2025–26 WSL Matchweek 14 Preview & Predictions
City–Chelsea headlines a round where Manchester United are the standout favourite, Brighton have the edge at home, and three fixtures look set for fine margins.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 14 presents a pivotal moment in the WSL title race as leaders Manchester City (36 pts) host second-place Chelsea (27 pts). A City victory would extend their advantage to a commanding 12 points, putting them firmly in control. However, a Chelsea win would narrow the gap to just six points and breathe new life into the title contest.
Behind them, the fight for European spots is heating up. With Arsenal (3rd, 26 pts) sitting out this matchweek to compete in the FIFA Inaugural Women's Champions Cup, Manchester United (4th, 25 pts) have a golden opportunity to leapfrog them into third with a win over Liverpool, while Tottenham (5th, 23 pts) can also close the gap on the top four if they can find a win in a tricky London derby against West Ham.
At the bottom, Liverpool (12th, 7 pts) finally earned their first win of the season last round by beating Spurs. A result that threw the relegation playoff spot fight wide open. With just one point behind West Ham (11th, 8 pts) and Everton (10th, 8 pts), the Reds will look to build momentum at in-form Manchester United – a tough assignment. West Ham, lifted by last week’s vital win over Leicester, host Tottenham in a pivotal London derby with a chance to climb out of danger.
On our model predictions, United are the standout favourite against Liverpool (68%), while City hold an edge at home in the title clash (55%). The tightest games sit in the mid-table and relegation playoff zone – West Ham vs Tottenham is virtually even (39% – 31% – 29%), while Everton vs Villa also looks close (30% – 32% – 38%). Brighton carry a slight edge against London City (45% – 32% – 23%). As always, though, the matches aren’t played on paper – and after last week’s surprises, nothing can be taken for granted.
Match by Match Preview
Brighton & Hove Albion vs London City Lionesses
Sun 1 Feb, 11:55 – Broadfield Stadium | Sky Sports (YouTube simulcast)
Win probabilities: BHA 45% – 32% draw – 23% LCL
Brighton enter this match looking to build on a much-needed win last weekend. The Seagulls snapped a two-game league losing streak by grinding out a 1–0 victory at Everton, a result that lifted them to 6th in the table (17 points).
LCL are coming off a valiant 1–2 defeat to Manchester City where they pushed the leaders to a late goal. That narrow loss extended a difficult run for the Lionesses, who have taken just one point from their last four league outings.
Key numbers (WSL)
Brighton: 6th – 17 pts | Form: W–L–L–W–W | Goals: 16 for, 15 against | xG: 17.5 / xGA: 16.3 / xGD: +1.2 | Big chances created: 29 (6th) | Big chances missed: 20 | Squad value: €2.18m
London City: 8th – 16 pts | Form: L–D–L–L–W | Goals: 15 for, 23 against | xG: 17.5 / xGA: 21.9 / xGD: –4.4 | Big chances created: 31 (5th) | Big chances missed: 23 | Squad value: €2.455m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
This is the second WSL meeting between them. Their first encounter came earlier this season, when Brighton edged it 1–0 away in October.
🔍 Key Stats to Watch: Chance conversion and shot selection.
Both sides have shown they can create scoring opportunities – but finishing them is another story. Brighton have 17.51 xG and 16 goals, while London City Lionesses have 17.50 xG and 15 goals.
London City in particular have been wasteful: they’ve missed 23 big chances this season, no other side outside the top 4 have missed more. Brighton aren’t far behind with 20 missed big chances. In a match that could be decided by fine margins, the team that finishes more clinically will have the edge.
The numbers:
Brighton – Big Chances Created: 29 (6th of 12) | Big Chances Missed: 20 (6th of 12)
LCL – Big Chances Created: 31 (5th of 12) | Big Chances Missed: 23 (5th of 12)
Manchester United vs Liverpool
Sun 1 Feb, 11:55 – Leigh Sports Village | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MUN 68% – 24% draw – 8% LIV
Manchester United have momentum on their side and are strong favourites. They are coming off a convincing 4–1 victory away at Aston Villa. That result means Marc Skinner’s side are now unbeaten in 7 matches across all competitions.
Liverpool finally have a weight off their shoulders after last week’s dramatic 2–0 win over Tottenham – their first league victory of the season. That result, achieved with two injury-time goals by Mia Enderby, snapped a 15-game winless run in WSL.
