2025–26 WSL Matchweek 17 Preview & Predictions
Villa's freefall meets City's title march, Liverpool and Leicester face off in a relegation six-pointer, and Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham battle for Champions League places.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 17 returns after the international break with four simultaneous fixtures on Sunday lunchtime and a midweek clash to follow, with the title race all but settled. Manchester City (1st, 42 pts) need just 12 points from their remaining matches to clinch the championship, and their 11-point cushion over Manchester United (2nd, 34 pts) means the real battle behind them has shifted to the Champions League places. Chelsea (3rd, 33 pts), Arsenal (4th, 29 pts), and Tottenham (5th, 29 pts) are separated by four points, with Arsenal holding two games in hand after their Brighton fixture was postponed.
The weekend’s fixtures cut across all three narratives. City travel to a crisis-engulfed Aston Villa — the most lopsided matchup on paper. At the other end of the table, Liverpool host Leicester at St Helens in what is effectively a relegation six-pointer, with just one point separating two sides in genuine danger. Tottenham arrive in electric form after their 7–3 victory over Villa, hosting an Everton side who arrive with three consecutive wins behind them. Arsenal face London City in a fixture where the draw probability is a genuine warning sign, while Chelsea round off the matchweek with a Wednesday night home game against Brighton.
On our predictions, Manchester City (71%) are the weekend’s strongest favourites, with Chelsea (69%) and Tottenham (57%) also expected to collect three points. Arsenal (57%) are favoured away at London City, though the 30% draw probability is notable. Liverpool v Leicester is the tightest call — 48%–37%–15% in Liverpool’s favour, with 0–0 the most likely scoreline.
Match by Match Preview
Aston Villa v Manchester City
Sun 15 Mar, 11:55 AM – Villa Park | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: AVL 12% – 17% draw – 71% MCI
Aston Villa’s season has reached crisis point. Natalia Arroyo’s side have now lost four consecutive WSL matches, and the manner of the defeats is worrying. The 7–3 loss to Tottenham at Villa Park in matchweek 16 took their goals conceded across the last six league defeats to 24. They have conceded 36 goals this season, now the worst defensive record in the division. From a position of relative mid-table comfort, Villa have slid to ninth on 16 points, and while seven points above the relegation playoff place still provides a buffer, the trajectory is genuinely concerning.
Manchester City arrive in superb form. A 6–0 demolition of Leicester in matchweek 16 was a ruthless response after the loss to Arsenal the week prior. Four goals before half-time, five different scorers, and Lauren Hemp creating 11 chances in a single match. City have won nine out of nine league matches at home and sit 11 points clear at the top. Against a Villa side that is conceding goals at the rate which they do, the question is not whether City win, but by how much.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester City have been dominant in this fixture. Across their last 10 WSL meetings, City have won eight, drawn one and lost just once. Villa's only victory in the series came in September 2022 — a 4–3 home win.
The reverse fixture in October saw City win 2–1 at the Joie Stadium, continuing their recent stranglehold on the tie. City have now won five of the last six meetings between the sides.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Aston Villa concede more xG from set pieces than any side in the WSL (8.82, worst in the league), accounting for nearly 31% of their total xG against, and conceded 10 goals from them. Manchester City generate more set-piece xG than anyone (9.15, 1st) and scored 11 goals from them.
Liverpool v Leicester City
Sun 15 Mar, 11:55 AM – St Helens Stadium | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: LIV 48% – 37% draw – 15% LEI
This is the biggest match of the weekend for both sides. Liverpool (11th, 10 pts) host Leicester City (12th, 9 pts) at St Helens in what is effectively a relegation six-pointer. Gareth Taylor’s side have shown flashes of improvement recently. The 4–1 victory over Aston Villa in matchweek 15 was the high point, but they couldn’t build on it, losing 2–0 to Chelsea the following weekend. They have picked up 7 points from their last 5, which is very impressive given that they only managed 3 in their first 11. That said, they remain desperately short of goals, with just 15 scored all season (Joint 10th in the division).
Leicester’s situation is even more dire. Rick Passmoor’s side are on a four-game losing streak in the WSL and sit bottom on 9 points. They were hammered 6–0 by Manchester City in matchweek 16. They have scored just 8 goals in the league this season (fewest in the league) and created only 14 big chances (fewest in the league). A defeat here could see them fall further adrift in the survival fight, with the gap to safety potentially becoming difficult to bridge.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Leicester hold the upper hand in this fixture. Across their last 7 WSL meetings, Leicester have won 4 to Liverpool’s 2, with one draw — making this a tricky assignment for the hosts.
Leicester also won the reverse fixture earlier this season, a 1–0 home win in September. They followed that up with a 2–1 victory over Liverpool in January 2025, meaning they have won back-to-back meetings against Liverpool heading into Sunday.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Liverpool and Leicester are the WSL’s two least productive attacks. Leicester have generated just 10.98 xG ( last) from 124 shots (11th), while Liverpool sit just above them on 14.19 xG (11th) from 122 shots (last). Neither side can find the net with any regularity. Expect goals to be at a premium on Sunday.
