2025–26 WSL Matchweek 18 Preview & Predictions
City look to bounce back against Spurs, Arsenal seek to close the gap on Chelsea, and Leicester’s survival hopes hang by a thread as they host Villa.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 18 arrives just days after the final two games of matchweek 17, a round that produced only 10 goals across six fixtures – the lowest-scoring round of the season. The title remains Manchester City’s to lose despite their surprise 0–0 draw at Villa Park last weekend, but the UWCL qualification battle has tightened considerably. Chelsea overtook Manchester United with their 2–1 win over Brighton, while Arsenal, in fourth on 32 points, closed to within four points of second place with two games still in hand.
This weekend’s six fixtures are split across Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, Manchester United host a resurgent Everton, while Arsenal welcome West Ham in what looks set to be the weekend’s most one-sided contest. Sunday brings four simultaneous fixtures: Manchester City host Tottenham at the Joie Stadium, Chelsea travel to London City Lionesses, Brighton face Liverpool, and Leicester take on Aston Villa in a meeting between the division’s two most out-of-form sides.
On our predictions, Arsenal (87%) are the weekend’s strongest favourites, with Manchester City (83%) close behind against Tottenham. Manchester United (56%) are also expected to pick up three points, while Chelsea (46%) are narrow favourites for their trip to London City Lionesses, though a 27% draw probability makes that the least certain of the weekend’s predicted outcomes. Brighton v Liverpool is the tightest call – 44%–33%–23% in Brighton’s favour – with 1–0 the most likely scoreline. Leicester v Aston Villa is also finely balanced, with Villa holding a narrow 41%–29%–30% edge.
Match by Match Preview
Manchester United v Everton
Sat 21 Mar — Leigh Sports Village | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: MNU 56% – 26% draw – 18% EVE
Manchester United will be frustrated after their 0–0 draw at West Ham in matchweek 17. Marc Skinner’s side had plenty of control and dominance in that game but could not find a breakthrough. They have now slipped to third after Chelsea’s win over Brighton and sit one point behind the Blues, with Arsenal closing from behind, so they will view this game as a must-win. Their broader form is still strong, though – four wins and a draw from their last five, with 35 goals scored this season, the second-most in the division.
Everton arrive on an extraordinary four-game winning streak that has transformed their season. From 11th just five weeks ago, they have climbed to 6th on 20 points. The 2–1 win over Tottenham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was the most eye-catching result, but the concern remains that the underlying numbers do not quite match the outcomes: Everton’s xGD of -13.0 is only the 10th-best in the division. Something has to give – either the results catch up with the xG, or the xG starts catching up with the results.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester United have been utterly dominant in this fixture. Across their last 10 WSL meetings, United have won eight, with the other two ending in draws. February 2023 was the last time Everton took a point from this match-up.
The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Manchester United win 4–1 away to Everton in October, continuing a pattern of heavy defeats for the Toffees in this fixture. United have won by a combined score of 25–4 across those 10 meetings.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Everton have conceded 127 corners this season – more than any other side in the WSL – and rank dead last for aerial win percentage at just 41.47%. Manchester United rank 1st for aerials won (212) and have the delivery quality to exploit that weakness. United’s set piece dominance against Everton’s aerial fragility could be an important battleground in this one.
Arsenal v West Ham United
Sat 21 Mar — Meadow Park | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: ARS 87% – 10% draw – 3% WHU
Arsenal are the form side in the WSL. Renée Slegers’ side have won five of their last six league matches, including a controlled 2 – 0 victory over London City Lionesses last weekend, which moved them to 32 points. With two games in hand on every side above them, the UWCL qualification race is firmly in Arsenal’s hands: win those games and they leapfrog into second. Their defensive record is the best in the division (12.1 xGA – 1st; 10 goals conceded – 1st), and their 87% win probability for this fixture is the highest of any match this weekend.
West Ham’s season continues to be a fight for survival. They sit 11th on 12 points after a 0 – 0 draw with Manchester United, three points above bottom club Leicester. They created just 0.30 xG in that match and have managed only 18 big chances all season – the fewest in the division. A trip to face the league’s best defence looks an unenviable assignment, and anything other than defeat would represent a major achievement.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Arsenal have dominated this fixture, winning eight of the last 10 WSL meetings, drawing one and losing one. West Ham’s only victory in that run came in February 2024, when they claimed a 2 – 1 home win.
The reverse fixture in September was emphatic – Arsenal thrashed West Ham 5 – 1 away from home. Arsenal have now scored 26 goals across their last 10 meetings with the Hammers, averaging 2.6 per game.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Arsenal and West Ham represent the two extremes of open play defending in the WSL – Arsenal have conceded just 8.51 xG from open play (best in the league) while West Ham sit bottom at 22.42 (dead last). With Arsenal averaging nearly 60% possession, West Ham face a territorial onslaught against a side that barely concedes anything in the normal flow of the game.
London City Lionesses v Chelsea
Sun 22 Mar — Copperjax Community Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: LCL 27% – 27% draw – 46% CHE
London City Lionesses are in a difficult run of form, with four defeats in their last five WSL matches dropping them to seventh on 19 points. One win in their last eight league games tells the story. They sit in a pack of mid-table sides separated by just three points and, while there is no immediate danger, the trajectory is moving in the wrong direction.
