2025–26 WSL Matchweek 12 Preview & Predictions
A top-four clash at the Emirates headlines a round where City and Chelsea are overwhelming favourites, while Villa–Brighton and Spurs–Leicester look set for fine margins.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
Matchweek 12 returns with the title picture tightening at the top: Manchester City lead the way (1st, 30 pts), chased by Chelsea (2nd, 24), Arsenal (3rd, 22) and Manchester United (4th, 21). The headline is Arsenal vs Manchester United, a direct top-four meeting where a swing result can reshape the chasing pack.
Behind them, Tottenham (5th, 20 pts) are trying to keep contact with the Champions League places, while London City Lionesses (6th, 15), Brighton (7th, 14) and Aston Villa (8th, 13) are clustered in a mid-table squeeze.
At the bottom end, Liverpool (12th, 3 pts), West Ham United (11th, 5) and Everton (10th, 8) all face difficult tests against elite opposition, while Leicester City (9th, 9) are searching for consistency as the table begins to stretch.
On the model, the heaviest favourites are Manchester City (91%), Chelsea (82%), Arsenal (58%). The tightest pricing is reserved for Aston Villa vs Brighton, Tottenham Hotspur vs Leicester City, where the probabilities cluster closer to a one-goal game.
Match by Match Preview
Arsenal vs Manchester United
Sat 10 Jan, 12:30 PM | Emirates Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: ARS 58% – 26% draw – 16% MUN
The Big Story: This is HUGE. Two giants fighting for Champions League football, separated by just one point.
Arsenal come into this after a comfortable 0–2 away win over Crystal Palace, with a clean sheet in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. They will be looking to build on that control and keep things tight at home this weekend.
Manchester United travel for this after a 2–1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. They will be looking to build on that momentum after some shaky performances in recent weeks.
Key numbers
Arsenal: 3rd (22 pts) | Form: W–W–D–D–W | xG 21.7 / xGA 8.6 / xGD +13.1 (+1.19 per match) | Squad value: €10.510m
Manchester United: 4th (21 pts) | Form: D–W–L–L–W | xG 22.8 / xGA 13.2 / xGD +9.6 (+0.88 per match) | Squad value: €7.745m
Head-to-head: Last 12 WSL meetings — Arsenal 5 wins, draws 4, Manchester United 3; goals 18–13.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
United create big chances like title challengers – Arsenal allow shots like title challengers.
Why this matters: This is a clash of strengths in a non-obvious place: United’s chance creation vs Arsenal’s shot suppression. United may not get many looks at the Emirates – so their decision-making on the few they do get becomes absolutely crucial.
Man Utd: Big Chances Created 33 (2nd in WSL) | Shots Per Game 14.9 (4th)
Arsenal: Shots Faced 81 (1st - fewest) | Shots Faced Per Game 6.8 (1st)
🔍 Key players to watch
Arsenal – Beth Mead
Beth Mead comes into this one as Arsenal’s most in-form creator – she leads the Gunners for league assists (4) and is producing steady chance volume (13 chances created in the WSL so far this season), giving Renée Slegers a wide forward who keeps Arsenal’s attack ticking even when she isn’t on the scoresheet. In her last 4 appearances for Arsenal across all competitions, she has been involved in 3 goals (2 goals 1 assist).
Manchester United – Fridolina Rolfö
Fridolina Rolfö comes into this trip to the Emirates as United’s momentum-shifter: a late brace to rescue a 3 – 3 draw against Spurs, then a goal and an assist in the 2 – 1 League Cup win over the same opponents, underlining her knack for game-changing contributions in decisive moments. Across her last three appearances, she’s delivered 3 goals and 2 assists.
Most likely scorelines: 2–0, 1–0, 1–1.
Manchester City vs Everton
Sun 12 Jan, 12:00 PM | Joie Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: MCI 91% – 7% draw – 2% EVE
Manchester City come into this after a thumping 1–5 away win over West Ham United, with a big attacking statement in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. They will be aiming to keep the pressure on and bring the same sharpness at home this weekend.
Everton travel for this after a 1–3 home defeat to Arsenal in the WSL on 13 December 2025. They will be looking to bounce back quickly but against a city side that simply doesn’t know how to stop winning, it looks like mission impossible.
Key numbers
Manchester City: 1st (30 pts) | Form: W–W–W–W–W | xG 29.4 / xGA 8.8 / xGD +20.5 (+1.87 per match) | Squad value: €8.040m
Everton: 10th (8 pts) | Form: L–W–L–L–D | xG 9 / xGA 20.6 / xGD -11.6 (-1.05 per match) | Squad value: €1.560m
Head-to-head: Last 17 WSL meetings — Manchester City 15 wins, draws 1, Everton 1; goals 44–13.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
City are the league’s #1 set-piece threat, facing an Everton team that’s conceded the 2nd most set-piece danger.
Why this matters: If Everton’s game plan is to park the bus and survive City’s waves of attack, they can’t afford to give away “cheap” set pieces. City have turned corners and free kicks into an art form this season.
