Manchester City WSL 2025-26 Opening Five Fixtures: Redemption Road
City face an immediate title test at Chelsea, plus four fixtures offering points-gathering opportunities as they seek to bounce back from a disappointing 2024-25 campaign. Analysis with predictions.
Introduction
Manchester City Women enter the 2025–26 WSL season determined to rebound from a frustrating 2024–25 campaign. They finished a disappointing fourth (43 points), narrowly missing out on a Champions League spot by just one point and ending the year without silverware. Despite that setback, City closed last season on a strong note – going unbeaten in their final five league matches – and will aim to carry that momentum forward.
With a talented squad featuring many internationals, City's profile remains elite, though their squad value (~€7.2 million) is notably leaner than rivals Chelsea (~€11.7m) and Arsenal (~€9.9m). Expectations in Manchester are high: after falling just short of the top three, City will be intent on re-establishing themselves as title contenders and securing a Champions League return.
City's opening five fixtures present a mixed slate of challenges. Three games are against sides that finished in the bottom half (or were in the second tier) last season, which City will be expected to win. However, two matchups are early showdowns with last year's top two, Chelsea and Arsenal – both genuine tests of City's ambitions.
To quantify fixture difficulty, we use a star rating (★☆☆☆☆ easiest to ★★★★★ hardest) based on an Elo-derived win probability from City's perspective.
The table below summarises the first five matches, with win/draw/loss odds and star ratings:
Opening Outlook
On paper, Manchester City should bank three wins from the three lower-rated fixtures (Brighton, Tottenham, London City). Those matches each carry an expected win probability above 60%, making City clear favorites. Collecting nine points from those games is crucial because the other two fixtures are markedly tougher: the trip to Chelsea in Week 1 and the home clash with Arsenal in Week 5 loom as early measuring sticks.
The average win probability across the five games is about 53%, reflecting a mixed schedule. A reasonable expectation would be for City to take at least one positive result (win or draw) from the Chelsea/Arsenal games while handling business in the rest. If they can do that, City will emerge from this opening stretch in a strong position. On the other hand, any surprise drop-points in the "easy" games or defeats in both big matchups could leave them playing catch-up in the title race.
Fixture Breakdown
GW1: @ Chelsea (Away) – September 5
Difficulty Rating: ★★★★☆ (Very Tough)
Win Probability: 24%
Analysis
Manchester City kick off their season with a heavyweight clash away to defending champions Chelsea. Our model gives City only about a 1-in-4 chance of victory at Kingsmeadow. This is arguably one of their hardest games all campaign. Anything City can take from this opener would be a huge plus.
City and Chelsea have developed a fierce rivalry in recent years. Chelsea, though, do have the edge with a record of (4W, 1L) in their last 5 meetings. The Blues went unbeaten in the league last season (19–3–0) and won both WSL meetings with City, including a 2–0 home win in November and a 2–1 win in Manchester.
Squad comparisons underscore the challenge for City. Chelsea boast the league's most valuable squad (~€11.7m) and enormous depth. City's roster (~€7.2m) is full of talent but thinner, meaning the margin for error is smaller. City will need their attacking stars to be at their very best to trouble a Chelsea side that conceded just 13 goals last year.
A positive for City is that they finished last season strongly and have had this fixture circled all summer, knowing that an opening day result would send a massive statement to their rivals.
While an away loss wouldn't be catastrophic given Chelsea's strength, they must be wary as Chelsea haven't lost a WSL match at Kingsmeadow in nearly two years, though their last defeat there was to City.
Prediction: Chelsea's championship pedigree makes them favorites. City could snatch a draw if they defend resolutely and capitalise on any chances they get, but a narrow defeat is the most likely outcome.
GW2: vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Home) – September 13
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Favorable)
Win Probability: 70%
Analysis
City's home opener, on paper, is a much simpler task. Brighton finished 5th last season with 28 points – a strong improvement for them, but there remains a sizeable gap between Brighton and the league's elite.
History favors City heavily in this matchup. They have won 8 of the last 10 WSL meetings against Brighton. The only blemish in that run was a shock 0–1 home defeat in November 2023, a result that will still be fresh in City's mind.
