Manchester City vs. Arsenal | Match Preview | WSL Week 13
In this in-depth preview, we break down the key stats, tactical trends, and data-driven insights to reveal how Manchester City and Arsenal match up in this week's WSL showdown.
📅 Date & Time: Sunday, February 2, 2025 | 12 PM (GMT)
🏟 Venue: Joie Stadium, Manchester
1. Overview
Two of the WSL’s top contenders face off in what promises to be a pivotal encounter at Joie Stadium. Arsenal, who boast a resolute defence, seek to rebound from a narrow 1-0 loss to Chelsea. Meanwhile, Manchester City enter the match buoyed by a 4-2 victory over Aston Villa that showcased both their attacking firepower and defensive frailties. Although Chelsea are comfortably ahead—10 points clear of Arsenal and 9 ahead of City—this match remains crucial for each side’s European ambitions.
2. Current League Standings & Recent Form
Manchester City
League Position: 3rd (25 points)
Last 5 WSL Matches: L-W-L-L-W
Goals Scored/Conceded (Last 5): 11 scored | 10 conceded
Home Form: 3W-1D-1L (15 points from home matches)
Key Trend: Inconsistent performances but strong attacking output (2.25 goals per match)
City’s recent 4-2 win over Aston Villa has injected fresh confidence into the squad. Vivienne Miedema’s brace showcased her returning sharpness, while Mary Fowler’s spectacular goal further underlined her importance in attack. Conceding two preventable goals, however, highlights City’s ongoing defensive vulnerabilities. With Bunny Shaw returning from injury, City’s forward line looks potent, but defensive lapses remain a concern.
Arsenal
League Position: 4th (24 points)
Last 5 WSL Matches: W-W-W-W-L
Goals Scored/Conceded (Last 5): 13 scored | 1 conceded
Away Form: 4W-1D-1L (66.67% win rate)
Key Trend: Elite defence, conceding just 0.50 goals per match this season
Despite a 1-0 loss to Chelsea in their latest outing, Arsenal put on a strong defensive display. Their challenge remains converting scoring opportunities, a weakness evident against Chelsea’s organised back line. With Katie McCabe suspended, Arsenal may need to shuffle the defence—Steph Catley, who has formed a strong canter-back partnership alongside Leah Williamson, could be moved to left-back to fill McCabe’s void. That potential disruption in the back line will test Arsenal’s depth, though their overall defensive record remains impressive.
3. Head-to-Head Record
Last 10 Meetings: 4 Wins Each, 2 Draws
Recent Results:
2024-09-22: Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City
2024-05-05: Manchester City 1-2 Arsenal
2023-11-05: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
2023-04-02: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
2023-02-11: Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal
Goals per Match (Last 10): 3.2 (High-scoring encounters)
Key Trend: Arsenal are unbeaten in the last four matches against City. However, playing at Joie Stadium poses a stern test, given City’s strong home form.
4. Key Players & Statistical Profiles
Manchester City
Vivienne Miedema: Back among the goals with a brace against Aston Villa.
Mary Fowler: 3 goals, 3 assists, 14 chances created in the last 5 matches; her standout strike vs. Villa emphasises her goal-scoring capability.
Jill Roord: 2 assists, 9 chances created; influential in transitional play.
Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw: Returning from injury and poised to provide an additional attacking boost.
Key Trend: With Miedema and Fowler both firing, City’s offense can trouble any defence. But they must shore up the back line to avoid negating their attacking efforts.
Arsenal
Alessia Russo: 5 goals, 1 assist, 5 chances created in the last 5 matches; remains the Gunners’ main threat.
Katie McCabe: 2 assists, 7 chances created—suspended for this match, affecting both creativity and defensive solidity out wide.
Mariona Caldentey: 2 goals, 1 assist, 5 chances created; adept at linking midfield to attack.
Defensive Setup: The Williamson-Catley canter-back pairing has been formidable; however, McCabe’s absence may force Catley to the left, altering Arsenal’s defensive shape.
Key Trend: Arsenal’s typically rock-solid back line faces a reconfiguration that could be tested by City’s potent attacking trio.
5. Tactical Breakdown
Manchester City’s Approach
Formation: Likely 4-3-3
Possession Focus: 69.33% average possession, relying on midfield dominance
Defensive Shape: High press susceptible to leaving gaps
Key Elements: Overlapping full-backs, short-passing build-up, proactive pressing
Potential Weakness: Conceding preventable goals (e.g., the two conceded vs. Aston Villa)
Arsenal’s Approach
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Possession Focus: 59.75% average, but comfortable defending deeper
Defensive Shape: Compact, usually conceding just 0.50 goals per match
Key Elements: High pressing in big games, lethal counter-attacks, looking to rediscover clinical finishing
Potential Weakness: Defensive reshuffle without McCabe; finishing woes surfaced against Chelsea
6. Key Statistical Matchups
🎯 Total Passes: Manchester City 598 | Arsenal 540
🎯 Pass Accuracy: Manchester City 87.6% | Arsenal 83.58%
🎯 Expected Goals (xG): Manchester City 27.0 | Arsenal 24.7
🎯 Goals Conceded per Match: Manchester City 1.17 | Arsenal 0.50
🎯 Shots on Target per Match: Manchester City 6.4 | Arsenal 5.33
Key Trend: City dominate possession, but Arsenal’s defense is superior. If Arsenal press well, they can capitalise on turnovers.
7. Potential Game-Changers
Substitutions & Late Surges: Bunny Shaw’s role off the bench could be pivotal if City need an extra spark in the final third.
Set Pieces: Arsenal often excel at corners, while City generate more from open play.
Defensive Shifts: If Arsenal shift Catley to left-back, it may expose new defensive partnerships in central areas for City to exploit.
8. Prediction & Key Details
Predicted Scoreline: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
Reasons:
Arsenal’s Defensive Solidity: Even with a reshuffle, the Gunners’ discipline at the back remains statistically superior.
City’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: Conceding two to Aston Villa mirrors a broader trend of leaking goals, which Arsenal could exploit.
Head-to-Head Momentum: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four against City.
High-Stakes Battle for Europe: With Champions League qualification on the line, Arsenal may edge it, albeit narrowly.
9. Conclusion
While Chelsea’s dominant lead limits any direct title implications, this match is critical for both City and Arsenal in securing a Champions League spot. Expect an intense encounter at Joie Stadium, where Manchester City’s potent attack, led by an in-form Vivienne Miedema and Mary Fowler, will look to challenge an Arsenal side forced into defensive adjustments. If the Gunners can translate their pressing into tangible attacking returns—and if Russo finds her scoring touch—City’s frailties at the back could prove decisive.
Key Takeaways:
Champions League Race: A critical match in the fight for top-three positioning.
Defensive Reshuffle: Arsenal’s back line stability may hinge on how they handle McCabe’s suspension.
Players to Watch: Miedema and Fowler’s dynamic partnership for City, plus Russo’s potential to punish defensive lapses.
A narrow, hard-fought contest seems likely, with Arsenal holding a slight edge based on recent head-to-head successes and their ability to keep opponents at bay.
💬 What’s your prediction? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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