2025–26 WSL Matchweek 16 Preview & Predictions
City look to respond after their streak was snapped, Arsenal's red-hot run heads to Brighton, and the survival fight could be reshaped at Goodison.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 16 opens on Friday night at the Joie Stadium, where Manchester City (1st, 39 pts) host bottom-of-the-table Leicester City. The league leaders will be desperate to bounce back after Arsenal ended their 13-match winning streak at the Emirates last weekend.
The Champions League race is heating up behind City. Manchester United (2nd, 31 pts) host London City Lionesses at Leigh Sports Village sandwiched between the two legs of their Champions League knockout playoff against Atletico Madrid.
Chelsea (3rd, 30 pts) welcome a resurgent Liverpool to Kingsmeadow, needing to keep winning to stay in the UWCL places after the 5–1 demolition by City two weekends ago effectively ended their title defence.
Arsenal (4th, 29 pts) arrive at Brighton riding the form of the season – the FIFA Women’s Champions, a 2–0 win at Chelsea, a 1–0 victory over league leaders City and a dominant Champions League first leg against OH Leuven have made it five wins in five across all competitions.
Mid-table is tightly packed and full of intrigue. Tottenham (5th, 26 pts) travel to an Aston Villa (8th, 16 pts) side in freefall – four defeats in five – while London City Lionesses (6th, 19 pts) and Brighton (7th, 17 pts) are both searching for answers after losing their respective last outings. Villa’s form has become a genuine concern, with 10 goals conceded across their last three defeats alone.
At the bottom, the picture has shifted dramatically. Leicester (12th, 9 pts) have been overtaken by both West Ham (11 pts) and Liverpool (10 pts) after those sides produced memorable results last weekend – Liverpool’s 4–1 thrashing of Aston Villa and West Ham’s astonishing three-goals-in-nine-minutes comeback against Brighton.
Only two points separate the bottom three, and Leicester’s Friday night assignment against the league’s most dominant side could see them fall further adrift.
Everton v West Ham at Goodison Park is arguably the weekend’s most significant fixture in the survival fight – Everton arrive with two consecutive WSL wins and momentum under their new manager, while West Ham carry the confidence of that extraordinary comeback.
On our predictions, Manchester City are overwhelming favourites at home to Leicester (90%), while Chelsea (77%) and Manchester United (69%) are also expected to take three points. Arsenal are strong favourites away at Brighton (63%), though it is a ground where Brighton pulled off a stunning 4–2 upset last season. Aston Villa v Tottenham is the tightest call at the top end of the card – Villa hold a narrow home edge (48%) but Spurs’ new signings and improving trajectory make this a genuine toss-up. Everton v West Ham (43% – 30% – 28%) has the makings of a cagey, nervy affair where neither side can afford to lose.
Match by Match Preview
Manchester City v Leicester City
Fri 13 Feb, 07:00 PM – Joie Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MCI 90% – 8% draw – 2% LEI
Manchester City’s championship momentum was halted last weekend when Arsenal handed them their second league defeat of the season, ending a 13-match winning streak. They will need to bounce back quickly, and the visit of Leicester City could be the perfect opportunity to do so.
Leicester have dropped to the bottom of the table after matchweek 15, having last been there on the opening weekend. Liverpool’s recent surge and West Ham’s turnaround have tightened the fight at the bottom – and Leicester now face the relegation playoff scrap many feared for them at the start of the season. They come into this on the back of three consecutive WSL defeats, so it’s hard to imagine a worse fixture to try to spark a rebound.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Manchester City has completely dominated this fixture. They have won all 9 WSL meetings against Leicester. No draws, no Leicester wins. It’s a 100% win rate.
City have also scored 25 goals and conceded just 1 across those 9 fixtures. That’s an average of nearly 2.8 goals per game whilst conceding 0.11.
Leicester’s only goal in the history of this fixture came back in November 2021, in a 1–4 defeat. Since then, they’ve gone eight consecutive matches without scoring against City.
🔎 Key stat to watch
The WSL’s most lethal attack meets the defence that keeps surviving big moments
Manchester City create more big chances than anyone in the WSL (70, 1st) but also miss more than anyone (44 missed, 1st). Leicester concede more big chances than any other side (43, worst in WSL) – however, opponents keep failing to convert, missing 34 of them (also the most in the league).
Supporting data:
Man City: 40.13 xG (1st) and 70 big chances created (1st), but 44 big chances missed (most in WSL) – they force opposing keepers into 62 saves per season (1st), yet keep leaving chances on the table
Leicester: 43 big chances conceded (worst) but opponents miss 34 of them (most in WSL) – their keeper has made 59 saves (1st), the busiest in the league
Will Leicester’s remarkable big-chance survival rate hold against the sheer volume City produce?
Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 15 Feb, 12:00 PM – Villa Park | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: AVL 48% – 26% draw – 26% TOT
Aston Villa's season is drifting in the wrong direction. Natalia Arroyo's side have lost four of their last five WSL matches, conceding 10 goals across their three most recent defeats alone – to Manchester United (1–4), Everton (1–2) and Liverpool (1–4). They sit eighth on 16 points – enough breathing room from the relegation playoff for now, but not enough to relax. They must treat this as a must-win as a loss will certainly signal a crisis.
Despite losing 0–2 to Chelsea last weekend in front of over 9,000 fans, Tottenham will be coming into this with some belief. Their underlying trajectory remains hugely positive. They will be without Drew Spence, who continues to serve a three-game suspension following her red card at West Ham, however, the January arrivals of Julie Blakstad, Signe Gaupset, Maika Hamano and Hanna Wijk have significantly strengthened the squad.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Historically, this is an evenly contested fixture in the WSL. Across 11 meetings, Villa has won five times to Tottenham’s four, with two draws. The aggregate scoreline reads 19–20 – showing there is little to separate these teams.
The last meeting at Villa Park ended 2–0 to the hosts in May 2025, as Villa won their final five league matches of the season under Arroyo.
The reverse fixture in December saw Tottenham stage a dramatic late comeback, overturning Hanson’s 84th-minute opener with goals from Bethany England (85’) and Holdt in the fifth minute of stoppage time to win 2–1 – after Villa had Océane Deslandes sent off on 65 minutes.
🔎 Key stat to watch
The WSL’s worst set-piece defence faces an aerial-dominant side that thrives from dead balls
Nearly a third of all the xG Aston Villa concede comes from set pieces – the highest rate in the league. Tottenham are strong in the air and generate significant threat from dead-ball situations, creating a mismatch Villa can’t return in kind. With both sides already leaking chances from open play, this fixture could be decided by dead-ball moments.
Supporting data:
Villa’s set-piece vulnerability: 7.42 xG conceded from set plays (worst in WSL), accounting for 29% of their total xG against – they’ve also faced 102 corners against (2nd most)
Spurs’ set-piece threat: 5.75 xG from set plays (4th) backed by a 54.73% aerial duel win rate (3rd) – opponents win just 139 aerials against them (2nd fewest)
Villa can’t retaliate: Only 2.99 set-play xG generated (10th)
Both defend desperately: Spurs make 72 blocks (1st) and Villa 67 (2nd) – the two highest totals in the WSL, suggesting both sides regularly get opened up and rely on last-ditch interventions
Chelsea v Liverpool
Sun 15 Feb, 12:00 PM – Kingsmeadow | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: CHE 77% – 17% draw – 6% LIV
Chelsea’s title defence is effectively over. The 5–1 thrashing by Manchester City two weekends ago left them 11 points behind the leaders. Although they trimmed the gap to eight with a 2–0 win at Tottenham last weekend, overturning City’s lead with only seven matches remaining looks improbable. With the title race all but gone, Chelsea’s focus now turns to securing a UWCL place and navigating a tense Champions League campaign.
Liverpool travel to the capital showing renewed signs of life after a miserable first half of the season. Gareth Taylor’s side went 12 WSL matches without a win before finally breaking through with a 2–1 victory over Tottenham. A 4–1 thrashing of Aston Villa last weekend underlined their revival, and they head into this fixture with confidence.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Chelsea have been very dominant in this fixture. They have won eight of last 12 WSL meetings, drawing two and losing just twice. They have scored 26 goals and conceded just 12 across those encounters – an average of over two goals per game.
Liverpool have recent history of frustrating Chelsea. The reverse fixture in November ended 1–1 at St Helens – Beata Olsson cancelled out Alyssa Thompson’s early opener and the Blues couldn’t find a winner despite their dominance. Chelsea’s record-extending 34-game WSL unbeaten run was intact but wobbling.
That unbeaten run is now broken, and the last team to beat Chelsea in the WSL before this season’s slump was Liverpool themselves, who produced a remarkable 4–3 comeback victory in May 2024.
🔎 Key stat to watch
The WSL’s most dominant possession side meets the one team built to beat them on the deck
Chelsea’s game runs through control on the ground – most passes (7,804, 1st), most possession (59.33%, 1st), most shots in the league (269, 2nd). But they’re the worst team in the WSL at winning ground duels (45.33%, dead last). Liverpool are the best (53.27%, 1st) and win more fouls than anyone (141, 1st) while committing among the fewest (104, 11th).
Supporting data:
Chelsea’s build-up vulnerability: 45.33% ground duel win rate (worst in WSL) despite attempting to play through teams – they force opponents into 506 clearances (most in the league), but that pressure relies on retaining the ball through contact
Liverpool’s disruption profile: 53.27% ground duel win rate (1st) and 141 fouls won (1st) – they win the ball cleanly and draw free kicks when they don’t, breaking the rhythm of possession sides
But can Liverpool punish? Just 13.64 xG (10th), 114 shots (11th), and opposing keepers make only 20 saves against them (fewest in WSL) – they’re equipped to disrupt Chelsea, but struggle to turn turnovers into genuine chances
Will Liverpool’s ground duel superiority disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm enough to matter, or will winning the ball back count for nothing if they can’t convert possession into threat?
Everton v West Ham United
Sun 15 Feb, 12:00 PM – Goodison Park | Sky Sports & YouTube
Win probabilities: EVE 43% – 30% draw – 28% WHU
Everton come into this on the back of two consecutive WSL wins – a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa, which marked their first home league win of the season at Goodison Park, followed by a 1-0 away win at London City last weekend. It’s been a turbulent season for them, but with momentum finally on their side, they’ll see this as a chance to keep the run going.
West Ham travel north after what is likely one of the stories of the WSL this season. Trailing Brighton 2-0 heading into the final ten minutes last Sunday, Rita Guarino’s side scored three times in nine minutes – through Ffion Morgan, Shekiera Martinez and Viviane Asseyi – to complete a remarkable 3-2 comeback. It was the perfect tonic after a turbulent campaign. They will see this as an opportunity to continue the momentum.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
Historically, this is an evenly contested fixture in the WSL. Across 13 meetings, Everton and West Ham have each won five, with three draws. The aggregate scoreline reads 14–14 – an interesting statistical mirror image.
The reverse fixture in November was a pivotal moment for West Ham – their first WSL win of the season. Anouk Denton and Amber Tysiak scored in a dominant first-half display before Shekiera Martinez added a third after the break. Katja Snoeijs grabbed a late consolation for Everton, but the 3-1 defeat was comprehensive.
Both clubs have changed managers since that meeting. Sørensen was in the Everton dugout and Skinner at the West Ham helm when the sides last faced each other. Now Phelan and Guarino take charge of what is effectively a fresh contest between two teams at the beginning of new chapters – and with just three points separating them in the table, the stakes are high.
🔎 Key stat to watch
The two hardest-working defences in the WSL – and the two worst
Everton and West Ham each lead the league in reactive defensive output. West Ham win more tackles (352, 1st), duels (730, 1st), and ground duels (599, 1st) than any other side. Everton make more clearances than anyone (485, 1st) and rank 3rd for both interceptions and blocks. But somehow, both concede exactly 234 shots (joint worst in the WSL) and the two highest xG against totals in the league. They do more than anyone to stop the bleeding – it just doesn’t work.
Supporting data:
West Ham: 28.97 xG conceded (worst in WSL) despite leading the league in tackles, duels won, and ground duels won – they fight for everything and still get overrun
Everton: 28.39 xG conceded (2nd worst) despite 485 clearances (1st) and 146 interceptions (3rd) – they clear danger constantly but it keeps coming back
When both defences this busy and this exposed, does the team that wins more tackles prevail, or does the team that makes more clearances survive?
Manchester United v London City Lionesses
Sun 15 Feb, 12:00 PM – Leigh Sports Village | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: MNU 69% – 21% draw – 10% LCL
Manchester United are very fine form. They have now won five consecutive matches across all competitions, stretching their unbeaten run to nine, and sit second in the table on 31 points – eight behind leaders Manchester City. This fixture falls between the two legs of their Champions League knockout playoff against Atletico Madrid – so rotation is inevitable.
