2025–26 WSL Gameweek 11 Preview & Predictions
United face Tottenham in top-five clash, while City, Chelsea, and Arsenal target favorable matchups. Bottom two West Ham and Liverpool meet in crucial relegation battle.
🌍 Weekend Landscape
This round puts all of the current top four under the spotlight again. Manchester City (1st, 27 pts), Chelsea (2nd, 21), Manchester United (3rd, 20) and Arsenal (4th, 19) each face opponents sitting between 5th and 9th in the table – Tottenham Hotspur, Brighton, Aston Villa and Everton respectively – a cluster of fixtures that will test both title credentials and European ambitions.
Just behind them, Tottenham (5th, 19 pts), London City Lionesses (6th, 15), Brighton (7th, 14) and Aston Villa (8th, 13) are all involved in games that will shape the race for the top half, while Everton (9th, 8) try to pull away from danger.
At the bottom, Leicester City (10th, 6 pts), West Ham United (11th, 4) and Liverpool (12th, 2) face huge pressure: Leicester host London City, while West Ham vs Liverpool is a classic six-pointer.
On the numbers, the model’s heaviest favourites this weekend are Manchester City (76% home win probability), Arsenal (75% away win), Manchester United (72% home win) and Chelsea (69% away win). Leicester vs London City and West Ham vs Liverpool are much more finely balanced, with probabilities clustering around the 40–30–30 band and most likely scorelines suggesting tight, low-margin contests.
Match by Match Preview
Everton vs Arsenal
Sat 13 Dec, 12:00 PM | Goodison Park | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: EVE 10% – 15% draw – 75% ARS
Everton
Everton come into this after a 1–0 away win over Chelsea in the league on 7 December, having previously won 3–1 away to Newcastle United in the League Cup on 23 November.
In the league they sit 9th with 8 points from 10 matches (record 2–2–6), scoring 13 and conceding 19 (goal difference –6, 0.8 points per match).
Their recent WSL form reads W–L–L–D–L, a run that mixes that big result at Kingsmeadow with ongoing inconsistency. Under the hood their xG difference stands at –8.8 (–0.88 per match), reflecting persistent issues at both ends.
Key players: their top scorer is Ornella Vignola (4 goals), who also leads their chance creation charts with 8 chances created, while Martina Fernandez has supplied 2 assists.
Arsenal
Arsenal travel for this after a 1–0 home win over FC Twente in the Champions League on 9 December, having previously beaten Liverpool 2–1 at home in the league on 6 December.
They currently sit 4th with 19 points from 10 matches (record 5–4–1), with 20 goals scored and 9 conceded (goal difference +11, 1.9 points per match).
Their recent WSL form reads W–D–D–W–W, underlining a side that has tightened up and is generally trending in the right direction.
Key players: Stina Blackstenius leads the scoring with 5 goals, Beth Mead has 4 assists, and Mariona Caldentey remains their main creative hub with 25 chances created.
Squad Value Snapshot
Everton ~€1.50m vs Arsenal ~€9.44m – roughly 6× higher for Arsenal in terms of squad valuation.
Recent WSL History
Arsenal have dominated this fixture in recent league meetings, winning 13 of the last 15, with Everton yet to register a home win over this period. The aggregate scoreline stands at 35–7 in Arsenal’s favour.
Key Stat to Watch
On current league numbers Arsenal are operating on a different tier: their xG difference of +10.4 (1.04 per match) is almost 2 expected goals per game better than Everton’s −8.8 (−0.88), and they are taking more than twice as many points per match (1.9 vs 0.8). If that underlying gap shows up again here, Arsenal should be able to tilt territory and shot quality heavily in their favour – leaving Everton needing either an exceptional defensive display or extreme efficiency with the few chances they create to change the script.
Prediction
The model views this as one of the weekend’s more one-sided contests: 75% away win probability, 10% for an Everton victory and 15% for the draw. The most likely scorelines are 0–2, 0–3 and 1–2, all pointing towards a controlled Arsenal win if they maintain their current level.
Leicester City vs London City Lionesses
Sun 14 Dec, 11:55 AM | King Power Stadium | Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: LEI 31% – 27% draw – 43% LCL
Leicester City
Leicester City come into this after a 0–3 home defeat to Manchester City in the league on 7 December, having previously lost 4–1 away to Brighton & Hove Albion in the league on 16 November.
They sit 10th with 6 points from 10 matches (record 1–3–6), with 6 goals scored and 20 conceded (goal difference –14, 0.6 points per match).
