Chelsea WSL 2025-26 Opening Five Fixtures: Maintaining Their Dominance

Defending champions Chelsea face two early showdowns against title rivals (Man City and Man Utd) amidst three fixtures in which they will be heavy favourites. Complete analysis with predictions.

Source: Chelseafc.com

Introduction

Chelsea's 2025–26 Women's Super League campaign begins on the back of a historic 2024–25 season. Under new manager Sonia Bompastor, the Blues went unbeaten (19 wins, 3 draws) and amassed 60 points – a WSL record – finishing 12 points clear at the top. As six-time reigning champions, they enter this season as the team to beat, aiming to maintain their dominance.

Their opening five fixtures (three against ostensibly weaker sides, two against likely title rivals) present an opportunity to build a strong foundation – but also deliver early tests of Chelsea's mettle.

We leverage Elo-based difficulty ratings, head-to-head records, squad valuations, and recent form to preview Chelsea's first five WSL matches in detail.

To quantify fixture difficulty, we use a star rating (★☆☆☆☆ easiest to ★★★★★ hardest) based on Elo-derived win probability from Chelsea's perspective.

The table below summarises the first five matches, with win/draw/loss odds and star ratings:

Opening Outlook

On paper, Chelsea are favourites in all five games. The three lower-rated fixtures (Aston Villa, Leicester, West Ham) should yield maximum points, while even the two marquee ties against the Manchester clubs lean slightly in their favour. The average win probability is around 68%, with no fixture rated harder than ★☆☆☆☆ — a highly favourable slate for the champions.

Fixture Breakdown

GW1: vs Manchester City (Home) – September 5

Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 63%

Analysis

• Chelsea open their title defence with a heavyweight clash against Manchester City. City finished a disappointing 4th last season—missing out on the Champions League and ending trophyless—but closed strongly, going unbeaten in their final five WSL matches. They'll be eager to rebound.

• These sides have forged one of the WSL's most intense rivalries, with high-stakes clashes across league, cup, and European competition. While the fixtures are often fiercely contested, recent results show Chelsea with a clear upper hand — especially at home.

• The Blues have won each of their last three home games against City, including a dominant 3–0 win in the UEFA Champions League and a 2–0 league victory in November 2024.

• Squad-wise, Chelsea remain the WSL’s most valuable side (~€11.7m), with City’s €7.2m squad still elite but notably leaner. That gulf in depth plays into Chelsea’s hands, especially at home.

• City's attacking talent makes them one of the few sides capable of troubling Chelsea, but the Blues will be eager to start strong. They won both league meetings last season, and another positive result here would reinforce their dominance.

Prediction: Chelsea should win, though it may be tight. A draw wouldn’t be a disaster—but anything less than three points at home would feel like a missed opportunity.

GW2: @ Aston Villa (Away) – September 14

Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 70%

Analysis

• Chelsea’s second outing sees them travel to face Aston Villa, who finished 6th last season. On paper, it’s a fixture the champions are expected to win, but Villa’s end-of-season form makes them a potential threat. They won their final five games, including a stunning 5–2 victory over Arsenal, climbing from a relegation scrap to mid-table safety.

• Historically, Chelsea have dominated this matchup. Since Villa’s promotion, the Blues have never dropped a point in league play, and they won both meetings last season 1-0, for a 2-0 aggregate.

• The squad value gulf is stark: Villa’s roster is worth just ~€1.54m, less than one-seventh of Chelsea’s €11.7m side. That disparity underscores Chelsea’s depth and experience, particularly if they field a near full-strength XI.

• One variable is rotation. Coming off a marquee opener, Bompastor may rest key players. But Villa away isn’t a fixture to take lightly—especially with their recent momentum and attacking threats.

Prediction: Chelsea’s depth should see them through, though Villa could test them early. A two-goal win feels realistic; anything less would be an early blemish in the title defence.

GW3: vs Leicester City (Home) – September 21

Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 80%

Analysis

• This is the most straightforward fixture of Chelsea’s opening five. Leicester finished 10th last season with 20 points. They struggled for goals throughout 2024–25, hampered by injuries and a lack of attacking threat, and remain one of the league’s smallest sides in terms of quality and resources.

• Since Leicester’s promotion in 2021, the Foxes have earned just one WSL point against Chelsea—a 1-1 draw at King Power on 14 December 2024—and they have endured four defeats of six goals or more (9-0, 8-0, 7-0, 6-0).

• The talent gap is massive: Chelsea’s squad (€11.7m) is valued at over 14 times that of Leicester (€0.86m). The Blues' bench could arguably start for the Foxes, highlighting the gulf in depth.

• Barring complacency, Chelsea should control the game and may use this as a chance to rotate. Leicester will likely sit deep and look to frustrate, but they’ll struggle to contain Chelsea’s attacking firepower.

Prediction: An easy Chelsea win is expected—likely by multiple goals. Anything less would be a major shock.

GW4: @ West Ham United (Away) – September 28

Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 73%

Analysis

• Chelsea’s second London derby takes them across the capital to face West Ham, who finished 9th last season. On paper, this should be another routine win. Chelsea have historically dominated this fixture, winning all but one of the last ten meetings—often by big margins, including 7–0 and 5–0 victories.

• That said, the Hammers did frustrate Chelsea late last season, holding them to a 2–2 draw at Kingsmeadow via a stoppage-time equaliser—one of only three games Chelsea didn’t win in 2024–25.

• Their squad value (~€1.54m) pales in comparison to Chelsea’s €11.7m, highlighting the gulf in quality. West Ham’s late-season form was patchy (1 win in 5), and consistency remains an issue.

