Aston Villa vs. Chelsea | Match Preview | WSL Week 13
In this in-depth preview, we break down the key stats, tactical trends, and data-driven insights to reveal how Aston Villa and Chelsea match up in this week's WSL showdown.
📅 Date & Time: Sunday, February 2, 2025 | 2:30 PM (GMT)
🏟 Venue: Villa Park
1. Overview 🔍
Aston Villa hosts league leaders Chelsea at Villa Park in what promises to be a stern test for the home side. Chelsea, unbeaten this season across all competitions, continues to showcase both attacking brilliance—averaging nearly three goals per game—and defensive solidity, having scored in every match they’ve played. By contrast, Aston Villa’s form has been erratic, especially on the road, though they’ve shown flashes of competitiveness at home.
With Chelsea holding a perfect 9–0 record against Villa, the big question is whether Aston Villa’s top scorer Rachel Daly can reignite the attack and inspire an upset. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s potent forward line—including the returning Lauren James—aims to maintain the momentum and extend their title push.
2. Current League Standings & Recent Form ⚽️
Chelsea
League Position: 1st
Points: 34 (from 12 matches)
Last 5 WSL Matches: 4 Wins, 1 Draw, 0 Losses
Goals Scored/Conceded (Last 5 Matches): 13 scored | 3 conceded
Home Record: 6W-0D-0L (11 scored, 2 conceded)
Away Record: 5W-1D-0L (26 scored, 4 conceded)
Key Trend: Dominant on the road, netting an average of 4.33 goals per away match.
Across all competitions, Chelsea has remained unbeaten, scoring in every game and maintaining an impressive defensive record.
Aston Villa
League Position: 9th
Points: 10 (from 12 matches)
Last 5 WSL Matches: 1 Win, 1 Draw, 3 Losses
Goals Scored/Conceded (Last 5 Matches): 8 scored | 12 conceded
Home Record: 2W-2D-2L (11 scored, 11 conceded)
Away Record: 0W-2D-4L (4 scored, 12 conceded)
Key Trend: Winless away from home, conceding an average of 2 goals per match.
In their last outing, Villa conceded four goals against Manchester City. Despite scoring early, they struggled to maintain possession and had limited influence from star striker Rachel Daly.
3. Head-to-Head Record 🤝
Total Matches Played: 9
Chelsea Wins: 9
Aston Villa Wins: 0
Draws: 0
Goal Difference: Chelsea 24 – 1 Aston Villa
Last 5 Meetings:
2024-09-20 | Chelsea 1–0 Aston Villa (xG: 1.1 – 0.9)
2024-04-17 | Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa (xG: 2.7 – 0.2)
2023-11-04 | Aston Villa 0–6 Chelsea (xG: 0.7 – 5.4)
2023-04-02 | Aston Villa 0–3 Chelsea (xG: 1.3 – 2.2)
2022-10-30 | Chelsea 3–1 Aston Villa (xG: 1.7 – 0.6)
Key Trends:
Chelsea has won every encounter, outscoring Villa 16–1 in the last five.
Although the most recent match was close (1–0), Chelsea generally dominates this fixture.
4. Key Players & Statistical Profiles 🌟
Chelsea
Guro Reiten (FW/MF)
Goals: 7 | xG: 4.9 (+2.1 overperformance)
Key Passes: 26
Style: A creative winger with a keen eye for goal and excellent playmaking instincts.
Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (FW/MF)
Goals: 4 | Shot-Creation Actions: 41
Dribbles: 44 take-ons, 64 progressive carries
Style: A dynamic dribbler who excels at unlocking defenses from wide areas.
Millie Bright (DF)
Tackles + Interceptions: 40
Aerial Duels Won: 33 (66%)
Style: Defensive leader—dominant in the air and adept at halting opposition transitions.
Lauren James (FW)
Returning from a long injury spell (October–January), James has previously found success at Villa Park. Her ability to drive at defenses and score key goals could be vital.
Aston Villa
Rachel Daly (FW)
Goals: 5 | Shot Accuracy: 36%
Progressive Passes: 44
Style: Primary goal threat; physical, aerially strong, and essential to Villa’s hopes.