Recent WSL form of L–L–D–L–D highlights a side that finds it hard to generate momentum and struggles badly once behind. Their xG difference of –11.0 (–1.1 per match) underlines the scale of the task they face.
Key players: Noemie Mouchon is their leading scorer with 2 goals, Emily van Egmond has 1 assist, and Samantha Tierney has created 12 chances – a key outlet in advanced areas.
London City Lionesses
London City Lionesses travel for this after a 1–0 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in the league on 7 December, having previously won 2–0 away to Ipswich Town in the League Cup on 23 November.
In the league they are 6th with 15 points from 10 matches (record 5–0–5), scoring 14 and conceding 20 (goal difference –6, 1.5 points per match).
Their recent WSL form reads L–W–W–L–W, capturing their high-variance profile – capable of strong wins but open enough to concede in bunches. Their xG difference of –4.0 (–0.4 per match) points to a side that often lives on fine margins.
Key players: Isobel Goodwin is their leading scorer with 3 goals, Freya Godfrey has 2 assists, while Kosovare Asllani is the main creative force with 26 chances created – the highest in the league.
Squad Value Snapshot
Leicester City ~€1.01m vs London City Lionesses ~€2.30m – around 2.3× higher for London City, reflecting a modest but notable resource gap.
Recent WSL History
This is the first ever WSL meeting between Leicester City and London City Lionesses, so there is no recent league head-to-head to draw on.
Key Stat to Watch
Both sides are conceding 2.0 goals per league game on average (20 in 10), but London City Lionesses have scored more than twice as many as Leicester – 14 vs 6 – which translates into 1.5 vs 0.6 points per match in the table. If that pattern holds, LCL’s extra firepower should tell, leaving Leicester needing to be far more clinical than usual to stay in the game.
Prediction
The model gives a slight edge to the visitors: 43% away win, 31% home win and 27% draw. The most likely scorelines are 1–1, 0–1 and 1–0, underlining how finely balanced this fixture is and how easily it could swing on a single moment at either end.
West Ham United vs Liverpool
Sun 14 Dec, 11:55 AM | Chigwell Construction Stadium | Sky Sports | YouTube
Model win probabilities: WHU 37% – 26% draw – 37% LIV
West Ham United
West Ham come into this after a 2–1 away defeat to Manchester United in the league on 7 December, having previously lost 2–0 away to Portsmouth in the League Cup on 23 November.
They are 11th with 4 points from 10 matches (record 1–1–8), with 7 goals scored and 22 conceded (goal difference –15, 0.4 points per match). Their recent WSL form of L–W–D–L–L shows just one league win in the last five and ongoing defensive issues – their xG difference sits at –9.5 (–0.95 per match).
Key players: Shekiera Martinez is their leading scorer with 3 goals, Riko Ueki has provided 3 assists, and Viviane Asseyi remains a key creative outlet with 16 chances created.
Liverpool
Liverpool travel for this after a 2–1 away defeat to Arsenal in the league on 6 December, having previously won 4–1 away to Sheffield United in the League Cup on 22 November.
In the WSL they are 12th with 2 points from 10 matches (record 0–2–8), scoring 6 and conceding 19 (goal difference –13, 0.2 points per match). Their recent league form reads L–L–D–D–L – a slight improvement in terms of drawing a couple of games, but still without a first league win. Their xG difference is now –7.9 (–0.79 per match), highlighting structural deficiencies at both ends that the postponed fixture has only reinforced in the numbers.
Key players: Beata Olsson leads the way with 4 league goals, while Ceri Holland has 2 assists and 9 chances created as the main midfield engine.
Squad Value Snapshot
West Ham United ~€1.56m vs Liverpool ~€2.67m – roughly 1.7× higher for Liverpool on squad valuation, pointing to a small but real resource edge for the visitors.
Recent WSL History
Liverpool have had the better of recent league meetings, winning 5 of the last 10, with West Ham taking 1 victory and 4 draws between them. The aggregate scoreline across those matches is 13–8 in Liverpool’s favour.
Key Stat to Watch
Between them, West Ham and Liverpool have taken just 6 points from 20 league games, with a combined goal difference of −28 (13 scored, 41 conceded). With both sides defending poorly, the first team to tighten up at the back – or simply get to two goals – is likely to grab a season-shaping three points.
Prediction
The model effectively splits the difference: 37% home win, 37% away win and 26% draw. The most likely scorelines are 1–1, 0–1 and 1–0. For two sides in the bottom two, this looks like a genuine toss-up and a high-leverage fixture in the fight to get off the foot of the table.
