📌 Prediction
Based on comprehensive statistical analysis and recent form, we forecast:
Arsenal win: 46%
Manchester United win: 28%
Draw: 26%
Key Factors:
Arsenal's superior attacking metrics (58 goals vs. 38)
United's exceptional defensive record (just 12 goals conceded)
Arsenal's concerning recent form (back-to-back league defeats)
United's momentum (only 1 defeat in five league games)
The Emirates factor (45,000+ already sold)
The Russo subplot (facing her former club)
📢 Have Your Say!
Will Arsenal secure second place and direct Champions League qualification? Can United's league-best defense silence the Gunners' attack? Will Russo claim the Golden Boot against her former teammates? Drop your predictions in the comments!