Key numbers (WSL)
Man United: 4th – 25 pts | Form: W–D–D–W–L | Goals: 28 for, 14 against | xG: 24.8 / xGA: 16.6 / xGD: +8.3 | Big chances created: 38 (3rd) | Shots per game: 15.5 | Squad value: €7.745m
Liverpool: 12th – 7 pts | Form: W–D–D–L–L | Goals: 10 for, 21 against | xG: 10.5 / xGA: 17.9 / xGD: –7.3 | Big chances created: 18 (9th) | Shots per game: 7.3 | Squad value: €3.07m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
United lead the overall head-to-head 5-3, and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. Liverpool’s only win in that stretch was at Anfield in March 2025 (3-1).
Manchester United have scored 17 goals across just 8 matches against Liverpool, compared to Liverpool’s 6. That’s nearly triple the output – an average of over 2 goals per game.
In the reverse fixture just four months ago, Liverpool lost 0-2 at home to United.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Man Utd’s shot volume vs Liverpool’s offensive drought
Liverpool are the WSL’s most shot-shy team – and they’re heading to a Man Utd side that creates more big chances than anyone outside the top two. United won’t need to be patient; the chances will come.
The numbers:
Liverpool: Shots 95 (12th – fewest) | Shots on target 28 (12th – fewest)
Liverpool: Corners 36 (12th – fewest) | Set-piece xG 1.41 (12th – lowest)
Man United: Shots 201 (4th) – more than double Liverpool’s total
Man United: Big chances created 38 (3rd) – averaging nearly 3 per game
West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 1 Feb, 11:55 – Chigwell Construction Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: WHU 39% – 29% draw – 31% TOT
West Ham come into this London derby with a renewed sense of hope after a crucial 2–1 win at Leicester City last weekend. Last week’s win should boost confidence, and being at home in a derby could spur a spirited performance.
Tottenham, meanwhile, will be eager to rebound after a late 0–2 loss to Liverpool last weekend. If they can shake off last week’s disappointment, Spurs have the quality to take all three points.
Key numbers (WSL)
West Ham: 11th – 8 pts | Form: W–L–D–L–W | Goals: 11 for, 30 against | xG: 12.8 / xGA: 25.8 / xGD: –13.1 | Shots against: 198 (2nd-most) | Aerial duels win rate: 45.77% (10th) | Squad value: €1.77m
Tottenham: 5th – 23 pts | Form: L–W–D–W–D | Goals: 17 for, 18 against | xG: 15.4 / xGA: 22.9 / xGD: –7.5 | Big chances created: 22 | Big chances against: 27 | Squad value: €3.36m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Spurs’ Dominance in the Derby: Tottenham have won 7 of the 13 meetings, with West Ham managing just 3 wins. That’s a 54% win rate for Spurs in this fixture.
Goals Galore When These Two Meet: Across 13 meetings, there have been 34 goals scored (19 for Spurs, 15 for West Ham) – that’s an average of 2.6 goals per game. Draws are rare (just 3), and when one team wins, they tend to win well.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: The perimeter-shooting derby
West Ham matches are the league’s most generous for shots from range. Spurs aren’t far behind too as they have conceded the 2nd most. Both sides should find space for shots outside the box, making shooting accuracy from range a potential match-decider.
The numbers:
West Ham: 66 outside-box shots conceded (most in WSL; 5.1 per match)
Spurs: 62 outside-box shots conceded (2nd-most; 4.8 per match)
Everton vs Aston Villa
Sun 1 Feb, 11:55 – Goodison Park | Sky Sports (YouTube simulcast)
Win probabilities: EVE 30% – 32% draw – 38% AVL
Everton are a team in trouble, desperately seeking a spark to turn around their season. They are yet to win a league game at home this season and sit 10th with 8 points, only one point above the relegation playoff spot. Last weekend’s 0–1 home loss to Brighton was their 6th consecutive WSL defeat at home.
Aston Villa’s inconsistent season continued with a 1–4 home loss to Manchester United last week. They are 7th on 16 points in a campaign of mixed results – capable of beating Liverpool 3–0 and winning at Old Trafford, but also shipping six against Manchester City. They’d won two of their last three before the United setback.