Brighton vs Chelsea
Sun 14 Dec, 12:00 PM | Broadfield Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: BHA 13% – 18% draw – 69% CHE
Brighton
Brighton come into this after a 1–0 away win over London City Lionesses in the league on 7 December, having previously beaten Leicester City 4–1 at home in the league on 16 November.
They are 7th with 14 points from 10 matches (record 4–2–4), scoring 14 and conceding 10 (goal difference +4, 1.4 points per match). Recent form of W–W–D–L–L indicates a team that has found some stability again after a rough patch, backed by a positive xG difference of +1.9 (0.19 per match).
Key players: Kiko Seike is their top scorer with 4 goals, Nadine Noordam leads on 4 assists, and Marisa Olislagers has created 18 chances from wide areas.
Chelsea
Chelsea travel for this after a 6–0 home win over Roma in the Women’s Champions League on 10 December, having previously lost 1–0 at home to Everton in the league on 7 December.
In the WSL they are 2nd with 21 points from 10 matches (record 6–3–1), scoring 16 and conceding 6 (goal difference +10, 2.1 points per match). Their recent league form reads L–D–D–W–W – not quite their usual relentless pace, but still firmly within title-contending territory, underpinned by an xG difference of +10.5 (1.05 per match).
Key players: Agnes Beever-Jones leads the scoring with 4 goals, Wieke Kaptein has 3 assists, and Erin Cuthbert has created 15 chances as the main midfield conductor.
Squad Value Snapshot
Brighton ~€2.02m vs Chelsea ~€11.88m – almost 6× higher for Chelsea, one of the bigger valuation gaps in this gameweek.
Recent WSL History
Chelsea have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 9 of the last 13 meetings, with Brighton taking 1 victory and 3 draws. The aggregate scoreline is 30–11 in Chelsea’s favour.
Key Stat to Watch
Chelsea’s underlying numbers are ruthless: their xG difference of +10.5 (1.05 per match) is over five times Brighton’s +1.9 (0.19), and they are averaging 2.1 vs 1.4 points per game. If that process gap shows up again, Chelsea should dictate territory and chance quality, leaving Brighton needing an unusually clinical display on the break or from set pieces to take anything.
Prediction
The model makes Chelsea strong favourites with a 69% chance of an away win, 13% on a home win and 18% for the draw. The most likely scorelines are 0–2, 1–2 and 0–1, suggesting Brighton will need to be highly efficient at both ends to upset the odds.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Sun 14 Dec, 12:00 PM | Joie Stadium | Sky Sports
Model win probabilities: MCI 76% – 15% draw – 9% AVL
Manchester City
Manchester City come into this after a 3–0 away win over Leicester City in the league on 7 December, having previously recorded a 2–0 away victory over Nottingham Forest in the League Cup on 22 November.
They top the table in 1st place with 27 points from 10 matches (record 9–0–1), scoring 26 and conceding 9 (goal difference +17, 2.7 points per match). Their recent WSL form is immaculate: W–W–W–W–W, backed by the strongest underlying numbers in the division with an xG difference of +17.8 (1.78 per match).
Key players: Khadija Shaw leads the league line with 8 goals, Kerstin Casparij has 4 assists from deeper areas, and Vivianne Miedema has created 16 chances.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa travel for this after a 2–1 away defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the league on 7 December, having previously drawn 3–3 at home with Birmingham City in the League Cup on 21 November, before losing 4–2 on penalties.
They are now 8th with 13 points from 10 matches (record 3–4–3), scoring 13 and conceding 12 (goal difference +1, 1.3 points per match). Their recent WSL form reads W–L–L–W–D – only one defeat in the last three and the postponed game helping to nudge them closer to the top-half pack. Their xG difference has improved to –1.9 (–0.19 per match), still slightly negative but much closer to parity than earlier in the season.
Key players: Kirsty Hanson is their leading scorer with 5 goals, while Chasity Grant has 2 assists and 15 chances created – a key creative outlet.
Squad Value Snapshot
Manchester City ~€7.33m vs Aston Villa ~€1.65m – more than 4× higher for City, in line with their status as title contenders.
Recent WSL History
City have dominated recent league meetings between these sides, winning 8 of the last 10, with Aston Villa taking 1 victory and 1 draw. The aggregate scoreline sits at 31–10 in City’s favour.
Key Stat to Watch
City’s underlying numbers are on a different level: their xG difference of +17.8 (1.78 per match) is almost 2 expected goals per game better than Villa’s −1.9 (−0.19), and they are taking 2.7 vs 1.3 points per match. If that process gap shows up again, City should dominate territory and shot volume, leaving Villa needing an ultra-clinical day to stay close.
