Manchester United WSL 2025-26 Opening Five Fixtures: Aiming for the Summit
United face a mixed start: 3 winnable games and 2 early tests against last season’s top two, Arsenal and Chelsea. It’s a chance to build momentum — but also an early gauge of their title credentials.
Introduction
Manchester United Women’s 2025–26 WSL season begins on the back of a strong 2024–25 campaign. They finished third with 44 points, clinching the final Champions League spot by a one point over Man City and narrowly missing out on second to Arsenal on the final day. Marc Skinner’s side were title contenders for much of last season but slipped to third after a winless final five matches.
With Champions League football secured, United would aim to sustain a serious challenge to Chelsea and Arsenal this year. Their opening five fixtures include three matches they’ll be expected to win and two early tests against last season’s top two.
To quantify fixture difficulty, we use a star rating (★☆☆☆☆ easiest to ★★★★★ hardest) based on an Elo-derived win probability from United's perspective.
The table below summarises the first five matches, with win/draw/loss odds and star ratings:
Opening Outlook
On paper, United should win the two lower-rated fixtures (Leicester, London City) and target victory at Liverpool, but the two home clashes with Arsenal and Chelsea will be difficult tests. The average win probability across these five games is about 49%, reflecting a relatively even slate with the home fixtures against the reigning top two standing out as the toughest challenges.
Fixture Breakdown
GW1: vs Leicester City (Home) – September 7
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Very Favorable)
Win Probability: 72%
Analysis
Manchester United begin their 2025–26 campaign at Leigh Sports Village against a Leicester side that finished 10th last season with just 20 points and a –16 goal difference. On paper, it’s an ideal opener and anything short of three points would be a major disappointment.
Leicester did end last season on a high, beating West Ham 4–2 on the final day, so United will need to avoid complacency.
United have dominated this fixture recently. They've won 10 of the last 14 games, with 3 draws and just 1 loss. They're unbeaten in their last 7 meetings and have won the last 4 in a row.
United's squad is valued at €6.0m compared to Leicester's €0.86m, nearly seven times higher. United have multiple internationals while Leicester work with one of the league's smallest budgets. Unless United have an off-day, their attack should overwhelm Leicester's defense.
Prediction: Three points for United. A 2–0 home victory looks most likely, with United aiming to start fast and rack up goals to build confidence.
GW2: @ London City Lionesses (Away) – September 14
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Favorable)
Win Probability: 57%
Analysis
Matchweek 2 sees United visit London City Lionesses for London City's first-ever WSL home match. The newly promoted side topped the Championship and arrive in good form - unbeaten in their final five games at that level (3W, 2D). They'll be energized by this historic occasion. However, newly promoted teams often struggle with the step up to WSL intensity.
This is the first competitive meeting between United and London City in league or cup. With no previous data, there’s an unknown element—but history suggests first-time fixtures rarely derail United when they’re well-prepared.
United’s €6.0 m squad valuation dwarfs London City’s ~€1.0 m, marking a six-fold gap in resources and depth. While London City have added experienced internationals (e.g., Daniëlle van de Donk, Nikita Paris) to accelerate their adaptation, cohesion may still be a work in progress.
United’s defence—one of the league’s stingiest last season (16 goals conceded)—should cope well on paper, provided energy and focus remain high after the opening weekend.
Prediction: United should secure three points, though newly promoted side can still spring a surprise.
GW3: vs Arsenal (Home) – September 21
Difficulty Rating: ★★★★☆ (Very Tough)
Win Probability: 35%
Analysis
United’s first true test of the season comes against last year’s runners-up, Arsenal — a matchup between the 2nd- and 3rd-placed sides from 2024–25 season and an early six-pointer in the title race.
Arsenal finished four points ahead of United last season, sealing 2nd place with a thrilling 4–3 win on the final day — a result United will be desperate to avenge on home turf.
This rivalry has grown increasingly competitive in recent seasons. In the last five meetings across all competitions, United hold a 1W–2D–2L record — their lone win a 1–0 home victory in April 2023.
The last two league fixtures at Leigh Sports Village ended in draws (1–1 in Nov 2024 and 2–2 in Oct 2023), showing United can hold their own at home. But Arsenal’s narrow edge in recent results reflects their consistency at the top level.
Arsenal’s squad (€9.9 m) remains one of the most valuable and well-rounded in the league, bolstered further by their UEFA Champions League triumph. They arrive with confidence. United’s slightly leaner squad (€6.0 m) will need to raise its level in all departments, especially defensively.
Prediction: This could go either way. United are more than capable of taking something at home, and a draw would keep them firmly in the title conversation. A 1–1 result or narrow win either way feels most likely.
GW4: @ Liverpool (Away) – September 28
Difficulty Rating: ★★☆☆☆ (Moderate)
Win Probability: 50%
Analysis
A short trip to Merseyside presents a potentially tricky fixture for United. Liverpool finished 7th last season and might not be title contenders, but they've proven to be a thorn in United's side recently, winning three of the last five meetings across 2023 and 2024.
