2025–26 WSL Matchweek 21 Preview & Predictions
City’s title clinch delayed after Brighton loss; Arsenal close to within eight points with two games in hand; Kerr eyes Chelsea’s all-time WSL scoring record; United’s UWCL hopes hang by a thread
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 21 arrives with the WSL title race wider open than it looked seven days ago – and with Leicester City confirmed bottom, their WSL future now hanging on a relegation play-off.
There are five fixtures rather than the usual six for the second consecutive matchweek, with Arsenal v Everton rescheduled to Wednesday 13 May to accommodate Arsenal’s UEFA Women’s Champions League semi-final second leg away at Lyon on Saturday.
Saturday’s programme opens with Manchester United hosting Brighton in Leigh – the only fixture of the day, and the tightest call of the round.
Sunday follows with three matches: Tottenham host London City Lionesses at the BetWright Stadium and Manchester City welcome Liverpool to the Joie Stadium, both at 12:00, before Leicester City face Chelsea at the King Power Stadium at 14:30.
Monday rounds out the matchweek with Aston Villa hosting West Ham at Villa Park at 13:00.
On our predictions, Manchester City are strong favourites at home to Liverpool with a 78% win probability, while Chelsea are heavy favourites away to bottom-placed Leicester at 80%. Aston Villa are expected to beat West Ham with a 57% win probability in a fixture that could shape the final survival picture. Tottenham are marginal favourites against London City Lionesses at 42%, but that one still looks finely balanced. Manchester United v Brighton is the tightest call of the weekend – 35% United win, 32% draw, 33% Brighton win – essentially a three-way coin flip.
Match by Match Preview
Manchester United v Brighton
Sat 2 May — Leigh Sports Village Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MNU 35% – 32% draw – 33% BRI
Manchester United’s UWCL hopes are slipping away in real time. The goalless draw at Spurs continued a damaging run across competitions – three defeats and a draw since their late win over Everton – and left them fourth, four points behind Chelsea and two behind Arsenal, who still have two games in hand. With only Brighton and Chelsea left to play, United surely have to win this match to keep their Champions League bid alive.
Brighton arrive in a completely different headspace. Their performances in recent weeks have been anything but mid-table. They knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup away from home, then took down Manchester City 3–2 in the WSL – two statement results that make this trip to United feel far less predictable. Given United’s current form, Brighton will surely fancy themselves in this fixture.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester United have dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last 10 WSL meetings. Brighton’s only victory in that run was a 1–0 away win in April 2021.
The reverse fixture in November finished Brighton 2–3 Manchester United – a tight game that saw United come away with all three points despite Brighton pushing them close.
🔎 Key player to watch
Kiko Seike’s streak – Seike has scored in each of her last four WSL appearances, becoming the first Brighton player to do so. Her goal against Manchester City was her eighth WSL goal of the season, and with two assists as well, she has been directly involved in 42% of Brighton’s league goals this season.
Tottenham Hotspur v London City Lionesses
Sun 3 May, 12:00 — The BetWright Stadium | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: TOT 42% – 25% draw – 33% LCL
Four WSL matches without a win now for Martin Ho’s side – their longest winless league run of the season. Last weekend, they generated 22 shots and 42 touches in United’s box but still could not find a way past Phallon Tullis-Joyce. The challenge now is obvious: turn dominance into goals.
London City Lionesses, by contrast, bounced back emphatically last weekend, putting five past Leicester in a 5–1 demolition that ended a five-match winless run. With momentum restored and Spurs still searching for fluency in the final third, London City will surely fancy themselves in this fixture.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
There is only one previous WSL meeting between these sides. London City Lionesses won 4–2 at home in November – a result that will give Maestre confidence heading into this one, even on the road.
🔎 Key player to watch
Freya Godfrey vs Spurs – Her breakout WSL moment came against this weekend’s opponents: she scored twice and assisted once in London City’s 4–2 win over Spurs in the reverse fixture. Her goal against Leicester City last weekend took her league tally to 5 goals and 4 assists, meaning she has been directly involved in 36% of London City’s WSL goals this season.
Manchester City v Liverpool
Sun 3 May, 12:00 — Joie Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MCI 78% – 14% draw – 8% LIV
After the shock at Broadfield, Andrée Jeglertz’s side know exactly what’s required: win both remaining fixtures – Liverpool at home and West Ham away – and the title is theirs. It really is that simple. The numbers still overwhelmingly back them. The Brighton defeat was about finishing, not dominance – City generated 2.36 xG, took 17 shots, created seven big chances and missed all seven.