Man City: Set Piece xG For 6.81 (1st of 12)
Everton: Set Piece xG Against 5.51 (2nd worst of 12)
Everton: Corners Conceded 75 | 6.3 per game (11th of 12)
🔍 Key players to watch
Manchester City – Khadija “Bunny” Shaw
If City are going to turn control into a blowout, it usually runs through Shaw. She’s the league’s top scorer with 12 goals after 11 games and the one most likely to finish the crosses and cut-backs that come from City pinning teams in. Give her volume in the box and she’ll do the rest.
Everton – Toni Payne
For Everton, Payne is the “form and transition” pick right now. She created the winner at Chelsea (assist in the 1 – 0 upset), then followed it with a goal and an assist in the 3 – 1 League Cup win over Newcastle – 3 direct goal involvements across those two statement results.
Most likely scorelines: 3–0, 4–0, 2–0.
Aston Villa vs Brighton
Sun 12 Jan, 02:00 PM | Villa Park | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: AVL 46% – 28% draw – 26% BHA
Aston Villa come into this after a heavy 6–1 away defeat to Manchester City. They will be looking to restore some defensive order at home this weekend.
Brighton travel for this after a 0–3 home defeat to Chelsea in the WSL on 14 December 2025. They will want a response and to put that setback behind them on their travels this weekend.
Key numbers
Aston Villa: 8th (13 pts) | Form: L–W–L–L–W | xG 15.9 / xGA 19.7 / xGD -3.8 (-0.35 per match) | Squad value: €2.175m
Brighton: 7th (14 pts) | Form: L–W–W–D–L | xG 15.2 / xGA 14.8 / xGD +0.4 (+0.03 per match) | Squad value: €2.180m
Head-to-head: Last 11 WSL meetings – Aston Villa 6 wins, draws 2, Brighton 3; goals 17–11.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
Villa concede the most corners and the most set-piece danger in the league.
Why this matters: Brighton don’t need to dominate possession or create flowing moves – they just need to win corners and free kicks. Villa have been the WSL’s most “set-piece punishable” team all season, and Brighton know exactly how to exploit that weakness.
The numbers:
Aston Villa: Corners Conceded 79 (most in WSL) | Set Piece xG Against 6.08 (worst)
Brighton: Corners Won 52 (5th best)
🔍 Key players to watch
Aston Villa – Kirsty Hanson
Kirsty Hanson comes into this one as Villa’s main open‑play endpoint, with 3 goals in her last 5 appearances. She is their leading league scorer with 5 goals and also has the second‑highest chance‑creation output in the squad behind Chastity Grant.
Brighton – Kiko Seike
Kiko Seike arrives at Villa Park as Brighton’s sharpest goal threat, with 4 goal contributions in her last 5 appearances (3 goals, 1 assist). She is their leading WSL scorer with 5 goals, while also ranking second for chances created (16) and first for big chances created (4), making her the natural focal point for Brighton.
Most likely scorelines: 1–1, 2–1, 1–0.
Chelsea vs West Ham United
Sun 12 Jan, 02:00 PM | Cherry Red Records Fans’ Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: CHE 82% – 12% draw – 6% WHU
Chelsea come into this after an emphatic 1–9 away win over Liverpool, with a big attacking statement in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. Confidence should be sky-high, and they will be looking to carry that ruthless edge at home this weekend.
West Ham United travel for this after a heavy 1–5 home defeat to Manchester City in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. They will be looking to restore some defensive order on their travels this weekend.
Key numbers
Chelsea: 2nd (24 pts) | Form: W–L–D–D–W | xG 22.9 / xGA 10.9 / xGD +12 (+1.09 per match) | Squad value: €11.870m
West Ham United: 11th (5 pts) | Form: D–L–W–D–L | xG 12 / xGA 21.2 / xGD -9.2 (-0.84 per match) | Squad value: €1.770m
Head-to-head: Last 15 WSL meetings – Chelsea 13 wins, draws 2, West Ham United 0; goals 47–8.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
Chelsea love shooting from distance – and West Ham keep letting teams do exactly that.
Why this matters: This isn’t just “Chelsea like having a pop from 25 yards.” West Ham’s defensive setup practically invites the exact shots Chelsea are most comfortable taking. Even when these don’t fly in, they create chaos – deflections, rebounds, and corners that pile on even more pressure.
Chelsea: Shots Outside Box 61 (most in WSL)
West Ham: Long Range Shots Faced 53 (most conceded)
🔍 Key players to watch
Chelsea – Johanna Rytting Kaneryd
Johanna Rytting Kaneryd comes into this one as Chelsea’s most in‑form attacker, with 6 goal contributions in her last 4 appearances (4 goals, 2 assists), including a hat‑trick in the recent 9–1 League Cup demolition of Liverpool. Operating from the right and cutting in to shoot or combine around the edge of the box, she is perfectly suited to exploit a West Ham side that concedes a high volume of long‑range efforts.
