2025–26 WSL Matchweek 13 Preview & Predictions
Chelsea–Arsenal headlines a round where Manchester City are the standout favourite, Brighton and United have the edge away, and three fixtures look set for fine margins.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
This round brings a tight top-end and a headline that can reshape the chase: Chelsea (2nd, 27 pts) vs Arsenal (3rd, 23 pts). Manchester City still set the pace (1st, 33 pts), but with Spurs (4th, 23 pts) and Manchester United (5th, 22 pts) right behind, any slip by Chelsea or Arsenal pulls more teams into the top UWCL conversation.
Mid-table is squeezed too: Aston Villa (6th, 16 pts) and London City (7th, 16 pts) are level, with Brighton (8th, 14 pts) close enough to join that cluster with one result. At the bottom, pressure is acute – Liverpool (12th, 4 pts) face another tough task, while Leicester (9th, 9 pts) vs West Ham (11th, 5 pts) has genuine six-pointer energy.
On our model predictions, City are the standout favourite away at London City (72%), United is also favoured at Villa (50%), while Leicester vs West Ham is even (35% – 30% – 35). The highest draw probabilities sit around the derby and mid-table games – Chelsea vs Arsenal (30%) and Liverpool vs Spurs (31%) – with Brighton carrying the strongest lean at Goodison Park (48% away).
Match by Match Preview
Everton vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Fri 23 Jan, 07:00 PM | Goodison Park | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: EVE 24% – 28% draw – 48% BHA
Everton come into this after a 5–0 win away at West Bromwich Albion Women in the FA Cup fourth round. That cup result should lift confidence, but their most recent WSL outings were defeats to Manchester City (0–2) and Arsenal (1–3).
Brighton travel to Goodison Park after a 2–0 home win over Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup fourth round. In the WSL, however, their last two league matches ended in defeats. 1–2 away at Aston Villa and 0–3 at home to Chelsea, so the key for the Seagulls is carrying their cup control back into league performance.
Key numbers
Everton: 10th (8 pts) | Form: L–L–W–L–L | xG 9.4 / xGA 24.9 / xGD -15.5 (-1.29 per match) | Squad value: €1.590m
Brighton & Hove Albion: 8th (14 pts) | Form: L–L–W–W–D | xG 16.6 / xGA 15.4 / xGD +1.3 (+0.11 per match) | Squad value: €1.80m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Brighton lead the series – but the goals are almost level. Brighton 7 wins – Draws 4 – Everton 4 wins, but the aggregate goals are Brighton 23 – Everton 22.
No draws in the last 7 meetings – Brighton 5 wins – Everton 2 wins.
Brighton’s edge is built on fine margins – 6 of Brighton’s 7 wins in this matchup are by exactly one goal (1–0 or 2–1 type wins).
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Brighton’s aerial edge vs Everton’s aerial problem
Everton are conceding a lot of delivery (crosses and corners) – and they’re also the WSL’s weakest side in the air. Brighton don’t need to overplay it. If they keep putting quality balls into “header zones”, they have a very good chance.
The numbers:
Everton: Aerial Win % 40.2% (12th – worst) | Aerial duels won 78 (12th – worst)
Everton: Crosses faced 273 (12th – most) | Corners conceded 88 (12th – most)
Brighton: Aerial Win % 58.8% (1st – best)
Brighton: Cross accuracy 27.5% (4th) – good enough quality to make that aerial edge count
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Sat 24 Jan, 12:30 PM | Stamford Bridge | BBC
Model win probabilities: CHE 38% – 30% draw – 32% ARS
Chelsea come into this after a 1–0 win away at Manchester City in the League Cup semi-final. That result extends a strong all-competitions run that also includes big-scoring wins over Crystal Palace (5–0) and West Ham (5–0), so confidence should be high heading into this clash at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal travel to Stamford Bridge after a 0–1 home defeat to Manchester United in the League Cup semi-final. In league play they have been hard to break down, including a 0–0 draw with Manchester United. They will, however, want more cutting edge in the final third in this clash.
Key numbers
Chelsea: 2nd (27 pts) | Form: W–W–L–D–D | xG 27.0 / xGA 11.2 / xGD +15.9 (+1.32 per match) | Squad value: €11.22m
Arsenal: 3rd (23 pts) | Form: D–W–W–D–D | xG 24.5 / xGA 9.0 / xGD +15.5 (+1.29 per match) | Squad value: €10.635m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Chelsea edge in the rivalry – across the last 17 WSL meetings, it’s Chelsea 9 wins – 5 draws – Arsenal 3 wins.
This fixture regularly delivers goals and “both teams to score” – 52 total goals across those 17 games (3.06 per match), with BTTS in 12 of 17 (71%).
