Arsenal WSL 2025-26 Opening Five Fixtures: A Season-Defining Start
The Gunners face a challenging opening sequence with back-to-back Manchester trips, three must-win fixtures, and crucial early tests against title rivals. Complete analysis with predictions.
Introduction
Arsenal's 2025–26 Women's Super League campaign begins with a blend of opportunity and adversity. As last season's runners-up (48 points), the Gunners are eager to close the gap on champions Chelsea. Their opening five fixtures (three against perceived weaker sides, two against fellow top-four contenders) present a chance to build momentum – but also stern early examinations of title credentials.
We leverage Elo-based difficulty ratings, head-to-head records, squad valuations, and recent form to preview Arsenal's first five WSL matches in detail.
To quantify fixture difficulty, we use a star rating (★☆☆☆☆ easiest to ★★★★★ hardest) based on Elo-derived win probability from Arsenal's perspective.
The table below summarises the first five matches, with win/draw/loss odds and star ratings:
Opening Outlook
On paper, Arsenal should win the three lower-rated fixtures (London City, West Ham, Aston Villa) and target at least one positive result from the two Manchester trips. The average win probability in these five games is about 62%, reflecting a mostly favorable slate with one notably balanced contest (away at Man City).
Fixture Breakdown
GW1: vs London City Lionesses (Home) - September 6
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 74%
Analysis
Arsenal's season opener against newly-promoted London City Lionesses represents the perfect soft launch. London City are making their WSL debut after winning the Championship last season. It's also the first ever top-flight meeting between the clubs – though they have met in cups, where Arsenal have won all five past encounters (aggregate 16–0).
The gulf in quality is stark: Arsenal's squad is valued near €9.9 m (£8.4 m), almost ten times London City’s €1.0 m (£0.85 m).
Despite London City's aggressive recruitment of experienced internationals like Saki Kumagai, Kosovare Asllani, and Daniëlle van de Donk to bolster their lineup, the visitors remain heavy underdogs.
Arsenal's form at the end of last season was strong – they lifted the Champions League and won 4-3 in their final WSL match – whereas London City, though unbeaten in their last 5 Championship games (3W 2D) to clinch promotion, face a massive step up in competition.
Barring complacency, Arsenal should secure a comfortable victory at home. Anything less than three points would be a genuine shock.
GW2: @ West Ham United (Away) - September 14
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 67%
Analysis
A short trip across London to face West Ham (9th place last season) should yield another routine win for Arsenal. Arsenal have historically dominated this derby – in the last five meetings Arsenal have 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat (West Ham's lone victory came 2–1 in Feb 2024).
The Hammers' squad market value €1.54 m (£1.31 m) is a fraction of Arsenal's, reflecting the talent gap. That said, West Ham can be stubborn at home and did take points off top teams late last season (e.g. a 2–2 draw at Chelsea in March).
Their recent form to end 2024–25 was patchy – they have just one win in the final five league games (1W 2D 2L), including a 0–0 draw with Man United and losses to Aston Villa (2–3) and Leicester (2–4).
Arsenal's quality should shine through despite the away setting. Provided they approach with focus, anything less than three points would be a surprise in this matchup.
GW3: @ Manchester United (Away) - September 21
Difficulty Rating: ★★☆☆☆
Win Probability: 48%
Analysis
This is the first major test of the season. Manchester United finished 3rd last year, just behind Arsenal, and remain one of Arsenal's primary title rivals. Matches between these sides have been tight – the last five meetings saw Arsenal win 2, draw 2, and lose 1, including a 1–1 draw at Leigh Sports Village early last season and a 4–3 Arsenal home win on the final day.
Playing away at United's Leigh Sports Village is always challenging, and United will be motivated having pipped Man City to the final Champions League spot in 2024–25.
United's form to end last season was shaky (no wins in their final five competitive matches, including a 0–3 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea), but they boast a strong squad (€6.0m (£5.1m) value, 4th-highest) and looking to strengthen over the summer.
Arsenal will likely face a fired-up United eager to set an early marker. This fixture could set an early tone in the title race, and a draw away would not be a bad result for the Gunners. A win, however, would send a statement. Expect a closely contested match that could go either way.
GW4: vs Aston Villa (Home) - September 27
Difficulty Rating: ★☆☆☆☆
Win Probability: 70%
Analysis
Aston Villa (6th last season) present a tricky but manageable challenge for Arsenal. Notably, Villa shocked Arsenal 5-2 in the penultimate game of last season – a wake-up call that Arsenal cannot take them lightly.
Overall, however, Arsenal have dominated Villa, winning 8 of the last 10 competitive meetings between the sides.
Back on home soil (the club is expected to use the Emirates Stadium for increased capacity), Arsenal should have enough quality to secure three points.
