Brighton WSL 2025-26 Opening Five Fixtures: Balancing Opportunity and Challenge
Brighton face a mixed start to the new WSL campaign, with three home games offering winnable opportunities but also a daunting early trip to title contenders Manchester City. Analysis with predictions
Introduction
Brighton’s 2025–26 Women’s Super League campaign begins on the back of a club-record 5th-place finish in the 2024–25 season, during which they earned 28 points (8 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses). The Seagulls will be aiming to consolidate their top-half status – and perhaps even push the traditional powers further.
Their opening five fixtures present a blend of opportunities and challenges: three games are against sides that finished below Brighton in 2024–25 (offering a chance to bank early points), while two are tricky away tests – a trip to a powerhouse and a visit to an unpredictable Tottenham.
We leverage Elo-based difficulty ratings, head-to-head records, squad valuations, and recent form to preview Brighton's first five WSL matches in detail.
To quantify fixture difficulty, we use a star rating (★☆☆☆☆ easiest to ★★★★★ hardest) based on an Elo-derived win probability from Brighton's perspective.
The table below summarises the first five matches, with win/draw/loss odds and star ratings:
Opening Outlook
On paper, Brighton should win the two favourable home fixtures (West Ham and Everton) and target points from the balanced contests (Villa at home, Tottenham away), but the trip to Manchester City will be their toughest test.
The average win probability across these five games is roughly 41%, reflecting a moderate slate with three winnable games and one heavy underdog scenario.
Fixture Breakdown
GW1: vs Aston Villa (Home) – September 7
Difficulty Rating: ★★★☆☆
Win Probability: 46%
Analysis
Brighton open the 2025–26 WSL season against Aston Villa, who finished 6th last season. The sides split their league meetings in 2024–25 — Brighton won 4–2 at home in October, while Villa won 3–1 at home in May.
Villa also knocked Brighton out of the FA Cup 3–2 last season, and overall they’ve had the upper hand in recent years (6 wins in the last 10 head-to-heads) with Brighton having only 2 wins.
Villa finished strongly, winning their final five games including a stunning 5–2 upset of Arsenal, while Brighton stumbled late (losing their last two).
Squad values: Brighton €1.78m vs Villa €1.65m – Brighton hold a slight edge talent-wise on paper.
Villa's late-season momentum is concerning, but Brighton's home advantage should level things. With tougher tests looming, the Seagulls need to capitalise on this one.
Prediction: A competitive match that could go either way. Brighton will target victory at home, but a draw wouldn't be disastrous against a direct rival.
GW2: @ Manchester City (Away) – September 12
Difficulty Rating: ★★★★★
Win Probability: 18%
Analysis
Brighton face their toughest fixture of the season at Manchester City. City finished 4th last season and are one of the league's heavyweights, making this a massive underdog scenario for the Seagulls.
The gulf in quality is stark – City's squad (€7.2m) is over four times Brighton's value.
History also heavily favours Manchester City: Brighton have lost four of the last five meetings, with their only victory a 1–0 away win in November 2023.
For Brighton, this is a free hit with no pressure. Defensive organisation will be key, and avoiding heavy defeat would be a positive result.
Prediction: Comfortable City win expected. Anything Brighton get here would be a bonus.
GW3: vs West Ham United (Home) – September 21
Difficulty Rating: ★★☆☆☆
Win Probability: 52%
Analysis
Back home against West Ham – a must-win fixture for Brighton. West Ham finished 9th last season and ended poorly, managing just one win in their final five games.
The recent head-to-head record is even: across the last five meetings in all competitions, Brighton has 2W-2D-1L. Brighton, however, have typically fared better at home in this matchup, winning three of their last four at home.
Squad values: Brighton €1.78m vs West Ham €1.54m – Brighton hold a slight edge talent-wise at least on paper.
Brighton won the corresponding home fixture 3–2 last November, showcasing their attacking potential. West Ham can be stubborn defensively but are prone to lapses.
Prediction: Brighton should edge it at home, but West Ham won't make it easy.
GW4: vs Everton (Home) – September 28
Difficulty Rating: ★★☆☆☆
Win Probability: 55%
Analysis
Brighton’s second consecutive home game brings Everton to the Amex. Everton finished 8th last season with 24 points — four behind Brighton — and were inconsistent down the stretch.