Stamford Bridge has flipped since Arsenal’s famous 5–0 win in October 2018. Since then, Chelsea are unbeaten at home in the league head-to-head: 4 wins, 1 draw.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Chelsea generate corners at a very high rate – Arsenal concede them at the lowest rate
Corners are one of Chelsea’s most reliable sources of pressure. They generate them relentlessly; Arsenal almost never give them away. Whoever wins that territory battle – forcing blocks and defending wide areas cleanly – will shape the rhythm of the game.
The numbers:
Chelsea: Corners won 103 (1st) | 8.6 per game (1st)
Arsenal: Corners conceded 25 (fewest) | 2.1 per game (fewest)
Chelsea: Long-range shots 68 (1st) – often a “corner generator” via blocks/saves
Arsenal: Long-range shots faced 29 + Crosses faced 100 (fewest) – they rarely allow the situations Chelsea thrive on
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Sun 25 Jan, 11:55 AM | Villa Park | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: AST 25% – 25% draw – 50% MUN
Aston Villa come into this after a 2–0 defeat away at Arsenal in the FA Cup fourth round. In WSL play, they have been volatile lately – a 2–1 win over Brighton and a 3–0 home win over Liverpool have been offset by heavy losses to Manchester City (1–6) and Tottenham (1–2) – so this is another big test of their defensive resilience against elite opposition.
Manchester United travel to Villa Park after a 1–0 win at Arsenal in the League Cup semi-final. That result continues a strong all-competitions run, including a 5–0 win over Burnley FC Women, a 2–1 win over Tottenham, and a 1–0 win away at Juventus – and they will look to bring that control and efficiency into a tricky away league fixture.
Key numbers
Aston Villa: 6th (16 pts) | Form: W–L–W–L–L | xG 16.5 / xGA 21.2 / xGD -4.7 (-0.39 per match) | Squad value: €2.690m
Manchester United: 5th (22 pts) | Form: D–D–W–L–L | xG 23.2 / xGA 16.0 / xGD +7.3 (+0.61 per match) | Squad value: €7.995m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Manchester United’s overall dominance – 8W–2D–1L from 11 WSL meetings, with an aggregate score of 26–5.
Villa’s only win is the most recent – Aston Villa were winless in the first 10 H2Hs (D2 L8), then won 1–0 at Old Trafford in the latest meeting.
Villa have failed to score in 7 of 11 (64%), and both teams have scored only 3 times (27%).
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Villa’s set-play vulnerability vs United’s delivery
Villa are conceding set-play danger at a league-high rate – and they’re also allowing plenty of the raw material that creates it (corners). United don’t need to be perfect in open play if they can repeatedly force corners and wide free-kicks, then make Villa defend second phases.
The numbers:
Aston Villa: Set-play xG against 6.23 (highest) | Set-play xGA share 29.4% (highest)
Aston Villa: Corners conceded 82 (11th – second-most)
Man United: Aerial duels 266 (2nd) | Crosses attempted 221 (4th)
Man United: Long-ball accuracy 45.0% (3rd) – another route to chaotic defending and set plays
London City Lionesses vs Manchester City
Sun 25 Jan, 11:55 AM | CopperJax Community Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: LCL 10% – 18% draw – 72% MCI
London City Lionesses come into this fixture after a 1–0 win away at Sunderland in the FA Cup fourth round. That result should lift belief, but their recent WSL form has been mixed – a 0–0 draw at Liverpool has been followed by narrow defeats to Leicester (0–1) and Brighton (0–1), so the key task here is turning competitive performances into points against the league’s most explosive attack.
Manchester City arrive after a 0–1 defeat to Chelsea in the League Cup semi-final – their second loss of the season, and once again against the same opponent. City’s response will be the storyline: before that setback they were in full flow, including a 2–0 win over Everton and heavy wins over West Ham (5–1) and AFC Bournemouth Women (6–0), so they will be determined to reassert control and tempo immediately.
Key numbers (WSL)
London City Lionesses: 7th (16 pts) | Form: D–L–L–W–W | xG 16.0 / xGA 20.0 / xGD -4.0 (-0.33 per match) | Squad value: €2.780m
Manchester City: 1st (33 pts) | Form: W–W–W–W–W | xG 33.6 / xGA 9.2 / xGD +24.5 (+2.04 per match) | Squad value: €8.490m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
The first-ever meeting finished Manchester City 4–1 London City Lionesses.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: London City lead the league for interceptions – Manchester City live in the box
City’s attack is built on relentless pressure in prime areas, repeatedly getting shots off from inside the box. London City’s best route is to disrupt the supply line early – win it, break the first wave, and counter into space before City can reset. If London City can turn interceptions into quick transitions, they can create chances without needing long spells of possession.