Liverpool arrive in need of a response after last weekend’s defeat to West Ham – a 1–0 loss decided by an early own goal. That result slightly checked the momentum Liverpool had built since the turn of the year, ending their five-match unbeaten run in all competitions. But the final two league fixtures of their campaign could hardly be tougher: first a trip to title-chasing Manchester City, then a home meeting with Arsenal at Anfield. It makes the run-in a brutal test of how far their recent improvement has really come.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester City have dominated this fixture, winning nine of the last 10 WSL meetings. Liverpool’s only victory in that run was a 2–1 home win in May 2023.
The reverse fixture in October finished Liverpool 1–2 Manchester City, continuing City’s iron grip on this fixture. City have won the last four meetings in a row.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Manchester City have taken 373 shots this season – 285 from inside the box – both league-high totals in the WSL. That works out at 18.65 shots per game. Liverpool, by contrast, have faced 223 shots across their 20 matches, including 154 from inside the box. Ranked tenth for shots conceded, the Reds allow far more attempts than most sides in the division – only two teams have faced more.
Leicester City v Chelsea
Sun 3 May, 14:30 — King Power Stadium | BBC
Win probabilities: LEI 7% – 13% draw – 80% CHE
A 7–0 loss to Arsenal on Wednesday confirmed Leicester's bottom-place status, leaving them reliant on a relegation play-off to keep their WSL place for next season. With that target now in mind, they'll be hoping to put in decent performances in their last two fixtures to head into the play-off with some confidence.
Chelsea arrive looking to seal their UWCL qualification. They are four points clear of Manchester United – a win would confirm their Champions League place for next season. They'll want that sealed before the final-day match against Manchester United.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Chelsea have dominated this fixture historically, winning eight of the last nine WSL meetings, with aggregate scorelines including 9–0, 8–0, and 6–0 in recent seasons. The only blot was a 1–1 draw in December 2024.
The reverse fixture in September finished Chelsea 1–0 Leicester at Stamford Bridge.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Sam Kerr record watch – Kerr’s brace against Everton last weekend took her to 63 WSL goals for Chelsea, drawing her level with Fran Kirby as the club’s all-time leading WSL scorer. One more goal would make her the outright record holder – and against a Leicester defence coming off a heavy defeat, the stage feels set.
Aston Villa v West Ham United
Mon 4 May, 13:00 — Villa Park | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: AVL 57% – 26% draw – 17% WHU
Aston Villa return to WSL action after more than a month away, with last weekend’s fixture rearranged. Their last outing was the chaotic 4–3 defeat to Chelsea at Kingsmeadow – a seven-goal thriller in which they led early and later fought back from 3–1 down before Sjoeke Nüsken’s late winner settled it. Before that, Villa came from behind to beat Leicester 2–1, but their broader form remains patchy: their last home league win came all the way back on 11 January against Brighton.
West Ham arrive with momentum after snatching three crucial points at Liverpool last weekend, courtesy of a 6th-minute Cornelia Kapocs own goal. With Leicester now confirmed bottom, the relegation pressure has eased, so this becomes more about sustaining momentum, finishing strongly, and giving Rita Guarino’s side something to build on heading into next season.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Aston Villa have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last 10 WSL meetings, with West Ham winning just twice. The reverse fixture in October finished West Ham 0–2 Aston Villa.
Villa have won the last three meetings in a row, including both fixtures last season.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Set-piece battle on display – Villa have the most efficient set-piece attack in the WSL by goals versus expected. They have scored 7 set-play goals – 2nd in the league – from only 3.6 set-piece xG, meaning they are scoring at nearly twice their expected rate from dead-ball situations. West Ham are not far behind either, with 6 set-play goals from 5.0 set-piece xG, ranking 4th in the WSL.
But the defensive side is where this gets really interesting. Villa have conceded 10 set-play goals from 8.1 set-piece xG – the worst record in the league – while West Ham have conceded 8 from 7.2 set-piece xG, the second-worst in the WSL.
Bottom line: both teams attack set pieces well. Both teams defend them poorly. This could be one of the key battlegrounds at Villa Park.
Data sources – Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob