2025–26 WSL Matchweek 15 Preview & Predictions
A top-of-the-table clash at the Emirates headlines this weekend’s action; Spurs eye Chelsea H2H upset; United track leaders; LCL face shaky Everton; Liverpool-Villa looks tight; Brighton face Hammers.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 15 delivers another clash of the season: Arsenal vs Manchester City at the Emirates, where the newly-crowned world champions host the runaway league leaders. City (1st, 39 pts) have been virtually untouchable – 13 wins from 14 – and arrive off a statement 5–1 demolition of Chelsea. Arsenal, returning from their FIFA Women’s Champions Cup triumph, sit on 26 points and will view this as a must-win to keep pace with the top three.
Behind them, the race for Champions League places is delicately poised. Manchester United (2nd, 28 pts) travel to Leicester with a chance to maintain pressure on City, while Chelsea (3rd, 27 pts) face Tottenham (5th, 26 pts) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – where Spurs could leapfrog them into third with a win.
Mid-table is bunched: London City Lionesses (6th, 19 pts), Brighton (7th, 17 pts) and Aston Villa (8th, 16 pts) are all in action against teams around them.
At the bottom, pressure is intense – Liverpool (12th, 7 pts), West Ham (11th, 8 pts) and Leicester (10th, 9 pts) are separated by just two points, and relegation anxiety is real. Liverpool vs Aston Villa and West Ham vs Brighton both carry significant stakes for survival.
On the model predictions, Chelsea are heavy favourites away at Spurs (71%), while Manchester United (62%) and Brighton (56%) are also expected to collect three points. The Emirates showdown is the tightest at the top – Arsenal hold a narrow edge at home (49%). Liverpool vs Aston Villa is the hardest to call (31% – 38% – 31%), a genuine coin-flip between two inconsistent sides.
Match by Match Preview
Leicester City v Manchester United
Sat 07 Feb, 12:00 PM – King Power Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: LEI 12% – 26% draw – 62% MUN
Leicester City enter this one desperately needing points. A 2–1 defeat to West Ham United last time out – followed by a postponed trip to Arsenal Women – has left them 10th on 9 points from 13 games, with the bottom of the table uncomfortably close.
Manchester United Women arrive with momentum and a clear incentive to be ruthless – they’re second on 28 points, but still 11 behind leaders Manchester City. They come off a 3–1 win over Liverpool that made it four straight wins in all competitions.
Head-to-head in the WSL tilts heavily in United’s favour: Leicester have 0 wins from 9 meetings (1 draw, 8 United wins), with an aggregate score of 3–23. History is firmly on United’s side.
🔍 Key stat to watch
United’s relentless pressure meets Leicester’s keeper-dependent defence
Manchester United excel at creating the kind of chaotic, multi-phase attacks that force emergency defending, and Leicester concede more big chances than anyone while relying heavily on their goalkeeper to bail them out. If United can keep applying wave-after-wave pressure, the law of averages suggests they will eventually break Leicester down.
Supporting data:
Man United: Force 400 clearances (4th in the league, 23% above average) and 64 blocks (also 4th, 29% above average), allowing them to win second balls and quickly recycle possession in dangerous areas.
Leicester: Have conceded 42 big chances (the most in the WSL), yet their xG against is only 20.71 (7th-best in the league), highlighting how often they allow opponents clear-cut opportunities.
Leicester’s lifeline: 55 saves (most in WSL) and a 2.66 save-to-xG ratio (2nd highest). Their keeper is overperforming to keep scorelines respectable.
Can Leicester’s goalkeeper hold their exceptional save rate under United’s relentless attacking cycles? Or will the sheer volume of big chances finally overwhelm them? The team that controls the “next action” after clearances and blocks likely wins this one.
London City Lionesses v Everton
Sun 08 Feb, 12:00 PM – CopperJax Community Stadium | Sky Sports | YouTube
Win probabilities: LCL 49% – 32% draw – 19% EVE
London City Lionesses come into this sitting 6th on 19 points – and a chance to keep building separation from the bottom half. They were 2–1 winners over Brighton last weekend.