Prediction
The model makes this one of the most lopsided fixtures of the round: 76% home win probability, 15% draw and just 9% for a Villa upset. The most likely scorelines are 2–0, 3–0 and 1–0, all pointing towards a controlled, multi-goal City win if they play to their usual standard.
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 14 Dec, 02:30 PM | Leigh Sports Village Stadium | BBC
Model win probabilities: MUN 72% – 18% draw – 11% TOT
Manchester United
Manchester United come into this after a 3–0 home defeat to Lyon in the UWCL on 10 December; they will be looking to put that loss behind them and get back to winning ways in the league.
In domestic play they are 3rd with 20 points from 10 matches (record 6–2–2), scoring 21 and conceding 10 (goal difference +11, 2.0 points per match). Their recent WSL form reads W–L–L–W–W, a slightly uneven sequence that nevertheless keeps them firmly in the title and Champions League conversation, backed by an xG difference of +5.4 (0.54 per match).
Key players: Melvine Malard is both their leading scorer (5 goals) and leading chance creator (15 chances), while Ella Toone has provided 5 assists.
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham travel for this after a 2–1 home win over Aston Villa in the league on 7 December; they will be looking to continue their impressive form.
Spurs sit 5th with 19 points from 10 matches (record 6–1–3), with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded (goal difference 0, 1.9 points per match). Their recent WSL form of W–D–L–W–L reflects a stop–start rhythm, but they remain firmly in the top-half mix despite an xG difference of –2.9 (–0.29 per match) that hints at some over-performance or knife-edge games.
Key players: Cathinka Tandberg is their top scorer with 4 goals, Amanda Nildén has 2 assists and 14 chances created, anchoring much of their build-up.
Squad Value Snapshot
Manchester United ~€6.27m vs Tottenham Hotspur ~€2.29m – roughly 2.7× higher for United, reflecting their status as an established top-four side.
Recent WSL History
United have dominated this matchup in recent seasons, winning 10 of the last 12 league meetings, with Tottenham yet to record an away win in that span and 2 draws rounding out the record. The aggregate scoreline is 30–5 in United’s favour.
Key Stat to Watch
The table says there’s only a one-point gap (20 vs 19), but the process gap is much bigger: United’s xG difference is +5.4versus Spurs’ –2.9 (an 8.3 xG swing) and their goal difference +11 vs 0. If that shows up on the day, United should create the clearer chances, with Spurs needing another high-efficiency performance to keep it as close as the standings suggest.
Prediction
The model gives Manchester United a 72% chance of a home win, with 18% on the draw and 11% on an away victory for Spurs. The most likely scorelines are 2–0, 1–0 and 3–0, suggesting that if United manage the game well, their attack should generate enough to justify strong favouritism.
Final Word
On the numbers, this round looks set for the top four to tighten their grip. Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal are all heavily favoured (model win probabilities of 76%, 69%, 72% and 75% respectively) and will be expected to take care of business. If they do, the leading pack could start to open up daylight above the rest – especially with United hosting Spurs, where the result could either drag Tottenham deeper into the top-four race or allow United to pull away.
Two fixtures stand out as genuine coin-flips. West Ham vs Liverpool and Leicester vs London City are essentially balanced on paper, with probabilities clustering around the 40–30–30 range (West Ham vs Liverpool is split 37% each way for a win). The model’s most likely scorelines are narrow one-goal margins or draws, underlining how small moments or a single flash of quality could decide them.
At the bottom, this weekend could be pivotal. West Ham vs Liverpool guarantees at least one struggler will add to their tally (even a draw moves the needle slightly for both), while a first win of the season for Liverpool or a second for West Ham would be a major jolt in the relegation fight. Leicester and Everton, also in the lower reaches, face daunting top-four opponents – any point they can steal would be a huge bonus.
All told, Gameweek 11 should sharpen the WSL’s fault lines – whether the top four can assert their dominance, and which of the bottom sides can finally grab a lifeline as we hit the halfway mark.
Data sources: WSLAnalytics model | Squad values: Soccerdonna | Match stats: FBref & FotMob
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The xG differentials really tell the story here better than the standings do. That Man Utd vs Spurs analysis where theyre separated by 1 point but the underlying process shows an 8.3 xG gap is exactly the kind of insight that helps separate signal from noise. I remember working on a model for a mid-table club and we had the same issue where results masked serious structural issues that only showed up once you dug into shot quality and territroy control. Good stuff on highlighting the West Ham-Liverpool coinflip too.