Key numbers (WSL):
Everton: 10th – 8 pts | Form: L–L–W–L–L | Goals: 14 for, 25 against | xG: 10.3 / xGA: 25.8 / xGD: –15.4 | Shots on target for: 38 (10th) | Shots on target against: 77 (most) | Squad value: €1.56m
Aston Villa: 7th – 16 pts | Form: L–W–L–W–L | Goals: 17 for, 23 against | xG: 17.0 / xGA: 22.8 / xGD: –5.7 | Big chances created: 26 | Big chances against: 35 | Set-play xGA: 6.33 (highest) | Squad value: €2.175m
Head-to-head (WSL Only)
Everton have won 6 of the last 11 meetings between these sides, double Aston Villa’s 3 wins. They have also outscored Villa 20-12 across these encounters, showing clear superiority in this fixture.
Aston Villa have won just 3 times in their last 11 meetings. ALL 3 of those wins have come away from home making Sunday's trip to Goodison Park statistically their best chance of victory.
Recent Form Shift – While Everton dominated historically, Villa have shown improvement lately with 2 wins in the last 4 meetings with the most recent one ending in a thrilling 3–3 draw in November 2025.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Everton’s defensive pressure problem vs Villa’s volume
Everton are under siege more than any team in the WSL – facing the most shots, the most shots on target, and the most corners. Worse still, they’re the league’s weakest aerial side. Villa don’t need to be clinical; they just need to keep the pressure coming.
The numbers:
Everton: Shots faced 207 (12th – most) | Shots on target faced 77 (12th – most)
Everton: Corners conceded 92 (12th – most) | Aerial win % 39.9% (12th – worst)
Aston Villa: Aerial win % 47.4% (8th) – a 7.5 percentage point advantage over Everton
Aston Villa: Aerials won 125 vs Everton’s 84 – 41 more headers won this season
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Sun 1 Feb, 14:30 – Etihad Stadium | BBC One
Win probabilities: MCI 55% – 18% draw – 27% CHE
The marquee matchup of Round 14 pits the defending champions against the current league leaders in a clash that could define the title race. Manchester City come into this game flying high at the top of the table with a perfect home record and a 12-game WSL winning streak, stretching their lead to 9 points with a late win over London City Lionesses last week.
Chelsea face a do-or-die scenario in the title race. Sitting 2nd on 27 points, they were stunned 0–2 at home by Arsenal last weekend, a defeat that left them with no margin for error. Another loss would leave them 12 points behind, whereas a win would pull them within 6 and very much back in the hunt.
Key numbers (WSL)
Man City: 1st – 36 pts | Form: W–W–W–W–W | Goals: 36 for, 11 against | xG: 35.6 / xGA: 10.7 / xGD: +24.9 | Shots per game: 19.3 (1st) | Shots inside box: 192 (1st) | Big chances created: 61 (1st) | Squad value: €8.04m.
Chelsea: 2nd – 27 pts | Form: L–W–W–L–D | Goals: 24 for, 8 against | xG: 28.9 / xGA: 12.8 / xGD: +16.1 | Clean sheets: 5 | Goals from set pieces: 7 (1st) | Squad value: €11.87m.
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Chelsea’s Current Winning Streak – Chelsea have won the last 3 consecutive meetings (September 2025, March 2025, November 2024), their best run in this fixture.
Chelsea’s Overall Dominance – Chelsea lead the series with 8 wins to Manchester City’s 2 wins from 17 meetings - a remarkable 47% win rate for Chelsea.
Home Advantage Means Nothing – 63% of meetings at Manchester City's home have ended in draws (5 of 8), with Man City winning just once and Chelsea winning twice.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Chelsea’s ground duel problem vs Man City’s midfield control
Chelsea are the WSL’s worst team in ground duels – and they’re heading to a Man City side that thrives on controlling the middle of the park. If City win the 50/50s, they’ll dictate the tempo of this title clash.
The numbers:
Chelsea: Ground duel win % 45.9% (12th – worst) | Won just 428 of 928 ground duels
Man City: Ground duel win % 50.0% (6th) – 4.1 percentage points higher
Man City: Big chances created 61 (1st) | Chelsea: 43 (2nd) – both elite at creating, but City’s midfield control could be the difference
Chelsea: Set piece xG against 1.89 (1st – best) – the battle may be won or lost in open play, not dead balls
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
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