2025–26 WSL Matchweek 19 Preview & Predictions
The Manchester derby headlines a blockbuster Saturday at Old Trafford, Arsenal host Spurs at the Emirates, and Leicester’s survival hopes face another test against Brighton.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 19 arrives amid a week that has reshaped the season. In the UWCL quarter-finals, Arsenal beat Chelsea 3 – 1 at the Emirates to take a commanding lead in their all-London tie, while Manchester United fell 2 – 3 to Bayern Munich at Old Trafford despite twice drawing level. Those midweek exertions cast a long shadow over this weekend’s WSL programme, with three of the league’s top four now balancing European hangovers with a title race and UWCL qualification battle that remain far from settled.
Manchester City’s 5 – 2 victory over Tottenham last weekend moved them to 46 points, eight clear at the summit. Three wins from their remaining four matches would clinch a first WSL title in a decade. Manchester United leapfrogged Chelsea into second on 38 points after Melvine Malard’s stoppage-time winner against Everton, while Chelsea slipped to third on 37 after being held 1 – 1 by London City Lionesses. Arsenal’s 5 – 0 rout of West Ham leaves them on 35 points with two games in hand.
Saturday’s programme is headlined by the Manchester derby at Old Trafford, preceded by the Merseyside derby at Goodison Park and followed by Arsenal against Tottenham at the Emirates. Sunday brings Chelsea hosting Aston Villa at Kingsmeadow, West Ham welcoming London City Lionesses in a crucial fixture at opposite ends of the table, and Leicester facing Brighton at the King Power Stadium.
On our predictions, Arsenal (85%) are the weekend’s overwhelming favourites, while Chelsea (76%) are also strongly fancied against Villa. Manchester City (42%) are narrow favourites for the derby, though United’s home record keeps it closer than the table suggests – with 1 – 1 the most likely scoreline. London City Lionesses (50%) are predicted to win at West Ham, while Everton (43%) hold a slim edge in the Merseyside derby, where 1 – 0 is the most likely result. Brighton (44%) are modest favourites at Leicester, with 0 – 1 the likeliest scoreline.
Match by Match Preview
Everton v Liverpool
Sat 28 Mar — Goodison Park | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: EVE 43% – 31% draw – 26% LIV
The Merseyside derby opens the weekend at Goodison Park, and Everton will be hurting. Their four-game winning streak – the run that carried them from 11th to 6th – was ended in cruel fashion at Old Trafford last week, as Malard’s injury-time header turned a 90th-minute equaliser into a gut-punch defeat. Scott Phelan’s side remain on 20 points, eleven clear of danger, but with little to play for beyond pride and the emotional weight of the derby itself.
Liverpool arrive having quietly steadied their season. Unbeaten in three WSL games and now five points clear of the bottom, Gareth Taylor’s side are no longer in acute danger. The goalless draw at Brighton last week extended that unbeaten run, even if the performance – 0.32 xG and few clear chances – underlined the attacking limitations that continue to hold them back.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Everton have won five consecutive meetings, including a comprehensive 4 – 1 win at Liverpool earlier this season.
At home, though, margins tend to narrow – three of the last four at Everton have been decided by a single goal or fewer.
🔎 Key stats to watch
The data profiles this as a low-quality affair. Both sides rank in the bottom three for xG, shots, and big chances created, and neither controls possession well – Everton average 45.17% and Liverpool 47.72%. Expect transitions and scrappiness rather than sustained control. Liverpool’s ground duel win percentage (52.72%, 1st in the WSL) is their one clear structural edge, while Everton’s aerial win rate remains the worst in the league at 41.44%.
Manchester United v Manchester City
Sat 28 Mar — Old Trafford | BBC
Win probabilities: MNU 35% – 23% draw – 42% MCI
The Manchester derby is the fixture of the weekend – and the context around it is extraordinary. Manchester United face City less than three days after their heartbreaking 2 – 3 defeat to Bayern Munich in the UWCL quarter-final first leg. Marc Skinner’s side twice drew level through Le Tissier’s penalty and Lundkvist’s header, only for Momoko Tanikawa’s late winner to hand Bayern the advantage heading into the second leg. It was United’s fourth game in 11 days, and the turnaround to Saturday lunchtime is brutally short. Julia Zigiotti is suspended after picking up her fifth yellow against Everton, and Dominique Janssen carries a fitness doubt. A squad already stretched thin now faces the league leaders.