Liverpool stunned United 3–1 in the league last season, having done the double the year before (2–1 and 1–0).
While United posted convincing early-season wins in 2024–25 — 2–0 in the League Cup and 4–0 in the league — the Reds’ knack for springing surprises means complacency could be costly; that 3–1 defeat in March snapped United’s seven-match WSL winning streak.
United hold a clear talent advantage with their €6.0m squad valuation compared to Liverpool's modest €2.3m.
This fixture comes sandwiched between the Arsenal and Chelsea showdowns, raising the risk of a mental lapse.
Liverpool's inconsistent late-season form (1W–1D–3L in their final five games) suggests vulnerability that Utd can certainly take advantage of.
Prediction: A hard-fought encounter where United's quality should tell. A 2–1 away victory looks achievable, though a 1–1 draw wouldn't be disastrous given recent history between these sides.
GW5: vs Chelsea (Home) – October 4
Difficulty Rating: ★★★★☆ (Very Tough)
Win Probability: 29%
Analysis
United's toughest early fixture arrives in Gameweek 5, hosting defending champions Chelsea in a marquee clash with major title implications. Chelsea completed a historic unbeaten season (60 points) and enter as overwhelming favorites, but United will be fired up to make a statement at home.
The recent head-to-head makes sobering reading for United. Chelsea have dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 meetings, including a 3–0 FA Cup final victory and the 1–0 win at Leigh Sports Village that sealed last season's title.
Chelsea's squad valuation (€11.7m) nearly doubles United's (€6.0m), reflecting their world-class depth across all positions. Their prolific attack (56 league goals) and rock-solid defense (13 conceded) present problems everywhere.
United's best hope lies in staying compact defensively and striking on the counter or set pieces. A sold-out Leigh Sports Village and potential midweek European fatigue for Chelsea could level the playing field slightly, but United will need goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce at her absolute best.
Prediction: Anything United can salvage would be a major result. A 1–1 draw would be creditable and keep them in the title conversation, though a narrow defeat seems more realistic given Chelsea's dominance in this fixture.
Expected Points and Predictions
Based on the difficulty ratings and historical trends, a realistic return for United from these opening five matches would be around 10 points out of 15. For example, this could come from three wins, one draw, and one loss:
Wins (3): vs Leicester City, @ London City, @ Liverpool – 9 points
Draws (1): vs Arsenal – 1 point
Losses (1): vs Chelsea – 0 points
Total: 10 points
That would represent a solid start for United—winning the games they're favoured in and holding their own against at least one title rival. Around 10 points should keep them in the top-three mix and within touching distance of the leaders. Anything above that (e.g. beating Arsenal or Chelsea) would be a strong early statement.
Anything below 8–9 points, however, would be a concern. Dropping points to Leicester, London City, or Liverpool would hand rivals an early edge and raise questions about consistency.
Key Strategic Considerations
Travel Burden
United have a relatively kind travel schedule to start the season. They alternate home and away fixtures across the first five, avoiding any back-to-back away trips. The only long journey is the GW2 visit to London City (~360 km), while GW4 at Liverpool is a short 55 km trip.
This structure should minimise fatigue and allow for consistent preparation—especially compared to Arsenal’s two Manchester away days.
Title Race Implications
United face both Arsenal (GW3) and Chelsea (GW5) in the opening month—two early showdowns that could shape their campaign.
Dropping points in both would leave them chasing early ground. But a win in either would be a major statement. Even two draws would signal progress and keep them within range of the top.
These fixtures won’t define the title race, but they’ll influence how United are perceived: contenders or outsiders.
Squad Management
Unlike Chelsea and Arsenal, United’s core players logged fewer minutes at Euro 2025, with several internationals playing limited roles or exiting early. This gives Skinner an edge in early squad freshness.
GW1 (Leicester) and GW2 (London City) offer low-risk rotation opportunities, but potential UWCL qualifiers on 11 & 18 September compress the schedule.
United’s squad (valued at €6.0m) has quality but less depth than the top two.Smart rotation and game management—especially in the GW3–5 stretch—will be key to keeping key players fit and points flowing.
Conclusion
United's opening five fixtures offer a platform to build momentum and confidence in their title pursuit. By mid-October, we'll know whether they have hit the ground running or have work to do to catch up.
If United can capitalise on the favourable games and hold their own against Arsenal and Chelsea, they'll affirm their status as real contenders for 2025–26. However, any early slip-ups will be a reminder that the final step to the summit is often the hardest one to take. The journey begins now, and United will be determined to make a statement.
Data & Model
Win probabilities are derived from an in-house Elo-based model (updated Aug 5, 2025). Recent form, head-to-head stats and baseline team metrics are taken from FBref, and squad market values use Soccerdonna's 21 Jul 2025 estimates.
This analysis is part of our comprehensive WSL Season Preview series. Next up: Manchester City’s opening fixtures — the first under new manager Andrée Jeglertz, as they look to bounce back from last season’s narrow Champions League miss and prove they can rejoin the title race.
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