Aside from that upset, City typically have had no trouble scoring against the Seagulls – recent seasons have seen scorelines like 4–1 and 7–2 in City's favor.
Brighton's squad is valued around €1.51m – only about one-fifth of City's squad value – reflecting a roster built more for mid-table. Brighton struggled defensively last year (41 goals conceded), so this match is an opportunity for City's attackers to find rhythm and boost their goal tally.
Form at the end of last season also tilts toward City. They were unbeaten in their last 5, Brighton on the other hand had an up-and-down finish, with 3 loses though they had a big win against Arsenal in that run.
Prediction: A straightforward home win for City. Barring another freak result, City should control the game and could win by a multi-goal margin. Dropping points here would be a shock and a setback to their momentum.
GW3: @ Tottenham Hotspur (Away) – September 20
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Favorable)
Win Probability: 60%
Analysis
Matchweek 3 sends City on the road again, this time to north London to face Tottenham. Although Spurs are an established WSL side, they finished 11th last season with only 20 points and were battling relegation until the final weeks. This is a game City will expect to win, even away from home.
Manchester City have dominated this fixture ever since Tottenham were promoted. City have never lost to Spurs in the WSL, winning all eight league meetings to date (and often in emphatic fashion).
Last season City swept Spurs with ease – including a 4–0 thrashing in Manchester and a 2–1 win in London. Tottenham did hold City to a 1–1 draw in an FA Cup tie in March (City advanced on penalties), but in regular time City have had Spurs' number.
Squad depth and talent differential are significant. Tottenham's total squad value (~€2.4m) is roughly one-third of City's, and Spurs lack the star power in key areas.
Spurs did have some bright spots last year – they can be organised defensively on their day and have a capable striker in Beth England – but overall they scored just 26 goals in 22 games and conceded 44.
Prediction: City to collect all three points. Tottenham may put up resistance early, but City's quality should break through before long. A professional 2–0 away win for City is the expectation.
GW4: vs London City Lionesses (Home) – September 27
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Very Favorable)
Win Probability: 74%
Analysis
Newly promoted London City Lionesses visit Manchester in Week 4, marking the first-ever WSL meeting between the clubs. On paper this is City's easiest fixture of the opening five. London City are WSL debutants and will likely be battling near the bottom this season, so City will be heavy favorites at home.
There is no head-to-head history in the top flight, but London City did face WSL teams in cup competitions in recent years. For instance, Arsenal met them in five cup matches and Arsenal won all five by a combined 16–0.
That gives a sense of the gulf in quality that tends to exist between established WSL contenders and newly promoted sides. City will aim to impose themselves early and not give the underdogs any encouragement.
London City earned promotion by winning the Championship last season, finishing top of the table. They ended the season on a 5-game unbeaten run (3 wins, 2 draws) to clinch their WSL place, so they are no pushovers.
Over the summer, they aggressively recruited experienced internationals – including stars like Daniëlle van de Donk, and Nikita Parris – to bolster their squad.
That injection of quality gives London City a fighting chance to compete in the WSL. However, it may take time for those new signings to gel, and adjusting to WSL intensity is a steep learning curve.
Prediction: A comfortable win for City. London City might be spirited, but anything other than a City victory would be one of the biggest surprises of the season.
GW5: vs Arsenal (Home) – October 3
Difficulty Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Balanced)
Win Probability: 39%
Analysis
The opening stretch culminates with a massive encounter as Arsenal come to the Joie Stadium. This is a showdown between two top-four rivals – last season's runners-up versus the fourth-place finishers.
It's not only a rematch of many classic WSL battles, but also an early six-pointer in the race for Champions League qualification (and possibly the title).
The Gunners collected 48 points and were runners-up last season. They enter this season with sky-high confidence after being crowned European champions in May (winning the 2025 UWCL) for the second time in their history. Their squad is one of the league's best in quality and depth (€9.9m+ valuation). In short, Arsenal pose a formidable challenge.
Recent head-to-head form between City and Arsenal has been very tight. In the last five meetings across all competitions, both teams have two wins each, with one draw.
Arsenal had a slight upper hand last season: they drew 2–2 at home and then edged City 4–3 in a thriller away at City. In the WSL alone, City are yet to win Arsenal in their last 5 meetings. In fact, Arsenal have won twice on the bounce at City ground.