City, by contrast, are fully rested. With no midweek European commitments, Andrée Jeglertz’s side have had a full week to prepare after last weekend’s Shaw-inspired 5 – 2 win over Tottenham. They sit eight points clear at the summit, and victory here – away to their closest challengers – would all but place one hand on the title. Shaw’s 18 goals in 18 league games is the defining individual campaign of the season, and City lead the WSL across the key attacking metrics.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
The head-to-head at United is genuinely balanced – United have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss across the last four home meetings, with both draws finishing 2–2.
City’s dominance has come at their own ground, where they won 3–0 in the reverse fixture in November. But United’s fatigue, tight turnaround and the emotional hangover from Bayern may tip the balance.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Statistically, this is a meeting of two well-constructed sides. Both rank in the WSL’s top three for xG conceded, so chances may be harder to come by than their attacking pedigree suggests – even though City lead the league in xG created (48.29) and United sit fourth (30.9). Both want to dominate possession (City 56.33%, United 56.89%), so something has to give. City’s clearest edge may be at set pieces: they lead the WSL in set-piece xG created (10.33), while United’s set-piece defence sits mid-table at 5.07.
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Sat 28 Mar — Emirates Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: ARS 85% – 10% draw – 5% TOT
Arsenal could hardly arrive in better form. Renée Slegers’ side followed up their 5 – 0 demolition of West Ham in matchweek 18 with a stunning 3 – 1 victory over Chelsea in the UWCL quarter-final first leg at the Emirates, where Blackstenius, Kelly, and Russo all scored in front of 18,087 fans. They are now on four consecutive WSL wins, an 11-game unbeaten run in the league, and have kept five straight clean sheets in the WSL – eight in total this season. Slegers has also managed minutes expertly, rotating heavily against West Ham before bringing McCabe, Fox, and Mead in for the European tie against Chelsea.
Tottenham, by contrast, are reeling. Back-to-back defeats – a 2 – 1 loss at Everton followed by a 5 – 2 mauling by Manchester City, where Bunny Shaw’s hat-trick tore through them before half-time – represent a dramatic collapse in form. Martin Ho’s side is also set to miss Clare Hunt for the rest of the season after being ruled out for knee surgery, a significant blow to a defence that has conceded 31.26 xG, the third worst in the WSL.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Overall, it stands at 7 – 2 – 1 in Arsenal’s favour across 10 meetings. Spurs’ sole win was a 1 – 0 home victory in December 2023.
The reverse fixture finished 0 – 0 at Spurs in November – the first time in six meetings that Spurs avoided defeat.
Arsenal’s home record against Spurs is the standout: four wins from four, with scorelines of 5 – 0, 4 – 0, 3 – 0, and 1 – 0. They have never conceded at home to Spurs in those four meetings.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Arsenal’s 12.15 xG against is the best in the league, while Spurs have conceded 31.26 – the third worst figure in the WSL. Set pieces widen the gap further: both sides create well from dead balls, but Arsenal have conceded just 3.35 set-piece xG, the second-lowest total in the league, compared with Spurs’ 7.09, the fourth highest. Spurs’ only clear structural route may be through the air – their 56.22% aerial win rate ranks second in the WSL and stands as their one obvious edge against an Arsenal side that ranks eighth aerially.
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Sun 29 Mar — Kingsmeadow | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: CHE 76% – 15% draw – 9% AVL
Chelsea face a delicate balancing act. Sonia Bompastor’s side are still stinging from the 3 – 1 defeat to Arsenal in the first leg of their UWCL quarter-final – a match in which they hit the woodwork twice and had two goals disallowed, prompting Bompastor to criticise the officiating afterwards. The return leg at Stamford Bridge on 1 April now looms as a defining fixture, which means Sunday’s meeting with Aston Villa sits awkwardly between the two European ties and is likely to bring rotation.