Everton arrive in far more turbulent circumstances. They’re 9th on 11 points, just three wins in 14 league matches, and the club just announced the sacking of their manager Brian Sørensen. They did get a lift from a 2–1 comeback win over Aston Villa last weekend, but the broader picture is still pressure.
Head-to-head in the WSL is limited to just one meeting, which went London City’s way. They lead the series 1–0–0, with a 2–1 advantage on goals.
🔍 Key stat to watch
Two pressing teams with leaky defences in an open-play chaos game
Both teams excel at winning the ball high (London City: 147 interceptions, 1st; Everton: 140, 3rd) but struggle to defend when possession turns over. This creates the conditions for a high-tempo, end-to-end match with lots of turnovers and big chances.
Supporting data:
Everton: 27.20 xG conceded (2nd worst), with 21.21 from open play (worst in WSL, 78% of total)
London City: 23.49 xG conceded (5th worst) and 86 corners against (4th most) – they’re also vulnerable when defending
Both press aggressively: Everton 140 interceptions (3rd), London City 147 (1st) – but both struggle to convert ball-winning into sustained possession
Can either team sustain defensive shape after winning possession, or will turnovers lead straight to counter-attacking chances?
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Sun 08 Feb, 12:00 PM – Totally Wicked Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: LIV 31% – 38% draw – 31% AVL
Liverpool come into this still fighting to climb off the foot of the table – 12th on 7 points. Their first league win finally arrived via a dramatic late 2–0 over Tottenham, but they were brought back down to earth last weekend with a 3–1 defeat away to Manchester United.
Aston Villa sit 8th on 16 points and the theme has been volatility – capable of strong days, but with some heavy swings in their results. They arrive off a 2–1 loss at Everton last weekend.
Head-to-head in the WSL is finely balanced: across seven meetings, Liverpool and Aston Villa have each recorded three wins, with one draw separating them, and Liverpool edging the goals 12–11.
🔍 Key stat to watch
Villa’s attacking edge meets their set-piece vulnerability – but Liverpool can’t exploit it
Aston Villa are significantly better attackers (18.5 xG, 6th) than Liverpool (12.10 xG, 10th, 40% below league average). Villa should control chances and territory. But Villa leak the most set-piece xG in the league (6.99) – and Liverpool win the fewest corners (41) and create little set-piece threat (2.73 xG, 10th). Villa’s biggest weakness won’t matter.
Supporting data:
Villa attack: 18.47 xG (6th), 173 shots (5th), 28 big chances (7th) – solid attacking output
Liverpool attack: 12.10 xG (10th), 103 shots (11th) – struggling to create
Villa’s achilles heel: 6.99 set-piece xG against (worst), 97 corners conceded (2nd most)
Liverpool’s missed opportunity: 41 corners won (joint-fewest), 2.73 set-piece xG (10th) – can’t exploit Villa’s weakness
Can Liverpool defend well enough to compensate for their attacking struggles?
West Ham United vs Brighton
Sun 08 Feb, 12:00 PM – Chigwell Construction Stadium | Sky Sports | YouTube
Win probabilities: WHU 15% – 29% draw – 56% BHA
West Ham United head into this under real pressure – they’re 11th on 8 points from 14 games, just one point above bottom. They also arrive off a 2–1 defeat to Tottenham, so this feels like another “must-find-a-result” afternoon at the Chigwell Construction Stadium.
Brighton’s position is far calmer, but their form still swings – they’re 7th on 17 points. Their last six matches in the WSL reads like a heartbeat. They were beaten 2–1 by London City Lionesses last weekend, so a response is crucial if they want to remain in the top half.
Head-to-head in the WSL slightly favours Brighton: across 15 meetings, West Ham have 5 wins and 1 draw, while Brighton have 9 victories, with an aggregate score of 26–18 to Brighton.
🔍 Key stat to watch
Brighton’s clinical finishing vs West Ham’s defensive chaos
West Ham concede more shots than anyone in the WSL (226) and bleed the most xG (28.53). Brighton convert their chances efficiently – 19.1 xG from just 161 shots (0.119 per shot, above league average). When a team that can’t defend meets one that doesn’t waste opportunities, scorelines can get ugly.