Villa's squad value (~€1.54m (£1.31m)) is modest and roughly one-sixth of Arsenal's, but they are well capable of upsetting bigger teams if given chances.
Villa ended last season in brilliant form – winning five league games in a row, including that big win over Arsenal. Arsenal will need to stay focused defensively, but if they play to their normal level, a win is the likely outcome. Dropping points here, after last year's stumble, would be a disappointment.
GW5: @ Manchester City (Away) - October 3
Difficulty Rating: ★★★☆☆
Win Probability: 36%
Analysis
The second major early-season test. Manchester City (4th last season) at the Joie Stadium is arguably the toughest fixture of Arsenal's opening five.
These two sides are traditionally very evenly matched. In the last five clashes though, Arsenal have had a slight edge (W2 D2 L1), but away to City is always challenging.
Both clubs will likely be direct competitors for Champions League qualification and have comparably strong squads (City's valued €7.2m (£6.1m) vs Arsenal's €9.9 m (£8.4 m).
City finished the previous league campaign strongly (unbeaten in their final 5 WSL games) and will have home support.
For Arsenal, avoiding defeat here would be a solid result – a draw keeps them on track, while a win would be an early season statement.
This matchup could well be an early six-pointer in the race for the top three. Expect a tactical battle with fine margins; a balanced contest that could swing either way.
Key Strategic Considerations
Travel Burden
Arsenal face a particularly challenging travel schedule with 3 away games in their opening 5 fixtures. Most concerning is the double Manchester journey - facing United away in GW3 and City away in GW5, with only one home game (Villa) sandwiched between. These back-to-back northern trips covering approximately 330km each way could impact squad freshness and rotation options.
Title Race Implications
Two of these five matches are early showdowns against top-four rivals (Man United and Man City). The GW3 visit to United is a meeting of last season's 2nd vs 3rd – essentially an early six-pointer. The GW5 clash at City pits two Champions League hopefuls head-to-head.
Dropped points in these could immediately put Arsenal on the back foot in the title race, so there's added pressure to at least draw those games. Conversely, a win in either would give Arsenal a psychological and table advantage over a rival.
Squad Management
Renee Slegers will need to carefully manage her squad through this opening period. The relatively straightforward fixtures against London City and West Ham provide opportunities to integrate new arrivals and test rotation if needed, ensuring key starters are fresh for the Manchester double-headers.
This is even more crucial considering the minutes logged by the Arsenal contingents in the recently concluded Women’s Euro 2025 where majority went onto the later stages.
Arsenal's squad is not only the second-most valuable in the league but also one of the deepest in quality. This depth will be an asset in navigating the compressed early schedule.
Expected Points and Predictions
Using the difficulty ratings and probabilities above, a plausible outcome for Arsenal's opening five games would be: three wins (vs London City, @ West Ham, vs Aston Villa), one draw (from the two Manchester away games), and one defeat(in the other Manchester game).
Wins (3): London City, West Ham, Aston Villa – 9 points
Draws (1): either Man United or Man City – 1 point
Losses (1): the remaining Manchester fixture – 0 points
This scenario yields ~10 points from 5 matches. That would represent a solid start – keeping Arsenal in touch with the top of the table while building confidence.
Anything above 10 points (e.g. winning one of the big away games to reach 12+ points) would be an excellent outcome and likely see Arsenal at or near the league summit. Conversely, anything less than 9 points would be concerning given the three fixtures Arsenal are heavily favored to win.
Conclusion
Arsenal's opening sequence is a tale of two halves - three very winnable fixtures interspersed with two genuine title race examinations. The Gunners must take maximum points from London City, West Ham, and Villa while avoiding defeat in both Manchester games to maintain their championship aspirations.
The travel demands and early pressure will test squad depth, but if Arsenal can navigate this period with 10+ points, they'll have laid a strong foundation for another title challenge. Anything less than 9 points would represent a concerning start given the fixture mix.
Key Dates to Watch
September 21: @ Manchester United (first title race test)
October 3: @ Manchester City (early season statement game)
Arsenal's title ambitions may well be shaped by how they handle these opening five weeks - particularly their ability to stay competitive in the big games while taking care of business against supposedly weaker opponents.
Data & model
Win probabilities come from our in‑house, three‑outcome Elo model (updated 1 Aug 2025). Recent‑form, head‑to‑head and baseline stats are from FBref, while squad market values use Soccerdonna’s 21 Jul 2025 valuations. Draws are explicitly modelled at 15–27 %.
This analysis is part of our comprehensive WSL Season Preview series. Next up: Chelsea’s opening fixtures as the defending champions look to maintain their dominance. Subscribe to avoid missing our full breakdown of every WSL club’s start to 2025–26.