Villa, meanwhile, are quietly on the upswing. Their 2 – 1 comeback win at Leicester last week came on the back of a battling 0 – 0 draw against league leaders Manchester City the week before. Back-to-back positive results, after four straight defeats, point to a meaningful shift in momentum. Kirsty Hanson’s 10 WSL goals make her one of the division’s standout scorers, and Ebony Salmon’s impact off the bench against Leicester suggests Natalia Arroyo has genuine attacking options to call upon.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Chelsea have won all 10 previous WSL meetings between these sides, and the reverse fixture ended in a 3 – 1 Chelsea win away to Villa in September.
While this Chelsea side does look different – depleted, distracted, and carrying the emotional weight of a huge European tie – the historical gap between the teams still makes an upset difficult to envisage.
🔎 Key stats to watch
The statistical matchup points firmly Chelsea’s way, even with rotation likely. Chelsea are the WSL’s second-best set-piece creators (7.94 xG), while Villa concede the most set-piece xG in the league (8.22). Chelsea also win the most corners (138) against a Villa side that concedes the second most (118). Inside the box, Chelsea rank 2nd for shots (210) and big chances (53); Villa concede the most box shots in the division (191) and the 3rd most big chances (49).
West Ham United v London City Lionesses
Sun 29 Mar — Chigwell Construction Stadium | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: WHU 20% – 30% draw – 50% LCL
West Ham’s season is at a critical juncture. The 5 – 0 hammering at Arsenal last week was a chastening afternoon, even if the result itself was not entirely unexpected. Rita Guarino’s side sit 11th on 12 points, three points above bottom club Leicester, although the Foxes have a game in hand. With just four games remaining for West Ham, this stands out as one of their most winnable fixtures left – and a home match they simply cannot afford to lose.
London City Lionesses arrive buoyed by last week’s 1 – 1 draw with Chelsea, with Isobel Goodwin’s 82nd-minute equaliser capping a superb second-half display at The Den. That result also ended a four-game losing run in all competitions and offered a timely lift in confidence. They currently sit 7th on 20 points.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
There has only been one previous meeting between these sides, so the head-to-head record is minimal. In the reverse fixture, London City Lionesses won 1 – 0 at home in October.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Both sides are defined by defensive work rate – West Ham lead the WSL for tackles (410), while LCL lead for interceptions (193). But the underlying numbers diverge: West Ham have conceded the most xG in the league (34.38), with that high defensive activity often reflecting reactive firefighting rather than control. LCL’s set-piece quality (5.85 xG) and aerial advantage (53% vs 46%) offer a path to goal, while West Ham’s 18 big chances all season make it difficult to see where their goals will come from.
Leicester City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Sun 29 Mar — King Power Stadium | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: LEI 23% – 33% draw – 44% BRI
Leicester’s plight grows more desperate by the week. A sixth consecutive defeat – the 2–1 loss to Aston Villa, in which they led at half-time through Alisha Lehmann’s first Leicester goal before collapsing after the break – leaves Rick Passmoor’s side bottom on 9 points, three adrift of West Ham, with five games remaining, including a game in hand against Arsenal. Every match now feels like a final for them.
Brighton arrive in scrappy mode. One win in their last six WSL matches tells that story. Although Dario Vidošić has hinted at a more pragmatic approach, speaking about attitude and fight as his side look to see out the rest of the season, the recent run suggests a team still battling for rhythm. They are under no immediate danger, sitting 9th on 18 points with a game in hand, nine points clear of the relegation zone, and a win here would lift them into the mid-table cluster.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Overall, the head-to-head stands at 4 – 1 – 4 across nine meetings – perfectly balanced on wins – though the recent momentum has shifted toward Brighton, who have won three of the last five.
The reverse fixture finished as a 4 – 1 Brighton win in November – their biggest margin of victory in this fixture.
The pattern of the fixture has also changed in recent seasons. The first four meetings produced just four total goals, but the last five have averaged over three per game, with both teams scoring in four of them.
🔎 Key stats to watch
Leicester’s defensive numbers are the worst in the league by multiple measures: they have conceded the most big chances (56), rank worst for xGOT against (30.62), and have required the most saves from their goalkeeper (70). Brighton are not prolific – their xGOT ranks 9th – but Leicester’s fragility means even moderate attacking output should still create chances. The question is whether Brighton can convert them: finishing has been a season-long problem, and this has the profile of a tight, low-quality game.
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob