Arsenal vs. Tottenham | Match Preview | WSL Week 14

In this in-depth preview, we break down the key stats, tactical trends, and data-driven insights to reveal how Arsenal and Tottenham match up in this week's WSL showdown.

📅 Date: Sunday, 16 February 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 12:30 PM (UK)
📍 Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

🔍 Match Context & Overview

The North London Derby returns this weekend with third-placed Arsenal hosting Tottenham Hotspur in what promises to be a fascinating WSL encounter. The Gunners enter this fixture coming off a thrilling 4-3 victory over Manchester City in the league, though they've since experienced mixed fortunes—falling 2-1 to City in the Subway Cup semi-final before bouncing back with a confident 2-0 win against London City Lionesses in the Adobe FA Cup.

For Tottenham, the challenge of competing with the league's elite continues to prove daunting. Their recent 1-0 home defeat to Manchester United highlights a persistent struggle against top opposition, with just two victories in their last 41 matches against the current top four.

📊 Current Form

Arsenal (3rd Place)

• Points: 27 from 13 matches

• Goal Record: 29 scored, 9 conceded

• Recent Form: WWWLW (Last 5 WSL matches)

• Home Record: 3W, 2D, 1L (17 scored, 4 conceded)

Key Strength: Lightning-fast starts—multiple goals within the opening fifteen minutes recently

Tottenham (6th Place)

• Points: 17 from 13 matches

• Goal Record: 19 scored, 26 conceded

• Recent Form: WDWWL (Last 5 WSL matches)

• Away Record: 1W, 2D, 3L (8 scored, 17 conceded)

Notable Trend: 50% of goals scored in final 15 minutes

🏆 Head-to-Head Record

• Last 10 Meetings: Arsenal 8W, Tottenham 1W, 1 Draw

• Goal Difference: +24 Arsenal

Recent Meetings & xG

• 2024-11-16: Tottenham 0-3 Arsenal (xG: 0.1 - 1.9)

• 2024-03-03: Arsenal 1-0 Tottenham (xG: 1.3 - 0.3)

• 2023-12-16: Tottenham 1-0 Arsenal (xG: 0.4 - 2.5)

• 2023-03-25: Tottenham 1-5 Arsenal (xG: 1.0 - 3.0)

• 2022-09-24: Arsenal 4-0 Tottenham (xG: 1.5 - 0.2)

💡 Key Insight: Even in Tottenham’s only win (1-0), Arsenal's xG was 2.5 compared to Spurs' 0.4—suggesting the Gunners consistently create higher-quality chances in this fixture.

🌟 Key Players to Watch

Arsenal's Attacking Trident

Caitlin Foord | The Derby Specialist

• 7 goals in North London Derby history

• Direct, aggressive winger who thrives in transition

• One goal away from matching Vivianne Miedema's derby record

Alessia Russo | The Complete Forward

• Team’s leading scorer with 7 goals, 2 assists and 5.3 xG

• Exceptional movement and link-up play

• Key to breaking down deep defensive blocks

Mariona Caldentey | The Creative Engine

• 4 assists in last 6 games

• 2.1 key passes per 90 minutes

• Master of finding space between the lines

Tottenham's Key Performers

Bethany England | The Clinical Finisher

• Team’s leading scorer with 7 goals, 1 assists and 5.7 xG

• Thrives on quick transitions

• Expert at exploiting high defensive lines

Ashleigh Neville | The Defensive Rock

• Averages 2 interceptions and 5 tackles per game

• Versatile defender with excellent reading of the game

• Critical in containing Arsenal's wide threats

Eveliina Summanen | The Midfield General

• 76% pass completion rate

• 2 goals, 2 assists this season

• Will be key to breaking Arsenal's aggressive press

📈 Statistical Comparison

Arsenal vs Tottenham

• Possession: 58.8% vs 50.1%

• Passing Accuracy: 83.7% vs 79.1%

• Expected Goals: 26.9 vs 15.7

• Goals per Match: 2.23 vs 1.23

• Goals Conceded per Match: 0.69 vs 2.00

• Shots on Target per Match: 5.31 vs 4.62

What This Tells Us:

• Arsenal outperforms Spurs in nearly all key metrics.

• Tottenham’s defense (2.00 GA per match) faces a stiff challenge against an Arsenal side averaging over two goals per game.

• Possession numbers point to Arsenal likely controlling tempo, forcing Spurs to lean on counterattacks.

📊 Tactical Breakdown

🔴 Arsenal’s Approach

• Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Style: Possession-heavy (58.8%), high press, overlapping full-backs.

• Key Strengths:

  • Elite shot creation (15.3 shots per 90)

  • High passing accuracy (83.7%)

  • Aggressive in the opening 15 minutes

⚪ Tottenham’s Approach

• Formation: 4-3-3

• Style: More direct (50.1% possession), counter-attacking.

• Key Strengths:

  • Late goals (50% in final 15 minutes)

  • Efficient shot accuracy (39.7% on target)

  • Can threaten on the break

💡 Tactical Key: Arsenal will dominate possession and press high, while Spurs may sit deep and counter using Bethany England’s pace.

🔮 Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham

🌟 Why?

Arsenal’s Attacking Edge:

• Averaging 2.23 goals per match vs. Spurs’ 1.23

• Superior xG (26.9 vs. 15.7), indicating higher-quality chances

Tottenham’s Away Woes:

• Conceding 2.00 goals per match away from home

• Historically vulnerable in this rivalry

Head-to-Head Dominance:

• Arsenal lead 8-1 (1 draw) in the last 10 meetings

📢 Final Thoughts

While derbies often defy statistics, Arsenal's superior attacking metrics, defensive solidity, and historical dominance make them clear favorites. Tottenham's late-game prowess (50% of goals in final 15 minutes) could make things interesting, but Arsenal's early pressure and clinical finishing should prove decisive.

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Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below! How do you see this North London Derby playing out?

Stay tuned for comprehensive post-match analysis and more WSL coverage. 📝