West Ham United – Riko Ueki
Riko Ueki comes into this one as West Ham’s most in‑form attacker, with 5 goal contributions in her last 4 appearances (2 goals, 3 assists) and a team‑high creative load. She is joint‑top for chances created for West Ham this season (17), underlining her dual role as both finisher and provider in a side that will need her efficiency to make rare attacks count at Kingsmeadow.
Most likely scorelines: 3–0, 2–0, 4–0.
Liverpool vs London City Lionesses
Sun 12 Jan, 02:00 PM | Totally Wicked Stadium | BBC
Model win probabilities: LIV 16% – 33% draw – 51% LCL
Liverpool come into this after a brutal 1–9 home defeat to Chelsea in the Women’s League Cup on 21 December 2025. They will be desperate for a reset with a response needed at home this weekend.
London City Lionesses travel for this after a narrow 1–0 away defeat to Leicester City, in the WSL on 14 December 2025. They will be looking to bounce back quickly and turn performance into points on their travels this weekend.
Key numbers
Liverpool: 12th (3 pts) | Form: D–L–L–D–D | xG 8 / xGA 17 / xGD -9 (-0.81 per match) | Squad value: €3.070m
London City Lionesses: 6th (15 pts) | Form: L–L–W–W–L | xG 15.8 / xGA 19.5 / xGD -3.7 (-0.34 per match) | Squad value: €2.455m
Head-to-head: 1 WSL meeting — Liverpool 0 wins, draws 0, London City Lionesses 1; goals 0–1.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
Lionesses create chances like a top-four side… but finish like they’re fighting relegation.
Why this matters: London City will get plenty of opportunities to put Liverpool away, but here’s the big question: can they actually take them? Their big-chance conversion is the worst in the league. Liverpool on the other hand, have conceded a lot of big chances. Miss your chances against a desperate team, and they'll somehow find a way to stay alive.
London City: Big Chances Created 28 (4th best) | Big Chance Conversion 50.0% (worst in WSL)
Liverpool: Big Chances Conceded 30 (10th of 12).
🔍 Key players to watch
Liverpool – Beata Olsson
Beata Olsson is Liverpool’s standout attacking spark, leading them for WSL goals with 5 and posting 3 goal contributions in her last 4 appearances (2 goals, 1 assist). If anything is going to happen for Liverpool, you really do not need to look much further than Olsson.
London City – Kosovare Asllani
Kosovare Asllani is London City’s main creative outlet, ranking second in the WSL for chances created with 27, just behind Mariona Caldentey on 28, and acting as the side’s primary source of final‑third invention.
Most likely scorelines: 0–1, 0–0, 1–1.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leicester City
Sun 12 Jan, 02:00 PM | The BetWright Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: TOT 46% – 34% draw – 20% LEI
Key numbers
Tottenham Hotspur: 5th (20 pts) | Form: D–W–D–L–W | xG 12.9 / xGA 20 / xGD -7.1 (-0.64 per match) | Squad value: €3.360m
Leicester City: 9th (9 pts) | Form: W–L–L–D–L | xG 7.1 / xGA 18.5 / xGD -11.3 (-1.03 per match) | Squad value: €1.185m
Head-to-head: Last 9 WSL meetings — Tottenham Hotspur 7 wins, draws 2, Leicester City 0; goals 12–4.
🔍 Key Stat to Watch
Leicester’s keeper workload is the highest in the league – and Spurs are decent at forcing saves.
Why this matters: Leicester have needed their GK far more than anyone else so far. Spurs don’t create loads of big chances, but they do force a steady stream of saves – exactly the kind of game Leicester have been living on.
Leicester: Saves Made 50 (1st)
Tottenham: Shots Saved by Opp Keeper 27 (5th)
🔍 Key players to watch
Tottenham Hotspur – Olivia Holdt
Olivia Holdt comes into this one as Spurs’ most in‑form player, with 3 goal contributions in her last 3 appearances (1 goal, 2 assists). She is also the 2nd most created Spurs player with 10 chances created in the league so far, behind only Amanda Nilden (15).
Leicester City – Janina Leitzig
Janina Leitzig arrives as Leicester’s standout performer, facing one of the heaviest workloads in the league and already made 50 saves, making her central to keeping them in games where their defensive numbers are stretched and especially important against a Spurs side that generates a steady stream of efforts on goal.
Most likely scorelines: 0–0, 1–0, 1–1.
Final Word
The model expects the leaders to largely take care of business: Manchester City and Chelsea are seen as dominant home favourites, and Arsenal carry the edge in the weekend’s marquee top-four clash against Manchester United.
Where this round could swing is in the middle: Aston Villa vs Brighton and Tottenham vs Leicester are both set up for low-margin outcomes, with draws and one-goal wins featuring heavily in the most likely scorelines.
At the bottom, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton are all facing opponents with far stronger underlying numbers – points would be a bonus, but even keeping games close matters as the table begins to stretch.
Data sources: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FotMob
If this breakdown was useful, please subscribe and share, and join the conversation on X (Twitter) @WSLAnalytics for live insights all weekend.