Jordan Nobbs (MF)
Key Passes: 15 | Progressive Passes: 55
Style: A creative engine in midfield, capable of incisive through balls and effective in transitions.
Paula Tomás (DF)
Tackles: 29 | Interceptions: 17
Style: Villa’s most dependable defender, crucial to containing Chelsea’s attacking wingers.
5. Tactical Breakdown 🎯
Chelsea’s Approach
Formation: Likely 4–3–3
Possession: ~57.3% average, comfortable dictating tempo.
Defensive Shape: High press, strong in winning second balls.
Key Tactical Element: Utilising width and overloads, particularly with Reiten and Kaneryd, to unsettle Villa’s defence.
Aston Villa’s Approach
Formation: Likely 4–2–3–1
Possession: ~50%, but numbers drop against top teams.
Defensive Shape: Generally compact, but vulnerable to persistent wide threats.
Key Tactical Element: Rely on Daly’s hold-up play to bring midfielders like Nobbs into attacking positions. However, Villa’s struggles against high-pressing sides—evident in the loss to Manchester City—could be a critical weakness Chelsea targets.
Note: Villa showed they can strike early (as seen by Grant’s 6th-minute goal vs. Man City), which could be decisive in gaining momentum.
6. Statistical Matchups 📊
Metric: Possession %
Chelsea: 57.3%
Aston Villa: 50.2%
Metric: Passing Accuracy %
Chelsea: 81.5%
Aston Villa: 83.4%
Metric: Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea: 28.0
Aston Villa: 14.8
Metric: Goals Conceded per Match
Chelsea: 0.5
Aston Villa: 1.92
Metric: Shots on Target per Match
Chelsea: 7.3
Aston Villa: 3.9
Key Insights:
Chelsea’s superior xG and consistent goal-scoring highlight their attacking dominance.
Villa concedes nearly two goals per match, a worrying sign against a Chelsea team averaging three goals per game in all competitions.
7. Manager Context 🎓
Aston Villa’s transition is highlighted by the incoming manager, Natalia Arroyo, who observed the recent performance against Manchester City from the stands. While the new approach may not be fully implemented yet, Villa could begin to show glimpses of Arroyo’s tactical preferences. Any early adjustments might aim to improve Villa’s defensive structure and ball retention under high pressure—two areas that were exposed in the loss to Manchester City.
8. Potential Game-Changers ⚡️
Substitutions & Impact Players: Chelsea’s bench depth includes talents like Agnes Beever-Jones, who has five goals in just over five full-match equivalents. Her introduction could maintain attacking momentum or break a deadlock.
Set-Piece Threats: Chelsea has scored only six goals from set-pieces this season, indicating a potential area for improvement. Villa, meanwhile, must focus on defending dead-ball situations to avoid cheap concessions.
In-Game Adjustments: If Chelsea dominates wide areas early, Villa may need to alter their shape—potentially adding an extra midfielder or shifting to a back five.
9. Prediction & Key Details 🔮
Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa
Reasons:
Chelsea’s perfect record against Villa (9–0 overall).
Villa’s defensive frailties—23 goals conceded so far—versus a Chelsea attack averaging three goals per game in all competitions.
Chelsea’s lethal away form (4.33 goals per away match in the WSL).
Uncertainty at Villa due to managerial transition; they may need time to adjust to new tactics.
10. Conclusion & Key Takeaways 🏁
Expect an Organized, Unrelenting Chelsea: Their high press, efficient wing play, and strong defense will likely dictate proceedings.
Villa’s Early Goal Threat: If Villa can strike early again, they might gain much-needed confidence. However, they must improve ball retention and defensive shape to stand a chance.
Rachel Daly’s Role: After a subdued performance against Manchester City, Daly’s involvement is crucial for Villa to sustain attacks and test Chelsea’s back line.
Managerial Transition Watch: Natalia Arroyo’s influence may not be fully evident yet, but this match could provide initial hints of how Villa might evolve tactically.
Final Verdict: Chelsea’s unwavering form and historical dominance make them favourites to extend their unbeaten run, though Villa’s potential early goal threat remains a wildcard to watch.