London City Lionesses’ recent results have been mixed. Since Eder Maestre took over, he has overseen one win, one draw and two defeats in the league. A creative block in the final third has been the main concern – they scored only once in their first four matches under Maestre before a narrow 2-1 win over Brighton was followed by a narrow 0-1 loss at home to Everton last weekend.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
There is only one previous WSL meeting between these sides, and it was emphatic. Manchester United thrashed London City 5-1 at Hayes Lane in September in just the Lionesses’ second ever top-flight match.
London City have evolved considerably since then – six wins and 19 points reflect a team that has learned to compete at this level.
🔎 Key stat to watch
The WSL’s most aggressive pressing side, and the cost of fouling a possession team
London City are the league’s top ball-winners – more interceptions than anyone (157, 1st), the second-most tackles (315) and duels won (724). But that intensity comes at a price: 140 fouls committed (2nd most) and 24 yellow cards (2nd most). Against Manchester United’s pass-heavy build-up (7,609 passes, 2nd in WSL), every foul hands United a chance to reset and reload in dangerous areas. Also, when opponents do break through London City’s press, they often punish them – 58% of big chances against them are converted, the worst rate in the league.
Supporting data:
London City’s disruption: 157 interceptions (1st), 315 tackles (2nd), 724 duels won (2nd) – no side in the WSL works harder to win the ball back
The discipline problem: 140 fouls committed (2nd) and 24 yellow cards (2nd) – against Man United’s 7,609 passes (2nd) and 56.73% average possession (3rd), those fouls gift possession straight back to a side built to recycle it
When the press breaks: Opponents convert 58% of big chances against London City (worst in WSL) – Man United create 42 big chances this season (3rd), so any lapse could be fatal
Brighton v Arsenal
Sun 15 Feb, 2:30 PM – Broadfield Stadium | BBC
Win probabilities: BHA 10% – 27% draw – 63% ARS
Brighton’s season has taken a difficult turn. They have lost four of their last five WSL matches and slipped to seventh on 17 points. The 3-2 defeat at West Ham last weekend was particularly painful, while a home loss to London City Lionesses the week before compounded the slide.
Arsenal arrive on the south coast riding a wave of momentum. Renée Slegers’ side have won five of their last five matches across all competitions, a run that includes a 2-0 win away at champions Chelsea, victory in the inaugural FIFA Women’s Champions Cup final against Corinthians, a superb 1-0 win over WSL leaders Manchester City at the Emirates and a dominant 4–0 win in the first leg of their Champions League knockout playoff against OH Leuven. With the UWCL tie done almost in the first leg, Arsenal can go full throttle against Brighton.
Head-to-Head Analysis (WSL)
This is one of the most lopsided records in the WSL. Arsenal have won 14 of 15 meetings, scoring 52 goals and conceding just six – an average scoreline of roughly 3-0 per match.
Brighton’s sole victory came last season at this very ground, a stunning 4-2 win in May 2025.
The reverse fixture at the Emirates was very tight, it ended 1-0 to the Arsenal through an Olislagers own goal.
🔎 Key stat to watch
A defence that never has to defend – and the one team equipped to force it
Arsenal have the best defensive record in the WSL by every major metric (11.27 xG against, 111 shots faced, 35 corners conceded – all 1st). But there’s an interesting catch: they also make the fewest blocks (27, last), fewest clearances (193, last), fewest tackles (216, last), and fewest interceptions (106, last) in the league. Arsenal don’t defend – they just prevent. Brighton’s aerial dominance is the kind of weapon that can bypass possession control entirely, and Arsenal are vulnerable in that area.
Supporting data:
Arsenal’s prevention model: Dead last in blocks, clearances, tackles, and interceptions – they suffocate opponents with 59.21% possession (2nd) and 7,448 passes (3rd), so they rarely need to defend at all
Brighton’s aerial route: 58.13% aerial duel win rate (best in WSL) – opponents win just 117 aerials against them (fewest in the league). Arsenal lose 52.79% of aerial duels to opponents (4th worst), making the air the clearest route past the possession wall
Can Brighton use their aerial superiority to force Arsenal into the kind of reactive defending they almost never have to do?
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
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Interesting tension in today’s Villa–Spurs preview. The qualitative analysis leans toward Tottenham, yet the win probabilities give Villa almost double the chance (48% vs 26%).
Really shows how narrative reacts quickly to form and trajectory. Models move more slowly, they account for baseline performance levels, home advantage, and regression to the mean. Villa’s recent defensive numbers are bad. But predictive systems don’t assume those extremes will continue indefinitely, they expect some stabilisation.