The numbers:
London City: Interceptions 126 (1st) | Tackles 240 (4th) – they hunt turnovers
Man City: Shots inside the box 181 (1st) – constant pressure in dangerous areas
Man City: Passes in opponent half 2,376 (4th) – plenty of actions in high-risk territory if the ball is nicked
Man City: Big chances missed 38 (1st) – they can be wasteful, so London City’s job is to keep the volume of box pressure manageable
Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 25 Jan, 11:55 AM | Totally Wicked | Sky Sports and Barclays WSL YouTube
Model win probabilities: LIV 30% – 31% draw – 39% TOT
Liverpool come into this after a 6–0 win away at London Bees in the FA Cup fourth round. That cup result should provide a confidence boost, but their WSL form remains a concern – yet to record a win after 12 games. Their recent 0–0 draw with London City Lionesses and a 2–2 draw at West Ham have been mixed with heavy defeats to Chelsea (1–9) and Aston Villa (0–3).
Tottenham Hotspur travel to St Helens after a 3–0 home win over Leicester City in the FA Cup fourth round. In the league, Spurs have shown they can be competitive against strong opposition – drawing 3–3 at Manchester United and beating Aston Villa 2–1.
Key numbers (WSL)
Liverpool: 12th (4 pts) | Form: D–D–L–L–D | xG 8.4 / xGA 17.1 / xGD -8.7 (-0.73 per match) | Squad value: €3.345m
Tottenham Hotspur: 4th (23 pts) | Form: W–D–W–D–L | xG 14.7 / xGA 20.7 / xGD -6.1 (-0.51 per match) | Squad value: €3.270m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
Tottenham have the overall H2H edge – 3 wins to Liverpool’s 2 (with 3 draws) across the 8 WSL meetings shown.
Always tight: All 8 WSL meetings were either draws or decided by 1 goal.
Spurs always score: Tottenham have scored in all 8 H2Hs – meaning Liverpool have 0 clean sheets against Spurs across this run.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: Spurs live in ground duels – Liverpool win them when they happen
Spurs turn matches into contests of volume – lots of tackles, lots of ground duels, lots of momentum swings. Liverpool’s profile is the opposite: they don’t get dragged into constant ground-duel chaos, but when duels do happen, they tend to win them. If Liverpool can keep Spurs chasing – and force the game into rushed clearances and broken phases rather than repeated tackle-and-duel chains – they can blunt one of Spurs’ biggest levers.
The numbers:
Liverpool: Ground duel win % 52.8% (2nd) | Ground duels total 725 (12th – fewest)
Spurs: Ground duels total 926 (2nd-most) | Ground duel win % 48.6% (10th)
Liverpool: Tackles faced 178 (fewest) – opponents don’t get many “clean tackle” moments against them
Liverpool: Clearances forced 190 (most) – they can push teams into rushed actions rather than sustained duel sequences
Leicester City vs West Ham United
Sun 25 Jan, 11:55 AM | King Power Stadium | Sky Sports and Barclays WSL YouTube
Model win probabilities: LEI 35% – 30% draw – 35% WHU
Leicester City come into this after a 3–0 defeat away at Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup fourth round. In the WSL, their recent run has been rough – defeats to Spurs (0–1), Manchester City (0–3) and a narrow 1–0 win over London City Lionesses – so this home game has real six-pointer energy.
West Ham United travel to the King Power after a 3–0 win away at Newcastle United in the FA Cup fourth round. Their last WSL match was the 0–5 defeat at Chelsea, and the league form around it has been mixed – a 2–2 draw with Liverpool but heavy losses to Manchester City (1–5) and Manchester United (1–2) – so the priority is to translate that cup control into a tighter league performance.
Key numbers
Leicester City: 9th (9 pts) | Form: L–W–L–L–D | xG 7.9 / xGA 20.2 / xGD -12.3 (-1.03 per match) | Squad value: €1.205m
West Ham United: 11th (5 pts) | Form: L–D–L–W–D | xG 12.2 / xGA 25.3 / xGD -13.1 (-1.09 per match) | Squad value: €1.755m
Head-to-head (WSL only)
West Ham has the overall H2H edge: across the last nine WSL meetings there are 4 wins for West Ham – 3 draws – 2 Leicester.
A draw is almost always 1–1: all three draws in this 9 matchups finished 1–1.
Home split: at home, Leicester have had the better of this match-up – 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat in the last four home H2Hs, and they’ve scored in all four.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch: The “long-ball derby” – 1st vs 2nd for long balls played
This is likely to be the weekend’s second-balls matchup. Leicester don’t want a slow territory game – they go direct and compete for knockdowns. West Ham also play direct, and they’re used to dealing with opponents going direct against them. The team that wins the messy middle third – the second balls, the tackles, the recoveries – is likely to control the game state.
The numbers:
Leicester: Long balls played 693 (most) | Long-ball accuracy 34.9% (11th) – quantity over precision
West Ham: Long balls played 664 (2nd) | Long balls faced 638 (most)
Leicester: Aerial duels 291 (most) | Aerial win % 42.6% (11th)
West Ham: Tackles 286 (most) – if Leicester’s long balls aren’t clean, West Ham can feast on the knockdowns
Data sources
Predictions: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
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