Preview: Arsenal vs Barcelona | Key Stats & Predictions | UEFA Women's Champions League Final
We look ahead to Saturday's showpiece final in Lisbon as Arsenal seek their first European triumph since 2007 against Barcelona, who chase a historic third consecutive title.
📅 Date: Saturday, 24th May 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 17:00 BST / 18:00 CET
📍 Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
📺 How to Watch: TNT Sports (UK), DAZN/YouTube (Global)
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Arsenal and Barcelona meet in a highly anticipated UEFA Women's Champions League Final, bringing together two sides with contrasting recent histories in Europe. Barcelona, the competition’s dominant force in recent years, are aiming to win their third consecutive title and fourth overall since 2021. For Arsenal, this marks a long-awaited return to the European spotlight — their first final appearance since lifting the trophy in 2007.
The journey to Lisbon has unfolded in strikingly different ways for the two finalists. Barcelona responded to an early group stage defeat with ruthless efficiency, winning nine straight matches and racking up 44 goals while conceding only seven. Arsenal, by contrast, carved a more dramatic path to the final — most notably overturning a 2–1 first-leg deficit with a stunning 4–1 away win at Lyon in the semi-finals, sealing their return to Europe’s biggest stage for the first time since 2007.
🔴 Arsenal's European Resurgence
Arsenal's Champions League campaign has been defined by resilience and attacking flair. Across their 10 matches, they've secured 7 wins with 3 losses, scoring 25 goals while conceding 14. Their expected goals (xG) of 21.7 indicates they've been clinical in front of goal, outperforming their expected output.
After finishing first in their group, Arsenal's knockout journey has been nothing short of extraordinary. They overturned a 2-0 deficit against Real Madrid before producing one of the great European away performances to defeat Lyon 4-1 in France, breaking the French side’s unbeaten home run of over two years.
Arsenal's attacking threat is well-distributed, with Mariona Caldentey and Alessia Russo leading the scoring charts with 7 goals each. Caldentey's impact has been particularly significant with 9 goal involvements (7 goals, 2 assists), while Katie McCabe leads the assists table with 3.
🔵 Barcelona's European Dominance
Barcelona's journey to a fifth consecutive final has been a masterclass in attacking football. With 9 wins from 10 matches, they've scored an astonishing 44 goals while conceding just 7. Their expected goals total of 30.3 shows they've outperformed expectations by nearly 13 goals, demonstrating remarkable clinical finishing.
Claudia Pina has been the tournament's standout performer with 10 goals (2.15 per 90 minutes), while Ewa Pajor has contributed 7 goals since joining from Wolfsburg. Barcelona's creative depth is also evident with Patricia Guijarro (5 assists), Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmatí (4 assists each) consistently providing for the forwards.
Barcelona's possession game is peerless, averaging 72.3% across their matches, allowing them to dictate tempo and suffocate opponents. Their midfield trio of Bonmatí, Putellas, and Guijarro controls matches, while Caroline Graham Hansen provides creativity from wide areas.
Key Battle Areas
Central Engine-Room Duel
Barcelona’s free-flowing triangle of Bonmatí – Putellas – Guijarro sets the tempo with 1,885 completed passes between them in the UWCL at an impressive 90% accuracy.
Arsenal’s recent shape has relied on Kim Little as the deep organiser with Mariona Caldentey as the advanced eight. Little (93% pass-completion) and Caldentey (94 progressive passes, most in the competition) will have to play forward early to bypass Barça’s middle-third press.Wide Channels & Transition Threat
Barcelona’s full-backs operate extremely high, averaging 49 touches per 90 in the attacking third. When possession turns over, the space they leave behind becomes Arsenal’s prime counter-attacking lane.Caitlin Foord (left) is Arsenal’s most direct outlet: she tops the competition with 124 progressive receptions and sits third overall for carries into the box (27) — behind only Caroline Graham Hansen (30) and Linda Caicedo (36).
On the right, Chloe Kelly provides a dangerous secondary break option, with lethal crosses into the box.
Another key duel is McCabe vs Graham Hansen: McCabe’s 22 progressive carries will try to pin back the Norwegian, but Hansen has 35 of her own and 116 progressive receptions — third overall in the competition. Controlling this flank will be pivotal as both sides use it as a primary avenue of attack.
Goalkeeper Influence & Distribution
This final could pivot on two of the tournament’s sharpest goalkeepers:Daphne van Domselaar — just 4 goals conceded in 6 UWCL starts (0.67 GA/90) with a 82% save-percentage and 88% pass completion rate. In the 4-1 win at Lyon she completed 44/46 passes (95.7%) and progressed the ball 509 m — more than any out-fielder on the pitch.