• Chelsea must avoid looking ahead to the Man United clash that follows. An early goal would help settle nerves at Dagenham, where the home crowd could lift West Ham into a defensive stand.

Prediction: Chelsea should win, but it may be tighter than previous routs—especially if rotation is in play. Dropping points again would be a misstep.

GW5: @ Manchester United (Away) – October 4

Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 55%

Analysis

• Chelsea’s toughest early test comes away at Manchester United, last season’s 3rd-place finishers. United will be eager to prove themselves against the champions, especially after narrowly missing out on 2nd place to Arsenal on the final day. These sides were top-two contenders for much of last season, and United remain one of Chelsea’s main rivals.

• Recent meetings have still favoured Chelsea: they have won four of the last five clashes (W4 L1), highlighted by a 3-0 FA Cup-final triumph in May 2025 and a title-sealing 1-0 league win at Leigh Sports Village four days earlier.

• Leigh Sports Village is a tough venue, and United will see this as a chance to make an early title statement. They ended last season poorly (no wins in their final five), so motivation will be high to reset and respond.

• Squad-wise, United’s roster (€6.0m) is strong—but Chelsea’s depth (€11.7m) and big-game experience give them the edge. Chelsea’s players are seasoned in title runs and high-stakes matches, while United are still growing into that role.

Prediction: A draw would be a solid result for Chelsea, denying United momentum. But they’ll back themselves to edge it. A narrow 2–1 Chelsea win looks most likely. Avoiding defeat is key, while victory would send an early message.

Key Strategic Considerations

Travel Burden

• Chelsea play three of their first five matches away from home, but the travel is well spaced. Only two are outside London: a 180 km trip to Aston Villa in the Midlands and a longer 330 km journey to Manchester United in GW5. Unlike Arsenal’s consecutive northern fixtures, Chelsea’s toughest trip comes after a home game and a short London derby.

• While roughly 500 km of travel in the opening month isn’t ideal, the schedule helps reduce fatigue risk. Effective rotation and recovery management will be crucial, but Chelsea’s deep squad puts them in a strong position to handle the early mileage.

Title Race Implications

• Two of Chelsea’s five openers are direct clashes with title rivals—Manchester City and Manchester United. City visit Kingsmeadow on opening day, while United host Chelsea in GW5. These fixtures could shape the tone of the title race early on.

• Dropping points in either could dent Chelsea’s aura and energize chasing teams like Arsenal. But coming through unbeaten—or taking 4 to 6 points—would reinforce their dominance and apply immediate pressure on rivals. As defending champions, Chelsea set the standard. Early results in these marquee matchups could either tighten the race or widen the gap before it’s fully underway.

Squad Management

• Sonia Bompastor will need to balance rotation carefully across this opening stretch. The three lower-rated fixtures (Villa, Leicester, West Ham) offer opportunities to rest key players and integrate new signings or academy talent, preserving energy for the marquee clashes. With the league’s most valuable and arguably deepest squad, Chelsea can rotate without sacrificing quality—replacing one international with another.

• This flexibility is especially important following the summer’s UEFA Women’s Euro 2025, where many Chelsea players featured heavily. Managing post-Euro fatigue and minor knocks will be key. GW3 vs Leicester, nestled between two away trips, looks ideal for rotation, as does West Ham before the United game. Chelsea’s depth gives them a clear advantage in navigating this early congested run.

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Expected Points and Predictions

Based on difficulty ratings and win probabilities, a realistic outcome for Chelsea’s first five games is four wins and one draw:

• Wins (4): Man City, @Aston Villa, Leicester City, @West Ham – 12 points

• Draw (1): @Manchester United – 1 point

• Losses (0): – 0 points

• Total: 13 points

That would be an excellent return—keeping Chelsea top or close to it and extending their unbeaten league run. It assumes they handle the fixtures where they’re clear favourites and avoid defeat in their toughest test.

Anything above 13 (e.g. a perfect 15/15) would be a statement of dominance. But anything below 11 points—especially dropped points against Villa, Leicester, or West Ham—would raise early questions and give rivals encouragement.

Conclusion

Chelsea’s opening run blends three highly winnable fixtures with two early tests against major rivals. To set the pace in their title defence, the Blues must capitalise on matches against Villa, Leicester, and West Ham, while aiming to avoid setbacks against City and United. Emerging with 12–13 points and an unbeaten record would be a strong start.

These early weeks will test Chelsea’s focus, rotation strategy, and ability to handle pressure. The travel is manageable, but the psychological weight of marquee clashes raises the stakes. A dominant start—especially wins over City or United—would reaffirm their status as title favourites. Anything below 11 points, however, could signal vulnerability and breathe life into the chasing pack.

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Key Dates to Watch

📅 September 5 – vs Manchester City: A heavyweight opening-night clash against a fellow contender.
📅 October 4 – @ Manchester United: A potential early six-pointer with long-term title implications.

Chelsea’s ability to dispatch the teams they should beat while holding their nerve in the big fixtures will shape the early title narrative. If they pass these tests, the rest of the league may once again be left chasing shadows.

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Data & Model

Win probabilities are derived from an in-house Elo-based model (updated Aug 5, 2025). Recent form, head-to-head stats and baseline team metrics are taken from FBref, and squad market values use Soccerdonna's 21 Jul 2025 estimates.

This analysis is part of our comprehensive WSL Season Preview series. Next up: Manchester United's opening fixtures as Marc Skinner's side look to build on their Champions League qualification and mount the sustained title challenge they've been promising.

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