With both teams likely eyeing the title, there is added pressure to not drop points. Neither side will want to lose this match and hand momentum to a rival. A cautious approach might prevail initially, but given the talent on show, moments of individual brilliance could tilt the balance.
Prediction: This one feels too close to call. A draw is a strong possibility and arguably wouldn't dissatisfy either camp at this stage. City will push for a win on home soil, but a 1–1 stalemate might be the most realistic outcome.
Key Dates to Watch
📅 September 5 – @ Chelsea: Season opener against the reigning champions. A pivotal away test right out of the gate – how City perform in this match could either galvanize them or serve as a reality check.
📅 October 3 – vs Arsenal: A home showdown with last year's runners-up and European champions. This match could be an early six-pointer in the title race and will be crucial for setting the tone going into the autumn.
Key Strategic Considerations
Travel Burden
Unlike some rivals who face extensive travel early on, City's schedule is fairly kind travel-wise. Three of their first five games are at home in Manchester. The two away trips (Chelsea in GW1 and Tottenham in GW3) both happen to be to London, meaning the team will make only two long southward trips in the opening month.
Title Race Implications
By Week 5, City will have already played two of their primary competitors for the title/Champions League spots (Chelsea and Arsenal). These early showdowns mean City's start could either launch a title challenge or immediately put them on the back foot.
Dropping points in both big games would leave City having to play catch-up to the likes of Chelsea/Arsenal, so there's pressure to secure at least a draw in one of them. Conversely, if City can win one of those marquee games, it would send a statement and directly boost their position in the table relative to a rival.
The three "should-win" fixtures (Brighton, Tottenham, London City) are equally important in the title race equation. City cannot afford complacency or slip-ups in those matches – banking those 9 points is essentially required if they want to keep pace at the top.
Squad Management
An underlying factor in these early weeks is player fatigue and rotation, especially given many City players participated in the UEFA Women's Euro 2025 over the summer. Key internationals in the England squad (and other national teams) had a shorter offseason due to deep tournament runs.
We might see some rotation in the fixtures around the international break – for example, the home match against London City (GW4) could be an opportunity to rest regular starters coming off heavy schedules.
The good news for City is that their squad, while not as deep as Chelsea's, still has quality in reserve. Young talents and new signings may get chances in the lower-difficulty games.
Expected Points and Predictions
Based on the difficulty ratings and win probabilities for each fixture, a plausible outcome for Manchester City's opening five games is: three wins (vs Brighton, @ Tottenham, vs London City), one draw (from the two big-six encounters), and one loss (in the other big match). In practical terms, that scenario might entail City winning all the games they are favored in, drawing with Arsenal at home, and losing narrowly at Chelsea.
Wins (3): Brighton, Tottenham, London City – 9 points
Draws (1): either Chelsea or Arsenal – 1 point
Losses (1): the remaining top opponent – 0 points
Total: 10 points
That would give City roughly 10 points from 5 matches. This would be a solid start – not spectacular, but likely keeping them within reach of the league leaders. It would also match what Arsenal managed in their first five last year when finishing second.
Anything above 10 points (for example, winning one of the big two games to reach 12+ points) would be an excellent outcome and could put City at or near the top of the table. Anything below 9 points, however, would be concerning relative to City's ambitions.
Conclusion
City's opening five fixtures offer a platform to build momentum and confidence in their title pursuit. By early October, we'll know whether they have hit the ground running or have work to do to catch up.
If City can capitalise on the favourable games and hold their own against Chelsea and Arsenal, they'll affirm their status as real contenders for 2025–26. However, any early slip-ups will be a reminder that the final step to the summit is often the hardest one to take. The journey begins now, and City will be determined to make a statement.
Data & Model
Win probabilities are derived from an in-house Elo-based model (updated Aug 5, 2025). Recent form, head-to-head stats and baseline team metrics are taken from FBref, and squad market values use Soccerdonna's 21 Jul 2025 estimates.
This analysis is part of our comprehensive WSL Season Preview series. If you found this breakdown valuable, please consider subscribing and sharing it and join the conversation on X (@WSLAnalytics).