Cata Coll — 0.7 GA/90 — has out-performed post-shot xG by +2.0. She completes 66% of her launched passes and averages 1.7 defensive actions outside the box per 90, reflecting her confidence in sweeping behind a high defensive line.
Arsenal will need Van Domselaar’s press-breaking distribution to escape Barça’s first wave, while Barcelona will count on Coll’s sweeping (1.7 defensive actions outside the box per 90) to snuff out counters.
Caveat — Van Domselaar hasn’t featured since her heroic Lyon performance. Whether this was precautionary or strategic, Arsenal fans will hope she returns for the biggest game of all.
Psychological & Tactical Familiarity
Arsenal’s squad includes two former Barcelona players — Mariona Caldentey and Laia Codina — both intimately familiar with the Catalan side’s system.That insider knowledge could prove vital in preparing pressing traps or disrupting Barcelona’s preferred build-up path, particularly the Guijarro → Bonmatí inside-left channel. Arsenal will need to maximise tactical discipline, execution, and perhaps a touch of fortune to overcome a side as dominant as Barcelona.
key stats:
Arsenal UCL record: 7 wins, 3 losses (25 goals scored, 14 conceded)
Barcelona UCL record: 9 wins, 1 loss (44 goals scored, 7 conceded)
Arsenal xG: 21.7 (overperforming by 3.3 goals)
Barcelona xG: 30.3 (overperforming by 12.7 goals)
Arsenal average possession: 60.8%
Barcelona average possession: 72.3%
🏆 Head-to-Head Analysis
Barcelona lead the all-time head-to-head record against Arsenal with 3 wins to 2 losses. However, they haven't met competitively since the 2021/22 Champions League group stage, when Barcelona won both matches convincingly.
Since then, Arsenal have evolved significantly under new management, with two former Barcelona players in their ranks bringing familiarity with Barcelona's approach. This factor alone makes the historical head-to-head less relevant to Saturday's encounter.
The teams' contrasting journeys to the final reflect their playing styles:
Barcelona: Topped their group with 5 wins and 1 loss, demolished Wolfsburg 10-2 on aggregate, and comprehensively defeated Chelsea 8-2 across two semifinal legs
Arsenal: Finished 1st in their group, orchestrated a comeback against Real Madrid (3-2 agg), before stunning Lyon with a 5-3 aggregate victory highlighted by their outstanding 4-1 away win
🔎 Players to Watch
Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal)
The former Barcelona star has been pivotal in Arsenal's European campaign with 7 goals and 2 assists. Her understanding of Barcelona's system combined with her creative vision (94 progressive passes) makes her Arsenal's key attacking threat. Her set-piece delivery will also be crucial should Arsenal are awarded a spot-kick.
Alessia Russo (Arsenal)
Arsenal's prolific striker has netted 7 goals in the Champions League, including vital goals against both Real Madrid and Lyon. Her physical presence, finishing ability (60.7% shooting accuracy), and hold-up play will be essential to Arsenal's counter-attacking strategy against Barcelona's possession game.
Claudia Pina (Barcelona)
The tournament's top scorer with 10 goals from just 4.3 xG, demonstrating exceptional finishing efficiency. Her movement between the lines creates constant problems for defenses, and her goal return of 2.15 per 90 minutes makes her Barcelona's most dangerous attacking threat.
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona)
The Ballon d'Or winner orchestrates Barcelona's midfield with peerless vision and technical quality. With 3 goals, 4 assists, and a team-leading 61 shot-creating actions (6.88 per 90), Bonmatí's ability to control tempo and find spaces between the lines will be vital to Barcelona's game plan.
📌 Prediction
Based on comprehensive statistical analysis and tournament form.
📊 Our Model Prediction
Barcelona win: 55% | Arsenal win: 25% | Draw: 20%
🏆 Trophy-lifting probability:
Barcelona 65% | Arsenal 35%
Key Factors:
Barcelona's superior goal-scoring record and defensive solidity
Arsenal's demonstrated ability to raise their level in knockout matches
Arsenal's proven capacity for comebacks and performances against elite opposition
Barcelona's experience in five consecutive finals vs. Arsenal's first final appearance since 2007
We predict a tense, tactical first half followed by an open second period.
📢 Have Your Say!
Will Barcelona complete their historic three-peat? Can Arsenal cap their remarkable European journey with a second Champions League title? Which players will prove decisive in this fascinating tactical battle in Lisbon? Drop your predictions in the comments!
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