The Seagulls dominated both meetings in 2024–25, winning 4–0 at home and 3–2 away, although Everton did upset them 2–1 in April 2024. Across the last five WSL encounters, Brighton hold a 3–2 edge.
Squad values: Brighton €1.78m vs Everton €1.51m – a small but clear advantage for Brighton. Advanced numbers further highlight the gap: Brighton’s xGD last season was –7.7, while Everton’s –18.7 was second worst in the league.
Although Everton’s defence conceded fewer than expected goals last season(32 vs 38 xGA), the underlying fragility suggests Brighton should view this as a must-win if they want to consolidate top-half ambitions.
Prediction: Brighton should take care of business at home.
GW5: @ Tottenham Hotspur (Away) – October 5
Difficulty Rating: ★★★☆☆
Win Probability: 37%
Analysis
Brighton's final fixture takes them to north London against Tottenham.
Spurs ended 11th last season with 20 points but are a wild card: their €2.40m squad is slightly more valuable than Brighton’s €1.78m. New investments and a coaching change could lift them beyond their 2024–25 level.
Historically, Spurs have had the edge (5 wins from the last 10), but recent form is more encouraging for Brighton: they’re unbeaten in four of the last five against Tottenham, including a 1–0 away victory in March 2025.
Spurs’ defence was among the weakest in the league last year (44 goals conceded), leaving space for Brighton to exploit if they can carry their attacking form into the final fixture.
This is essentially a toss-up (37% Brighton, 44% Spurs) between direct mid-table competitors. A draw wouldn't be a bad result away from home, but an away win would be hugely valuable for both table position and confidence heading into tougher fixtures.
Prediction: A tight, cagey affair. Brighton's recent positive record against Spurs gives them hope, but either side could edge it.
Key Strategic Considerations
Travel and Scheduling
Brighton's travel burden is manageable with three home games in the opening five. The longest trip is to Manchester (400km) for the City match, but it's followed by a full week's recovery. The Tottenham away game is a short hop to London. The consistent weekly rhythm (September 7 to October 5) should help maintain good training and recovery cycles.
Expected Points and Predictions
Based on difficulty ratings and win probabilities, a realistic outcome for Brighton's opening five games would be: two wins (vs West Ham, vs Everton), two draws (vs Aston Villa, @ Tottenham), and one loss (@ Manchester City).
Wins (2): West Ham, Everton – 6 points
Draws (2): Aston Villa, Tottenham – 2 points
Losses (1): Manchester City – 0 points
Total: 8 points from 5 matches
This would represent a solid start for Brighton (1.6 points per game), likely keeping them in the upper half early on. Anything above 9 points would be excellent and potentially put them near the Champions League places. Conversely, less than 6 points would be concerning, especially if they drop points in the favoured home fixtures against West Ham or Everton.
Conclusion
Brighton's opening five games offer a crucial chance to build momentum before facing the league's elite. With three home fixtures and none of the Big Three (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United) yet to come, the Seagulls must capitalise on this relatively favourable start.
The home games against West Ham and Everton are must-wins, while the Villa opener and Tottenham trip represent winnable contests against direct rivals. The City away game is a free hit with no pressure. If Brighton can secure around 8-9 points from this run, they'll be well-positioned for another strong campaign. Any slips against teams they should beat, however, could leave them playing catch-up early on.
Key Dates to Watch
📅 September 12 – @ Manchester City: A free hit against title contenders with no pressure.
📅 September 21 – vs West Ham: First must-win home fixture to build momentum.
📅 October 5 – @ Tottenham: Potential six-pointer with direct mid-table rivals.
Data & Model
Win probabilities are from our in-house three-outcome Elo model (updated 15 Aug 2025). Recent form, head-to-head stats, and other baseline figures are sourced from last season's data (via FBref). Squad market values are taken from Soccerdonna's valuations as of 18 Aug 2025).
This analysis is part of our comprehensive WSL Season Preview series. If you found this breakdown valuable, please consider subscribing and sharing it and join the conversation on X (@WSLAnalytics).