London City Lionesses v Arsenal
Sun 15 Mar, 11:55 AM – Copperjax Community Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: LCL 13% – 30% draw – 57% ARS
London City Lionesses have been inconsistent since Eder Maestre took charge. Their form reads one win, one draw, and three defeats from their last five WSL matches, and the creative block in the final third remains their biggest issue – they have scored just 18 league goals this season and have been shut out in several recent matches. However, the Copperjax Community Stadium has been a difficult ground for visitors, and London City’s pressing intensity makes them a dangerous opponent for any side trying to play through them.
Arsenal arrive with a significant squad management challenge. Renée Slegers' side are juggling Champions League quarter-final commitments, FA Cup progression, and two games in hand in the league — meaning rotation is likely, and a full-strength lineup is far from guaranteed. Against a side that presses with London City's intensity, that could matter. They sit fourth on 29 points, level with Tottenham but with two fewer matches played, and their recent form is the strongest in the division — four wins and a draw in their last five.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
There is only one previous WSL meeting between these sides. Arsenal won 5–1 at the Emirates in September.
London City Lionesses have evolved considerably since that early-season encounter. Six wins and 19 points from 16 matches show a team that has learned to compete at this level, and their home record has been a key part of that.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Arsenal are the WSL’s hardest team to press — 8,420 passes completed (1st), 59.19% possession (Joint 1st), just 99 fouls conceded (1st). London City are built to force turnovers — 167 interceptions (1st), 778 duels won (2nd). But a press that never wins the ball doesn’t just fail tactically — it wears you out.
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Sun 15 Mar, 11:55 AM – Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: TOT 57% – 25% draw – 18% EVE
Tottenham are riding on an extraordinary high after beating Villa 7–3 at Villa Park in matchweek 16 — only the second time in WSL history that Spurs have scored seven in a single game. It propelled them to level on points with Arsenal in the table, although Arsenal has two games in hand. Martin Ho’s side have won three of their last five league matches, and with this fixture being at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium they’d be keen to put on a show in front of their home fans.
Everton also come into this on a high. They have won three on the bounce after winning only two of the first 13 games. They sit eighth on 17 points, eight points above the relegation playoff place. The concern for Everton, however, is that their underlying numbers don’t match the recent results — with an xGD of -14.3, they are second worst in the division.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
This is a remarkably even fixture. Across their last 10 meetings, both sides have won three apiece, with four draws.
The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Tottenham win 2–0 away at Everton in September, one of only two wins Spurs have managed in the last eight meetings.
Everton’s last win in the series came in April 2023, a 2–1 victory. Since then, Tottenham have won twice and the sides have drawn three times — Spurs have the slight edge in recent form.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Everton have conceded chances worth 6.78 xG from set plays (third worst in the league) but only conceded 3 goals from it, outperforming their expected numbers by almost 4 goals. By contrast, Tottenham create plenty — their 6.10 xG from set plays ranks joint third in the league — but they've only scored 4, leaving 2 goals on the table. Could we expect a mean reversion on Sunday?
Chelsea v Brighton
Wed 18 Mar, 07:00 PM – Kingsmeadow | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: CHE 69% – 20% draw – 11% BRI
After a turbulent mid-season, Chelsea are gradually building back momentum. After back-to-back losses to Arsenal and City, they have recovered with 2–0 win over Liverpool and Tottenham. They sit third on 33 points, one behind Manchester United and four ahead of Arsenal who have 2 games in hand. With the title now beyond reach, Sonia Bompastor’s focus would be to ensure securing that UWCL berth and navigating their Champions League campaign.
Brighton’s season has taken a dramatic turn. They have lost four of their last five WSL matches and sit seventh on 17 points. From a position of relative comfort in mid-table, they have now slipped into a pack of teams separated by just three points. Their last outing before the break ended in defeat, and a midweek trip to Kingsmeadow against a Chelsea side hitting their stride is a tough assignment.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Chelsea have been very dominant in this fixture. Across their last 10 WSL meetings, Chelsea have won seven, drawn two and lost just once — Brighton’s only victory came back in February 2021, a 2–1 win.
The reverse fixture in December was emphatic — Chelsea won 3–0 at the Amex.
🔎 Key stat to watch
Brighton have generated 19.52 xG this season but only 16.87 xGOT, ranking 8th in the league for shots on target relative to chances created. They've also missed 22 big chances. The finishing isn't just there. Against most sides that's a problem. Against Chelsea — who average 59.19% possession (joint 1st) — it becomes a much bigger one, because Brighton will spend long stretches of this game chasing the ball rather than building toward goal.
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
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