Supporting data:
West Ham: 226 shots conceded (worst), 28.53 xG against (worst), 41 big chances conceded (2nd most) – they’re under siege constantly
Brighton: 119 shots inside box (5th), 31 big chances created (5th), 19.1 xG from 161 shots – quality over quantity
Possession battle: West Ham average just 41.7% possession (11th) with 406 clearances (2nd most) – they spend entire matches defending
Can West Ham limit the volume of chances in the box, or will Brighton’s patient buildup eventually find the gaps?
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Sun 08 Feb, 02:00 PM – Emirates Stadium | Sky Sports
Win probabilities: ARS 49% – 27% draw – 24% MCI
Arsenal come into this riding a confidence wave – they were just crowned world champions and the weekend before landed a statement 2–0 win away to Chelsea. They will view this as a must win to maintain distance with the top 3, having missed out of action weekend.
City arrive as the benchmark team in the league right now – 1st on 39 points (13 wins from 14) with the best attack (41 goals scored) and a winning run that’s starting to sniff record territory. They just put five past Chelsea last weekend, so confidence is sky high.
Head-to-head in the WSL is tight: Arsenal have 8 wins, Manchester City 7, with 2 draws from 17 meetings and a narrow 30–28 goals advantage in Arsenal’s favour.
🔍 Key stats to watch
Both sides excel at generating the kind of sequences that keep defenders permanently facing their own goal.
Arsenal: opponents have made 463 clearances vs Arsenal (2nd most, +42% above league average) and 72 blocks vs Arsenal (2nd most blocks against, +45% above average)
Manchester City: opponents have made 426 clearances vs City (3rd most, +31% above average) and 74 blocks vs City (most blocks against, +49% above average)
Corner volume follows that pattern: City 111 (2nd) – ~60% above league average, Arsenal 103 (3rd) – ~49% above league average of 69.
Both teams also have elite defensive organisations. Arsenal concede just 10.88 xG (best in league), City 12.02 xG (2nd best).
Can Arsenal’s possession-heavy approach (59.9%, 1st in league) keep City pinned back enough to avoid extended periods defending in their own box? Or will City’s superior shot volume (210 shots inside box vs Arsenal’s 174) eventually force the kind of chaotic defending Arsenal rarely have to deal with? The team that cracks first under sustained pressure likely loses this match.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea
Sun 08 Feb, 02:25 PM – Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | BBC
Win probabilities: TOT 13% – 16% draw – 71% CHE
Tottenham Hotspur come into this with a genuine Champions League angle – they’re 5th on 26 points, just one point off Chelsea in 3rd, so a win for Tottenham would flip the top-three race immediately. They also arrive off a confidence-boosting 2–1 comeback win away to West Ham.
Chelsea, on the other hand, need a response – not just for pride but for their league position. They risk slipping into 5th if they lose on Sunday and results go in favour of their top-three rivals. They are also coming off a low point in their season after a heavy 5–1 defeat to City last weekend.
Head-to-head in the WSL is as one-sided as it gets: Tottenham 0 wins, 0 draws, 12 losses against Chelsea, with a goal difference of 7–28. History is firmly on Chelsea’s side, and Tottenham have a steep mountain to climb if they are to break that pattern.
🔍 Key stat to watch:
Chelsea’s inside-box aggression vs Spurs’ block-heavy defence
Chelsea force the issue in the penalty area more than almost anyone, with 170 shots inside the box (3rd) and 70 of those efforts blocked (2nd). Tottenham, meanwhile, lead the league in blocks (67), setting up a clash between an aggressively attacking side and a defence that thrives on last-ditch interventions.
Supporting data:
Chelsea: 170 shots inside box (3rd), 30.23 xG (2nd), 70 blocked shots (2nd) – they’re relentless at getting shots off in traffic
Tottenham: 67 blocks made (1st in WSL), but concede 135 shots inside the box (5th most) and 23.96 xG (4th most)
The team that wins the “second action” – rebounds, loose balls, blocks – likely wins this match.
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
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