Chelsea arrive after three consecutive wins – including a 2–1 victory over Brighton in matchweek 17 that moved them above Manchester United into second place on 36 points. Sonia Bompastor’s side have the second-highest xG in the division (34.7) and have created 50 big chances, also the second-most in the league. The title is now seven points away, but Chelsea’s immediate priority will be to cement a UWCL place while maintaining momentum in their Champions League campaign.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
There is only one previous WSL meeting between these sides. Chelsea won 2–0 at Stamford Bridge in November.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Chelsea have generated 7.75 xG from set plays this season – the second-highest total in the league – and have taken a league-high 132 corners. London City Lionesses, meanwhile, have conceded 102 corners – the third most in the WSL. That sets up a clear mismatch. Chelsea are elite at creating threat from dead-ball situations, while LCL are one of the teams most often forced to defend them. If LCL cannot tighten up in those moments, Chelsea could punish them.
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 22 Mar — Joie Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MCI 83% – 10% draw – 7% TOT
Manchester City will be keen to respond after their surprise 0–0 draw at Villa Park last weekend. Gareth Taylor’s side created just 1.03 xG and registered only four shots on target – well below their usual attacking output. It was the second time City had failed to score in a league match this season, and the result narrowed their lead over second-placed Chelsea to seven points. City remain clear leaders, though, with 43 points and a league-high 47 goals scored.
A week after their 7 – 3 demolition of Aston Villa, Spurs were beaten 2 – 1 at home by Everton, generating just 0.80 xG and creating no big chances. They remain fifth on 29 points, but with Arsenal holding two games in hand, the UWCL qualification race may now be slipping away from Martin Ho’s side. A trip to the Joie Stadium against a City team looking to respond is a daunting prospect.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester City have dominated this fixture in the WSL. Across the last 10 league meetings, City have won nine and lost one, with Tottenham’s only victory in that run coming in September 2021.
The reverse fixture in September saw City win 5–1 away to Spurs. City have scored 31 goals across their last 10 completed WSL meetings with Spurs, averaging 3.1 per game.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Manchester City create 4.71 big chances per game (80 total, 1st in the WSL) – more than double the league average. Tottenham have conceded 39 big chances this season (9th worst) and 28.8 xGA (also 9th). In the reverse fixture, City scored five and created chances at will. With City looking to respond after the Villa draw, Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities could be ruthlessly exposed.
Brighton v Liverpool
Sun 22 Mar — Broadfield Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: BRI 44% – 33% draw – 23% LIV
Brighton’s form has been off. Five defeats in their last six WSL matches have seen them slide to 8th on 17 points, and the manner of those losses has been concerning – Brighton created just 0.48 xG in their most recent outing against Chelsea, with only one shot on target. They have also missed 22 big chances this season, suggesting the finishing problems that have plagued them all year are only getting worse.
Liverpool arrive in far better shape. Gareth Taylor’s side have picked up 10 points from their last seven league matches after taking just four from their opening 10 – a run that has significantly changed the complexion of their season. The 2–0 win over Leicester last weekend lifted them above West Ham while opening up a four-point cushion over Leicester at the bottom. Survival is still not secure, but the momentum is now unmistakably with Liverpool.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Liverpool hold the upper hand in this fixture. Across their last 10 WSL meetings, Liverpool have won six, drawn twice and lost twice – both of Brighton’s victories came before 2020.
The reverse fixture earlier this season finished 1–1 at St Helens Stadium in November. Before that draw, Liverpool had won five consecutive meetings with Brighton, including last season’s 2–1 away win.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Brighton have created 32 big chances in 16 matches but missed 22 of them – a 69% miss rate and one of the worst conversion records in the WSL. That profligacy now meets a Liverpool defence that has conceded 36 big chances and 24.15 xGOT across 17 matches. The openings should be there; the question is whether Brighton can finally take them.
Leicester City v Aston Villa
Sun 22 Mar — Pirelli Stadium | BBC
Win probabilities: LEI 30% – 29% draw – 41% AVL
Five consecutive WSL defeats – the latest a 2–0 loss to Liverpool in what was billed as a relegation six-pointer – have left Rick Passmoor’s side bottom of the table on 9 points, three adrift of West Ham above them. They have scored just 8 goals all season, the fewest in the division, from 10.8 xG – also the league’s lowest. The attacking output is so poor that even a slight improvement may not be enough – they need to find a cutting edge, and fast.
Aston Villa’s fortunes may have hit their lowest point before the 0–0 draw against Manchester City in matchweek 17. After four consecutive defeats in which they conceded 24 goals, a clean sheet against the league’s best attack could yet mark a turning point. They sit 9th on 17 points – eight above Leicester – but a run of one draw and four losses from their last five means they can take nothing for granted. Villa’s 36 goals conceded remains the worst defensive record in the division, but the Villa Park shutout offers a glimmer of hope that the decline can still be halted.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Aston Villa have been dominant in this fixture. Across their last nine WSL meetings, Villa have won five and drawn three, with Leicester’s only victory a 3–0 win in February 2025.
The reverse fixture earlier this season ended 0–0 at Villa Park in October. That followed Leicester’s 3–0 win in the previous league meeting, their first and only victory across the last nine WSL encounters between the sides. Recent meetings have generally been tight, with four of the last five producing two goals or fewer.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Leicester and Aston Villa are the two worst defences in the WSL by expected goals on target conceded – Leicester sit bottom at 30.04 (worst in the league) and Villa are right behind at 28.71 (2nd worst). Between them they have conceded 99 shots on target this season. Villa’s attack (20.32 xGOT, 5th) has the tools to punish Leicester’s defence, but Leicester’s blunt frontline (9.45 xGOT, dead last) may struggle to exploit Villa’s own vulnerability.
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob